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Israel Closer Than Ever To Getting Drawn Into The Syrian Conflict

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Multiple news outlets are reporting that Israeli military vehicles have occupied the Golan Heights after the region was hit by gunfire coming from neighboring Syria.

No injuries have been reported.

"A military vehicle traveling in the Golan was hit by gunfire from Syria. Apparently they were stray bullets, and there were no injuries", a military spokesman told AFP.

The Israeli army is on high alert. Since fighting has inched closer to Israel, Benny Gantz — the chief of Israel's armed forces — stated that his country could be drawn into the Syrian civil war if fighting between the rebels and regime forces moved close enough to Israel. Israel captured the strategically important Golan Heights from Syria during the Six-day war of 1967. Today, the region is a demilitarized buffer zone between Syria and Israel.

Earlier today, Al Arabiya reported that three Syrian tanks entered a demilitarized zone of the Golan Heights. Al Arabiya also reports that Israel has lodged a formal complaint with the United Nations.

An official with the U.N. body supervising the zone could not immediately confirm the entry of the tanks. 

If the report is true, it would be in violation of the disengagement accord between Syria and Israel agreed upon in 1974. It would be the first such violation in the zone since the agreement was made.

The Israeli Defense Force is stressing that it is highly unlikely that the military vehicle was the target, according to the Israeli website Ynet. Some posit that this relatively low-key response — turning to the U.N. — means Israel does not see the situation as an imminently dangerous. 

In October, the conflict in Syria spilled over into Turkey and led to the deaths of multiple Turkish citizens, prompting a military retaliation by Turkish forces.

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British PM David Cameron Supports Safe Haven And Possible Immunity For Bashar Al-Assad

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Asmaa Al Assad Bashar Al Assad Syria

British Prime Minister David Cameron said he would support granting President Bashar al-Assad a safe passage out of Syria to end the nation's bloodshed, in a television interview Tuesday.

Asked what he would say if Assad requested a safe exit, Cameron told Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV: "Done. Anything, anything to get that man out of the country and to have a safe transition in Syria."

"Of course, I would favour him facing the full force of international law and justice for what he's done," he said, according to a transcript of the interview made available to the press.

"I am certainly not offering him an exit plan to Britain but if wants to leave, he could leave, that could be arranged," he added.

Cameron who is on a tour of the Middle East, arrived on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia after concluding a two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates.

"I am very frustrated that we can't do more," Cameron said.

"This is an appalling slaughter that is taking place in our world today -- 40,000 lives lost already and you can see, on your television screens, night after night, helicopters, airplanes belonging to the Assad regime pounding his own country and murdering his own people," he said.

Cameron's official spokesman in London said the premier was reiterating London's position that Assad should face justice, but that the priority is for a transition in the war-torn country.

"He (Cameron) is reiterating our position which is that we want Assad to face the full force of international law for what he has done but our top priority is to see a transition in that country," the spokesman said.

"That transition cannot happen while Assad is in place and therefore we need him to go," he added.

In the interview, Cameron highlighted the need to help the opposition, without elaborating how.

"We must ask ourselves what more can we do: how can we help the opposition? How can we put the pressure on Assad? How can we work with partners in the region to turn this around?" Cameron said.

But when asked about arming the rebels, he said: "We are not currently planning to do that. We are a government under international law and we obey the law."

"My fear is, firstly, that the slaughter will continue, that the loss of life will continue. That should be our number one concern."

He said that Britain had provided aid to Syrian refugees worth £39 million ($62.3 million).

In August, Foreign Secretary William Hague said Britain would give Syria's rebels £5 million ($8 million) in assistance, including body armour and communications equipment, to use in their fight against Assad's forces.

Hague said at the time that weapons would not be provided but that Britain would step up contacts with opposition groups to lay the ground for a political solution.

The Syrian National Council umbrella opposition group is holding intensive talks in Qatar to broaden its membership to include other opposition factions as Washington mounted pressure for a wider representative body.

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Syrian Rebels Are Now Firing Directly At Assad's Palace

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As the world was eagerly awaiting the results of last nights U.S. presidential election, Syrian rebels planned a major offensive, bombing a hilltop area in Damascus mostly populated by members of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect.

Reports of the attack offer slightly conflicting details of what actually occurred.

What is clear is that bombs were fired into the Muhajireen neighborhood in central Damascus, aimed at one of Bashar al-Assad's two palaces. Most reports claim that Assad's home was not hit — a claim which Bassam al-Dada, an adviser to the commander of the Free Syrian Army, Col. Riad al-Assad, confirmed to the Associated Press. But Israel National News cites unconfirmed reports that claim Assad's palace was actually hit.

The rebels in Damscus also planted  explosives under the car of Judge Abad Nadhwah today, which killed him instantly after they were detonated.

“This was a very special operation that was planned for a while,” al-Dada added. The AP also reports that rebels bombed a Palestinian refugee camp in Syria as well.

Rebels also shelled the Mazzeh military airport, according to Haaretz and Al Arabiya. State-run media claims that three were killed in Mazzeh, according to Reuters (which Haaretz and Al Arabiya also reported).

The attacks seem to be a form of retribution. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Local Coordination Committees claims that the Syrian military has killed 18 people while shelling the suburb of Beit Saham this week.

Russia's Latest Move Shows Its Support For Assad Is Waning >

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Vows To Die In Syria

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday rejected calls that he seek a safe exit, vowing he would "live in Syria and die in Syria" in an interview with Russian-backed international channel RT.

"I am not a puppet. I was not made by the West to go to the West or to any other country," Assad, who is facing a nearly 20-month revolt against his rule, told the channel in English, according to transcripts posted on the state-backed Russian news channel's website.

"I am Syrian, I was made in Syria, I have to live in Syria and die in Syria," he said.

British Prime Minister David Cameron on Tuesday floated the idea of granting Assad safe passage from the country, saying it "could be arranged" though he wanted the Syrian leader to face international justice.

Assad also warned against a foreign intervention to deal with Syria's escalating conflict, saying such a move would have global consequences and shake regional stability.

"We are the last stronghold of secularism and stability in the region... it will have a domino effect that will affect the world from the Atlantic to the Pacific," he said.

"I do not think the West is going (to intervene), but if they do so, nobody can tell what is next," Assad said.

In a separate video extract of the interview, Assad also said: "The price of this invasion, if it happens, is going to be big, more than the whole world can afford."

Many in Syria's opposition, including armed rebels waging fierce battles with pro-regime forces, have urged the international community to intervene to stop escalating bloodshed in the country that rights groups say has left more than 37,000 people dead.

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Israel Fires Into Syria For The First Time Since 1973

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Israeli troops fired warning shots into Syria Sunday, the army said in a statement, in what public radio said was the first Israeli fire directed at the military in the Golan Heights area since the 1973 war.

"A short while ago, a mortar shell hit an IDF post in the Golan Heights adjacent to the Israel-Syria border, as part of the internal conflict inside Syria. In response, IDF soldiers fired warning shots towards Syrian areas," the army said in a statement.

Military sources told AFP that the army used a single Tamuz anti-tank missile, a weapon known for being highly accurate.

In addition, the army said in its statement it had filed a complaint through the local UN forces, warning that "fire emanating from Syria into Israel will not be tolerated and shall be responded to with severity."

Earlier on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "closely monitoring what is happening on our border with Syria and there too we are ready for any development."

Sunday's cross-border fire was the latest in a string of incidents in which fire has spilled from Syria across the ceasefire line.

On Thursday, three stray mortar rounds from Syria hit the Golan, which Israel seized from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war and annexed in 1981 in a move never recognised by the international community.

And on Monday, an Israeli military vehicle patrolling the buffer zone was hit by gunfire, with the army acknowledging it was caused by "stray bullets."

No one was wounded, but the incident prompted an Israeli complaint to the United Nations Security Council in which it described the gunfire as a "grave violation" of a 1974 agreement on security in the buffer zone.

Two days earlier, three Syrian tanks entered Bir Ajam village, five kilometres (three miles) southeast of Quneitra, in the demilitarised zone, sparking another Israeli complaint to the UN.

Since Israel and Syria signed the 1974 disengagement agreement, a 1,200-strong unarmed UN force has patrolled the buffer zone.

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Disturbing Fake Videos Are Making The Rounds In Syria

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ALEPPO, Syria — Videos posted to the internet have played a key propaganda role in Syria's bloody civil war. The footage typically shows brutal attacks, beatings and mass executions. Many clips show rows of dead women and children.

But are these videos reliable?

Last month, a fighter in Aleppo handed a reporter his cell phone, shaking his head in disbelief. “Assad, Assad,” he said.

On the screen was a video of someone beheading a prisoner with a chainsaw. It had been circulating in Syria for at least a year. The footage itself is very real, but it is five years old, and was shot in Mexico. Drug lords carried out the crime. The video has been used by rebels in conflicts all over the world.

The sham videos can have very real effects, creating sympathy for one side or the other. Last week, the United Nations accused the rebels of war crimes, based on a YouTube video of fighters executing prisoners. This type of atrocity makes intervention less appealing to the West.

While that video appears to have been real, many other bogus ones have found their way onto major television networks in the United States and beyond, and are spread widely by social media. It’s not uncommon for the two sides to use the same footage to make opposite claims.

Here is a look at some of the most widely seen — fake or misrepresented — footage and images being used by both sides of the Syrian conflict.

This video posted on YouTube in March by opposition supporters announced the formation of an impressive new Free Syrian Army Special Forces unit. Several months later, the New York Times exposed a fatal flaw. After close analysis, an expert at the Royal Armories in Leeds, a British weapons museum, identified the menacing looking guns. The 11 masked men held in their hands TD-2007’s, Chinese-made toy replicas that are “appropriate for children above the age of 5.”

Almost everyone has been fooled by these videos at some point. Footage claiming to show Syrian soldiers beating detained protesters is actually from Lebanon, and shot four years ago. Still, it was aired by several major news networks in early May. Reuters also ran the video as footage from Syria. It appeared both with and without the warning that it “could not be independently verified.” The Australian Broadcasting Company, ABC, admitted their mistake and posted the above correction.

This is one of dozens of videos circulated by supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It claims to show opposition fighters staging scenes of airstrikes and massacres in Syria. It’s impossible to tell, however, whether those are rebels in the video or government supporters trying to discredit them.

After a massacre in the Syrian town of Houla in May, news sites scrambled to find photos to run with their stories. Marco di Lauro, a photographer for Getty, was shocked to find his 2003 image, taken in Iraq, posted under the headline, “Syria massacre in Houla condemned as outrage grows.” A Syrian activist had circulated the photo. And the BBC ran with it.

A Syrian activist posted this photo to Facebook, saying it was evidence that rebels had shot down a government fighter jet. It’s actually a picture from a Russian airshow. The misleading photo was flagged by the Aviationist blog on Sept. 10.

Six weeks after his disappearance, this disturbing video of American reporter Austin Tice was released by an unknown source on YouTube. Tice’s family confirmed his identity in the video, which appears to show him in the custody of Syrian extremists. On a closer look, however, the scene appears faked. The video has been traced back to social media accounts that support the Assad regime and experts have pointed to a number of inconsistencies. Most likely, the Assad government faked the video to make its case that terrorists had infiltrated the country.

This video is a report by Syrian state television. The reporter says rebel “terrorists” killed the people shown in the video. The reporter can be seen walking through the street calmly interviewing the injured. But is it real?

This is the same video posted by Syrian activists claiming government soldiers killed the same people. The activists question why the reporters in the state television piece are not helping the injured woman. Who should we believe?

This video of Syrian forces allegedly burying alive an opposition activist has also raised suspicion as to it's authenticity. Discrepancies in the sound and a dramatic cut at the end have led many to label the footage fake. Storyful analyzed its credibility.

In this video, also aired on Syrian state television, a Syrian claiming to be a resident of Homs says that the Al Jazeera cable network is broadcasting false reports about ongoing conflict in the city’s center. He films the Al Jazeera report on his television, which shows a destroyed city filled with smoke, and then pans to his window to reveal a calm street. A blogger, however, later identified the man’s location as central Damascus.

One of the most disturbing fake video claims is a combination of two videos posted separately by opposition activists. The first shows rebel forces holding 16 prisoners in or near Damascus. A later video posted by activists appears to show the same men bound with their throats cut. The results are not conclusive. Other video of the same prisoners and the same bodies were uploaded around the same time between Aug. 14 and 18, but they have since been removed from YouTube, making clear identification almost impossible.

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US Citizen Fighting For Syrian Rebels Has Been Branded A 'Terrorist' By Assad Regime

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American Citizen and self professed "freedom fighter"Matthew VanDyke was shocked when TV broadcasts in Syria labeled him a 'terrorist,' but he wasn't surprised.

"I'm not the first one they've called a terrorist, and I won't be the last," he said in a recent FaceBook post.

VanDyke's expertise in Middle Eastern, specifically Libya and Syria, affairs was on the rise as he headed out to Syria to make a film about the Free Syrian Army. The film wasn't his only objective though.

He also went to fight:

I wear a military uniform in Syria. I do this to protect journalists, at great risk to myself. I also wear a Free Syria flag patch on my body armor much of the time to clearly identify myself as pro-FSA. I am not a journalist and want to ensure that nobody mistakes me for one. Journalists do not make pro-FSA films to help the FSA recruit members and raise money to purchase weapons and ammunition.

VanDyke is no stranger to the fighting — he helped Libyans overthrow Gaddafi. About Libya and being a freedom fighter, VanDyke once told us at Business Insider that longtime friends from the country had called and said that family members were missing.

"That's when I called my mother and told her I was going to Libya," VanDyke said.

Then he fought on behalf of the Libyan revolution, was even captured and held in solitary confinement. Now he's in the process of making a film he openly calls "Pro-FSA." VanDyke has no qualms showing where his allegiances lie.

From Facebook:

"When we are under attack and I fear being captured, I don't ditch my uniform and change into civilian clothes. I continue to wear the uniform and stand with the fighters around me - I don't sneak off and change into clothes to blend in with the journalists."

VanDyke's recent twitter posts indicate that people are recognizing him on the streets, because the high-visibility TV broadcast effectively shot his photo around the whole country.

"Some people on the street have already recognized me from the television reports (numerous broadcasts on 4 different channels — Akhmariya Suria, Dunya, Sama, Khabar). I am now more of a target than ever. I'm not sure how much the regime would pay for my capture or death at this point," says VanDyke in the post.

He vows to keep fighting though, and to keep producing his documentary, though he's not a journalist, and continuously reaffirms this point — he got the label during his tenure in solitary under Gaddafi's forces.

The media created the myth that I was a journalist in Libya, and then when I returned to the front lines in Libya after escaping from prison some in the media tried to hang me with the very same myth they had created.

VanDyke prides himself as an Middle East analyst and freedom fighter above all, and vows to continue his work, despite resistance from the media or, worse yet, overt targeting on behalf of the Assad government.

"This won't affect my work, I will not alter my schedule and I will finish the film before going to Libya to give a speech at the Libya Summit in Tripoli, as planned," VanDyke wrote in his latest Facebook post.

NOW SEE: We're starting to find out why Obama wants to hide these operations in Libya >

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How The Syrian Conflict Is Going To End

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has assumed personal command of the military and in spite of numerous signs that his grip of power has loosened significantly, he has vowed to fight to the death to remain in control of the country.

Assad's regime is being propped up by both Iran and Russia while the rebels are backed by the West and various Gulf stateswhich guarantees that the two sides will have the confidence to fight for every inch for the foreseeable future.

But it's been 19 months since the civil war began, and something's got to give. And when it does, these are some possible scenarios: 

1) Assad is killed.

If Assad is killed, the regime will likely fall and the rebels could claim victory. That would lead to an attempt at a transitional government, likely composed of members from the newly formed Syrian National Council, despite its immediate problems and the fact that jihadists have been the most organized rebel force up to this point

The Guardian reports that Free Syrian Army (FSA) joint command spokesman Fahad al-Masrai said someone in Assad's inner circle will off him.

"Bashar will not leave Syria alive," al-Masrai said. "He will be killed but not by the rebel. He is more likely to be assassinated by his close circle. They are beginning to realize the risk of being involved with his crimes, and will get rid of him."

2) It becomes a regional war.

“One of the solutions of the Syrian conflict is to move it outside Syria,” Gen. Wissam al-Hassan, the head of Lebanon’s national police intelligence unit, told The Washington Post a month before he was killed in a car bombing in Beirut. "He survives by making it a regional conflict."

A truly dangerous scenario would be if it went from a proxy war to a full-blown world war with Iran-Syria-Russia on against the West and its Gulf allies.

3) The U.S. and/or NATO intervenes.

Either because the fighting spilled over into Turkey or Assad's chemical weapons elicit an international response.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) joint command is hopeful there would be a no-fly zone imposed on the border of Syria and Turkey, so direct NATO intervention may be imminent.

"I am certain that a no-fly zone will be first imposed along the Syrian border to depths of between 10km and 20km," Fahad al-Masrai, citing secret talks between the backers of the oppositions and the FSA.

In August President Barack Obama said that Syria would face American military intervention it moved or prepared for use its chemical weapons, and the U.S. has sent troops to the Jordan-Syria border.

4) The Syrian military crumbles.

Syria has already seen a high number of prominent military defections.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson told BI that Syria's central and military authority suddenly falling apart would lead to "catastrophic flows of refugees [and] catastrophic numbers of people to feed and take care of medically" and could lead to the "loss of control of these frightening [chemical] weapons that Assad and his father developed over the course of many years" and/or the destabilization of the entire region.

Syria would then turn into a free-for-all, according to Israeli Arab affairs expert and former intelligence officer Dr. Mordechai Kedar, as the various ethnic groups in the country—including Alawites, Kurds, Druzes, Christians, Sunnis and Salafists—establish their own lands and vie for control in a power vacuum.

5) Assad takes David Cameron's deal.

Last week British Prime Minister David Cameron said he would support granting President Bashar al-Assad a safe passage out of Syria to end the nation's bloodshed. This great compromise is not likely since Assad vowed he would never leave Syria alive, but he could change his mind.

Whatever happens, Syrian civilians have a long road ahead with the country's two largest cities being destroyed in the protracted conflict.

"It will be cold, people won't have food and what is already a deeply suffering country will be suffering quite a bit more," Wilson said.

SEE ALSO: How US Ambassador Chris Stevens May Have Been Linked To Jihadist Rebel In Syria >

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Syrian Rebels Tighten The Noose On Assad

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Syrian rebels captured a helicopter base just ten miles east of Damascus on Sunday, the second military facility on the outskirts of the capital to fall to President Bashar al-Assad's opponents this month.

An Internet video which activists said was filmed at the Marj al-Sultan base showed rebel fighters carrying AK-47 rifles touring the facility. An anti-aircraft gun could be seen positioned on top of an empty bunker and a rebel commander was shown next to a helicopter.

"With God's help, the Marj al-Sultan airbase in eastern Ghouta has been liberated," the commander said in the video. Eastern Ghouta, a mix of agricultural land and built-up urban areas, has been a rebel stronghold for months.

Activists said two helicopters were destroyed in the attack as well as a radar station, and that 15 personnel were taken prisoner.

With severe restrictions by Syrian authorities on non-state media, independent verification was not possible.

Footage from Saturday evening showed rebels firing rocket-propelled grenades at the base, and what appeared to be a helicopter engulfed in flames.

Last week rebels briefly captured an air defence base near the southern Damascus district of Hajar al-Aswad, seizing weapons and equipment before pulling out to avoid retaliation from Mr Assad's air force.

Source: Reuters

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Medvedev Slams 'Unacceptable' Western Support For Syrian Rebels

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Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev slammed as "unacceptable" the recognition and support by France and other states of the Syrian opposition battling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

In a wide-ranging interview with Agence France-Presse and Le Figaro ahead of a visit to Paris starting Monday, Medvedev also spoke of the EU economic crisis as a "serious threat" and did not rule out returning to the Kremlin in the future.

Britain and France have joined Turkey and Arabian Peninsula states in recognising a newly formed opposition bloc as the sole representative of the Syrian people. Paris has also suggested arming the opposition fighters.

"From the point of view of international law, this is absolutely unacceptable," Medvedev said in the interview at his suburban Gorki residence.

"A desire to change the political regime of another state by recognising a political force as the sole carrier of sovereignty seems to me to be not completely civilized," he added.

France was the first Western state to recognise the newly-formed Syrian National Coalition as the sole representative of the Syrian people and was swiftly joined by Britain, Italy and the European Union.

Paris has also raised the idea of excluding defensive weapons for the rebels from the current blanket EU embargo on Syria.

"Let the Syrian people decide the personal fate of Assad and his regime," said Medvedev. It is preferable if they (the opposition forces) came to power legally and not because of deliveries of arms from other countries," he said.

--- 'A serious threat' ---

Medvedev said that Moscow was nervously watching the economic crisis in the European Union, which he said represented a serious threat to Russia's own economic performance.

"We see this as a very serious threat," said Medvedev. "We are to a large extent dependent on what happens in the economies of the EU."

Medvedev noted that EU states account for half of Russia's trade volume while Moscow holds some 41 percent of its foreign currency reserves in euros.

"We are watching nervously. Sometimes it seems our European partners lack the energy and will to take decisions. And there is that endless dispute of what is better, fiscal consolidation or development," said Medvedev.

"It seems our European partners are moving towards an agreement but the main thing is that it is not late," he added.

Medvedev said that Russia is paying particular attention to what he described as the "weak links" in the euro zone such as Greece and Spain.

But he emphasised that Russia has no intention of moving out of euros in its reserves even though he acknowledged bringing up the importance of the currency in conversations with EU leaders.

--- 'A river you can swim in twice' ---

Medvedev said he is not ruling out a return to the Kremlin after his 2008-2012 single term as Russian head of state but was happy working as premier under his mentor President Vladimir Putin.

"If I have sufficient strength and health, if our people trust me in the future with such a position, then of course I do not rule such a turn of events."

Medvedev served as president after Putin stepped aside following the maximum two consecutive terms allowed by the constitution after his 2000-2008 stint.

But Putin, 60, stayed on as a powerful prime minister and Medvedev, 47, never fully emerged from the shadow of his fellow Saint Petersburg native, an impression strongly reinforced when Putin returned to the Kremlin in May 2012.

"This (returning to the presidency) depends on a whole range of factors," Medvedev said.

"Never say never, especially as I swam in that river once and this is a river that you can swim in twice," he said.

Some of Medvedev's supporters -- who saw him as a possible champion of a refreshed, innovative and more pro-Western Russia -- were hugely disappointed by his apparent surrender of the Kremlin to Putin.

But Medvedev played up the tight links between the two men, saying: "I would hardly have become prime minister under another president, I cannot imagine it at all."

Medvedev has taken his distance from Putin however on some issues, notably the case of feminist punk rockers Pussy Riot, two of whom have been sent to prison camps for performing a song against the Russian strongman in a church.

Reaffirming his belief they should be released, he said: "I think they have already tasted what prison is... So further punishment in the form of prison is not necessary. This is my personal position."

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Russia Has Been Sending Syria Huge Amounts Of Cash To Keep Assad's Regime Afloat

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This past summer, as the Syrian economy began to unravel and the military pressed hard against an armed rebellion, a Syrian government plane ferried what flight records describe as more than 200 tons of “bank notes” from Moscow.

The records of overflight requests were obtained by ProPublica. The flights occurred during a period of escalating violence in a conflict that has left tens of thousands of people dead since fighting broke out in March 2011.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad is increasingly in need of cash to stay afloat and continue financing the military’s efforts to crush the uprising. U.S. and European sanctions, including a ban on minting Syrian currency, have damaged the country’s economy. As a result, Syria lost access to an Austrian bank that had printed its bank notes.

“Having currency that you can put into circulation is certainly something that is important in terms of running an economy and more so in an economy that is become more cash-based as things deteriorate,” said Daniel Glaser, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes.  “It is certainly something the Syrian government wants to do, to pay soldiers or pay anybody anything."

According to the flight records, which are in English and Farsi, eight round-trip flights between Damascus International Airport and Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport each carried 30 tons of bank notes back to Syria.

Syrian and Russian officials did not respond to ProPublica's questions about the authenticity and accuracy of the flight records. It is not possible to know whether the logs accurately described the cargo or what else might have been on board the flights. Nor do the logs specify the type of currency.

But ProPublica confirmed nearly all of the flights took place through international plane-tracking services, photos by aviation enthusiasts, and air traffic control recordings. 

Each time the manifest listed “Bank Notes” as its cargo, the plane traveled a circuitous route. Instead of flying directly over Turkish airspace, as civilian planes have, the Ilyushin-76 cargo plane, operated by the Syrian Air Force, avoided Turkey and flew over Iraq, Iran, and Azerbaijan.

The flight path between Syria and Russia described in the manifests.

Tensions have been rising between Syria and Turkey since the spring. Last month, Turkey forced down a Syrian passenger plane traveling from Moscow. Turkey suspected the flight of carrying military cargo but officials have not said what, if anything, was confiscated.

If the flight manifests are accurate, a total of 240 tons of bank notes moved from Moscow to Damascus over a 10-week period beginning July 9th and ending on September 15th.

U.S. officials interviewed said evidence of monetary assistance, like military cooperation, point to a pattern of Russian support for Assad that extends from concrete aid to protecting Syria from U.N. sanctions.

In September, 2011, six months into the violence, the European Union imposed sanctions that prohibited its members from minting or supplying new Syrian coinage or banknotes. In a statement, the EU said the sanctions aimed “to obstruct those who are leading the crackdown in Syria and to restrict the funding being used to perpetrate violence against the Syrian people.” At the time, Syria’s currency was being minted by Oesterreichische Banknoten- und Sicherheitsdruck GmbH, a subsidiary of Austria’s Central Bank.

President Obama has issued five Executive Orders that prevent members of the Assad regime from entering the United States and accessing the U.S. financial system.

 “Increasingly, it is more difficult to finance the war machine and the cost of the war is becoming more expensive for the Assad regime,” said one U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Targeted sanctions on those leading the violence are working and start to bite into their pocket books.”

Russia appears to be helping Syria blunt the impact of the sanctions.

This past June, Reuters reported that Russia had begun printing new Syrian pounds and that an initial shipment of bank notes had already arrived.  The report was denied by the Syrian Central Bank, which claimed the only new money in circulation were bills that had replaced damaged or worn bank notes. Such a swap, the bank contended, would have no effect on the economy.

On August 3rd, the official Syrian news agency SANA, reporting from a news conference in Moscow with Syrian and Russian economic officials, quoted Syrian officials acknowledging that Russia is printing money. Qadr iJamil, Syria’s deputy prime minister for Economic Affairs, was quoted by SANA as calling the deal with Russia a “triumph,” over sanctions.

Syrian Finance Minister Mohammad al-Jleilati said that Russia was providing both replacement notes and additional currency to, as SANA put it, “reflect the country’s changing GDP.”  

Al-Jleilati said the money would have no effect on inflation. Printing new notes beyond simply replacing old ones could undermine Syria’s already battered currency.

At the time of the meeting, at least 30 tons of currency had already been delivered, according to the flight records, and another 210 tons would be delivered in subsequent flights.

In its regional economic outlook released earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund noted that Syria’s currency has lost 44 percent of its value since March 2011, trading for about 70 pounds to the dollar compared with about 47 pounds when the conflict began.

Ibrahim Saif, a political economist based in Jordan and a resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center said 30 tons of bank notes twice a week is a significant amount for a country like Syria.

“I truly believe it’s not only that they’re exchanging old money for new notes. They are printing money because they need new notes,” Saif said.

“Most of the government revenue that comes from taxes, in terms of other services, it’s almost now dried up,” noted Saif. Yet, “they continue to pay salaries. They have not shown any signs of weakness in fulfilling their domestic obligations. The only way they can do this is to get some sort of cash in the market.”

Before the unrest broke out, Syria had about $17 billion in foreign currency reserves. Saif said he and other economists in the region estimate they now have about $6-8 billion in reserves, dwindling about $500 million a month for salaries and supplies to keep the government running.

In Moscow, the Syrian finance minister had said that his country required additional foreign currency reserves, which Russia may provide in the form of loans.

“It’s possible the Syrians are acquiring foreign currency reserves, either Euros or US dollars, which they would need to conduct any serious commerce,” said Juan Zarate, who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes during the Bush administration.

Zarate noted that other countries, when faced with economic sanctions, have leaned on allies for foreign currency reserves. China supplied North Korea with such funds in the past and Venezuela agreed to sell reserves to Iran.

Syria’s currency is still traded on open markets, but there is limited on-the-ground information about the economy, including inflation.  

Officials at the IMF “have not been able to get direct information about Syria for at least a year,” Masood Ahmed, director of the group’s Middle East and Central Asia department, told reporters at a conference in Tokyo last month.

Glaser, at Treasury, declined to put a figure on Syria’s current reserves but said the Syrian economy is suffering in part from a lack of tourism and a ban on oil sales, both of which provided Damascus with foreign currency. “There is significant inflation in the country. It can be caused by adding new currency or not having foreign reserves to prop up the existing currency.”

SEE ALSO: FORMER AMBASSADOR: Russia Is Caught On The Losing Side In The Syrian Civil War >

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The War For Syria Is Also A War For Iraq

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Syria

Divided by history, geography and God, Abu Mohammed and Abu Hamza both smoke Marlboro cigarettes and agree on one point: The war for Syria is also a war for Iraq.

Driven from their homes by the 2003 US-led war in Iraq, both men, now in their 40s, found refuge for themselves and their families in neighboring Syria.

Nearly a decade later, both are back in the country that once sheltered them.  

But this time their wives and children are no longer with them. The men are not in Syria to flee a war, but to fight one. Abu Mohammed, a Sunni, is training rebels in Aleppo. Abu Hamza, a Shiite, is battling alongside President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Damascus.

Syria's war is evolving into an extension of the Sunni-Shia violence that Washington unleashed when it toppled Saddam Hussein.

“People ask me why a Sunni Iraqi is fighting in Syria and I have a simple answer: 'I am fighting in Syria to liberate my country, Iraq, from the pro-Iranian Shiite militia,” said Abu Mohammed, 46, dressed in military fatigues, with a short greying beard, cigarette in one hand, sniper rifle in the other.

Iraq, said Abu Mohammed, was now “occupied” by Shiite militias: The Mahdi Army, led by Iraqi cleric Muqtada Sadr who has long ties to Iran; the Badr Brigade, armed and trained in Iran and formerly the armed wing of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq; and Iran’s own Quds Force.

Abu Mohammed considers Syria’s Assad regime ― led by members of the Allawite sect, an ancient off-shoot of Shiite Islam ― to be another arm of Iran’s attempt to dominate the Sunni-majority Middle East.

Any war against Assad in Syria is thus a war against Iran’s proxies in Iraq.

“If the Syrians finish the Assad Allawite regime, then Iraqi Sunni can get more support from a new Sunni leader in Syria to finish the Iranian influence in Iraq,” he said.

One might expect such overtly sectarian rhetoric to be delivered in anger. But in an interview with GlobalPost in Aleppo, Abu Mohammed was the model of Arab hospitality, softly spoken and thoughtful.

As a former captain in Saddam Hussein’s security services, Abu Mohammed said he fled to Damascus with his wife and two children shortly after the 2003 invasion, via his home province of Anbar, the desert tribal region of western Iraq that borders Syria.

After receiving threats from what he said were Iraqi Shiite militias based in the southern suburbs of Damascus, Abu Mohammed moved his family north to Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, where the majority are conservative Sunnis.

There, in addition to starting a thriving business trading cotton socks and underwear between Aleppo and Baghdad, Abu Mohammed said he helped Islamist preachers smuggle Syrian and foreign extremists from Syria into Anbar to fight US-led troops. All of this, he said, was done with the consent of the then all-powerful Syrian security apparatus.

Abu Mohammed’s convergence of interest with the Assad regime quickly fell apart, however, after the brutal crackdown began in March 2011 on Syria’s mainly Sunni-led protest movement.

“I sent my family back to Iraq. For more than a year, Aleppo was away from the problems. But I saw how those Shiite shabiha (pro-regime militiamen) were setting up checkpoints and humiliating Sunni farmers. They put up posters of Iran’s (Ayatollah) Khamenei and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah. So I saw it was a sectarian war in Syria between the poor and weak Sunni protesters and the Assad regime, which is getting support from Iran, Hezbollah and Iraq’s (Prime Minister Nouri) Maliki,” he said.

Abu Mohammed said he now makes regular trips back to Anbar, sneaking across the border with help from Syrian rebels, to encourage members of his extended Dulaim Tribe to join the war in Syria.

“I am not a particularly religious man but I practice all Islamic rituals and duties. But I am considered very Sunni because of my tribe and how we suffered from Shiite groups in Iraq,” he said.

During the early years of the war, US officials knew Anbar as the heartland of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Al Qaeda found support in Anbar among Sunni tribesman who resented their loss of power after Saddam fell and Shiite death squads began sectarian cleansing in Baghdad’s Sunni-majority neighborhoods.

Abu Mohammed draws from his long years of experience in Saddam’s Baathist security services to help Syrian rebels in Aleppo create a “security apparatus” to root out regime spies.

“The intelligence war is very important these days,” Abu Mohammed said. “If we can destroy the headquarters of the security branches in Aleppo, then the whole city will be in our hands in a few days.”

“I am not fighting in Syria to make money,” he insisted when questioned about his source of finances. “I am here looking for jihad for God’s sake. I want to be a martyr, not a mercenary.”

In Damascus, two hundred miles south, and some 1,300 years along a different path of religious history, Abu Hamza al-Ta’ay also smoked as he discussed his role in Syria’s civil war.

A burly giant of a man with a shaved head, Abu Hamza dressed in the flowing black robes of a pious Shiite, a symbol of mourning for the death of Imam Ali, who Sunni believe was the fourth of Mohammed’s ‘rightly guided Caliphs,’ but who Shiites insist was his rightful successor.

Abu Hamza was shot in the leg fighting with the Mahdi Army during the May 2004 US assault on Karbala, an Iraqi city holy to Shiites. Afterward, he relocated to the Damascus suburb of Sayeda Zeinab, home to a shrine Shiites believe contains the remains of Prophet Mohammed’s granddaughter.

By 2009, Abu Hamza had moved back to Iraq. But it was to the same shrine in Sayeda Zeinab that he returned, with an estimated 500 to 600 other Iraqi fighters, this July. They came to protect it from the “heretic” Sunnis, he said.

“I kept my ties with the Mahdi Army but stopped any military action inside Iraq. I got married and had three children. I have a small shop in Karbala,” Abu Hamza told GlobalPost as he drank tea in a house near the shrine. “When the unrest began in Syria I was not interested in it, in the beginning. But later I and all Shiites began to see slogans (by protesters) such as ‘Not Iran nor Hezbollah. We want people who fear God.’ The protesters burned Iranian and Hezbollah flags. We saw them not as protesters, but as anti-Shiite.”

In the middle of the scorching Karbala summer, Abu Hamza said, he had a visit from one of his former Mahdi Army leaders.

“He told me I should travel to Syria to protect our shrines from the Damascene Nawasib (Heretics) who took the Caliphate from Imam Ali and killed his sons and grandsons and who today want to kick all Shiites out of Syria. I accepted it as a religious duty,” he said.

Arriving in Sayeda Zeinab after the long overland journey by car from Karbala, Abu Hamza said he was warmly welcomed. Members of the regime’s so-called Popular Committees, a civilian militia paid and armed by Assad’s security forces, gave him a Kalashnikov.

Daily patrols of the shrine and mundane searches soon became a battle battle with the mainly Sunni rebels from surrounding Sayeda Zeinab.

“We have experience in this kind of war and how to use heavy weapons,” he said. “We got support from the security services and the government army to face the attacks.”

Local people have grown increasingly hostile to Abu Hamza and his black-clad Iraqi militia.

“Most Iraqi Shiite left Sayeda Zeinab so we have become like strangers in the area. We are considered shabiha by the rebels and so should be killed. Syrians have begun to hate us and discriminate against us. They don’t accept to rent us their homes, sell us goods or even drive us in taxis. When I lived in Syria before, no one asked about my background. But today, it is clear Syrians began to hate Shiites, whether Syrian, Lebanese, Iraqi or Iranian.”  

While Abu Hamza and Abu Mohammed frame their fight as a religious duty, politics is never far away.

Just as in 2003, when Iraq’s future Shiite politicians were living in Damascus, awaiting the outcome of the US-led war in Iraq, so today Abu Hamza sees the political fate of Iraq’s Shiites as being decided in Syria.

“The future of Iraq’s Shiite political leaders will be decided in Syria,” he said. “If the Sunnis win then Iraqi Sunnis are going to lead Iraq again and be stronger because they will get big support from their Syrian brothers. Iran will be weaker and Hezbollah will lose its arms and support.”

SEE ALSO: How The Syrian Conflict Is Going To End >

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Syria Has Totally Shut Down Internet Across The Country

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According to US-based Internet monitoring sites, the internet in Syria has been completely shut down.

Rensey posted a note on its website today that said "in the global routing table, all 84 of Syria's IP address blocks have become unreachable, effectively removing the country from the Internet."

Internet monitoring company Akamai tweeted this chart from that shows the dramatic drop in Syrian internet traffic:

Syria Internet

Syria is in the midst of a bloody civil conflict that began with protests in March 2011. Activists believe around 40,000 people have been killed, the AP reports. Reuters is reporting that phone lines in Damascus are only working sporadically.

One remarkable feature of the war has been that the online proxy war between supporters of the regime and the Syrian rebels. As Max Fisher of the Washington Post points out, this may be why Bashar al-Assad's regime took so long to take this drastic step, why it's unclear who really gains from the action.

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The Turkish President Says A Syrian Attack On Turkey Would Be 'Madness'

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Turkish President Abdullah Gul said Thursday he considered a Syrian attack on Turkey unlikely because that would be "madness", as Ankara asked NATO to deploy surface-to-air missiles along their volatile border.

"I honestly think that a direct threat against Turkey by Syria is unlikely because that would be madness," Gul said, quoted by the Anatolia news agency.

He spoke a day after a team of NATO experts began a survey of sites near the Syrian border that would serve as suitable locations for the deployment of US-made Patriot missiles.

Gul said the deployment would be for defensive purposes only, calling it a "precautionary measure" to minimise any dangers emanating from Syria.

"An attack (by Turkey on Syria) is out of the question," he added.

Turkey turned to its NATO allies and placed an official request for the deployment of Patriot missiles after a series of cross-border shellings, including an attack that left five civilians dead last month.

NATO has yet to formally respond to the request.

But the Syrian regime's allies Russia and Iran are deeply opposed to the move, fearing such a deployment could spark broader conflict.

The Patriots could be deployed in the southeastern provinces of Diyarbakir or Sanliurfa or Malatya in the east, which already hosts an early warning radar as part of NATO's missile defence system.

Turkey might receive up to six Patriot batteries and some 300 foreign troops to operate the system, which is expected to be supplied by The Netherlands or Germany, the two European providers of the US-made weapons.

Ankara has been strengthening its defences along the border with anti-aircraft batteries and tanks since June 22, when one of its F4 fighter jets was downed by Syria along with two pilots for a brief violation of Syrian airspace.

Last month, Syrian shells fired across the border killed five Turkish civilians including three children, prompting border units to retaliate against every shell to land in Turkey's territory.

After both incidents, Ankara asked the NATO military alliance to take measures to protect its border and contain the Syrian conflict, which has killed more than 40,000 people in 20 months and sent more than 120,000 refugees into Turkey.

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The Syrian Military Just Did Something No Other Force On The World Will Do Anymore

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land mine explosion

The Syrian regime was the only government in the world to lay new landmines this year, campaigners said Thursday as they issued an annual report on the use and effect of the devastating weapons.

Mark Hiznay, the editor of the report for the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), said the finding is a significant change from last year, when four governments laid mines, and represents the lowest number since the Ottawa Mine Ban Treaty was signed in 1997.

"This represents a milestone for us: having only one country using antipersonnel mines," he told reporters in Geneva at the unveiling of the 2012 Landmine Monitor report.

But even though only one government laid the lethal mines this year, the explosives were still used by non-state armed groups in six countries — Afghanistan, Colombia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and Yemen — up from four countries last year, the report said.

The ICBL's report hailed record high levels of funding for mine clearance and a dramatic reduction in the number of people killed by the explosive devices over the past decade.

These developments are "a testament to the achievements of the Mine Ban Treaty over the past 15 years and that's the good news," said Hiznay, who is also a senior arms researcher for Human Rights Watch.

Syria was also among the four countries singled out in last year's report, when the governments of Israel, Libya and Myanmar were found to have used landmines.

In Syria, at least 19 people were killed by the explosive devices in border-crossing areas during the first five months of the year, including a Landmine Monitor source who died while crossing a mine field in March, according to ICBL.

There had also been an incident in October, when Syrian troops abandoning a military position near the village of Khirbet al-Jouz close to the Turkish border had left behind up to 200 landmines, Hiznay said.

"Eventually, the villagers began finding them the hard way," he said.

The Syrian regime appeared to be using old stockpiles of the weapons produced by the Soviet Union in the 1980s, he said, adding that "there was "no indication of recent supplies."

While the number of countries laying new landmines might be low, 59 countries and six other areas were confirmed to have been affected by the deadly explosives this year, and mines were suspected in another 12 countries, the report said.

The ICBL said 4,286 people were killed by landmines worldwide last year — or nearly 12 deaths a day, compared to 32 in 2001.

The steady decrease in annual casualty rates in some of the world's most mine-affected countries, like Afghanistan and Cambodia, had however been offset by a "significant increase" in mine-linked deaths in countries like Libya, Sudan and Syria.

In Syria, the number of casualties had jumped from nine in 2010 to 20 last year, the ICBL said.

The organisation, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1997 for its efforts to rid the world of landmines, said a growing number of governments were signing on to the treaty, which now counts 160 signatory states.

International and national funding for mine clearing activities meanwhile reached an all-time high last year of around $662 million (511 million euros), ICBL said, while noting that funding for helping landmine survivors had fallen sharply to just $30 million in 2011.

As for landmine production, only India, Myanmar, Pakistan and South Korea appeared to still be actively producing antipersonnel mines, the report showed.

However, another eight countries still reserve the right to produce such weapons: China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam.

The ICBL report came ahead of a five-day meeting in Geneva next week of signatory countries to the Ottawa Treaty.

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'The Gates Of Hell' Are Opening Around Damascus As Rebels Close In On Assad

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syriaFor days Syrian warplanes and artillery have been relentlessly bombing rebel-held positions on the outskirts of Damascus as they try to secure that area around the capital, Patrick J. McDonnell of The Los Angeles Times reports.

The Syrian army "has completely opened the gates of hell before all who would even consider approaching Damascus or planning to attack it," the pro-government Al Watan newspaper reported Sunday. 

But rebels reportedly control stretches as close as a mile from the Damascus International Airport — leading to the cancellation of flights into Monday — and have captured a military helicopter airport and the main road leading to the airport.

Damascus Revolutionary Military Council spokesman Abu Eyaad told CNN that the opposition's main goal "is to sap the strength of the regime's air force and supplies."

The UN is now sending "all non-essential” international staff out of Syria, and BBC foreign editor Jon Williams notes that it is a "huge call. Halting aid missions outside Damascus as situation deteriorates."

Rebels have vowed that they will not stop until they topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, and several recent developments indicate that the rebels have significant momentum in the 20-month conflict.

Rebels now have a stockpile of weapons

The opposition recently capturedtanks, armored vehicles and truckloads of munitions from a government base in the noth and now have at least 40 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile systems from government stockpiles and are shooting down attack Assad's warplanes, which means they've achieved the potential to neutralize one of the critical aspects of the regime’s defense.

The rebels continue to receive U.S.-made weapons through Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The Syrian regime has its own stockpile of chemical weapons, which have recently been moved in a way that suggest Assad is preparing to use them.

Rebels control, consolidate and constrict supply routes all over the country

Assad lost control of the northeast part of the country in the summer and recently lost critical ground along supply routes in the northern Aleppo Province as well as around Damascus. The road connecting Aleppo and Damascus is already under rebel control.

In the last month rebels have captured key oil fields in the east of the country, and the huge rebel-controlled territory along the Iraqi border is now the largest outside government control.

A lot of Syrian troops and officials have defected

Today Reuters reports that Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi has defected. The defection is one in a long line of high visibility departures from the upper echelons of Assad's military and government apparatus.

Thousands of regular Syrian Army soldiers defected to fight on the side of the rebels, and to make matters worse for Assad, the officer corps has also taken a serious beating. In total, 44 generals and several more lower ranking officers have fled the country for Turkey.

Assuming the Syrian Army is comparable to most modern militaries in terms of officer to troop ratios, that would put anywhere from one third to half of Assad's General Officer Corps out of commission. Historically speaking, the flight of generals is one of the surer signs of impending collapse — a stark and not so subtle reminder that not even those at the top are confident of an unfavorable outcome.

International support for the opposition has never been higher

The "Friends of Syria"– which includes the U.S., the European Union and Arab League – recently met in Tokyo to coordinate further sanctions on Assad's regime.

Turkey has asked NATO to establish Patriot missiles on its border to bolster air defenses, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she expects the request to be granted. 

Iran, China and Russia – the last of which has reportedly continued sending attack helicopters and weapons to Syrian forces – are still in Assad's corner.

Nevertheless, the regime will make its toughest stand yet to hold Damascus.

Experts told The New York Times that the government's defense of the capital could be the fiercest and most destructive phase yet of the 20-month conflict. Assad's best and most loyal troops (along with much of his artillery) remain at the center of the city. They'll clash with better-organized units of army defectors in southern Syria, and with Jordan's force that's been training to attack Damascus.

Emile Hokayem, an analyst based in Bahrain for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Times that everyone is simply "waiting for the big battle to begin.

SEE ALSO: How The Syrian Conflict Is Going To End

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US Official Believes Syria Has Begun Preparing Deadly Nerve Gas

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Chemical Weapons

Reports suggest that the regime of Bashar Al-Assad has begun mixing the two chemicals needed to weaponize sarin gas.

An unnamed U.S. official told Noah Shachtman and Spencer Ackerman of Wired that some of Syria's chemical weapons have now been prepared for use should Assad order it.

Physically, they’ve gotten to the point where they can load it up on a plane and drop it,” the official told Wired.

Sarin gas is one of the most dangerous and toxic chemicals known to man as it is about 500 times more deadly than cyanideThe nerve agent is a colorless and odorless gas that can spread quickly through the air.

The Assad government has more than 500 metric tons of the precursors – rubbing alcohol, and methylphosphonyl difluoride – and usually stores them separately to prevent accidentally triggering the deadly reaction.

"We don't know if there is actual intent [to use them on the Syrian people]," a U.S. official told Barbara Starr of CNN Sunday. "This is worrisome. This is a step beyond moving them around."

An anonymous U.S. official now tells Starr that American intelligence revealed preparation of sarin gas. It is unclear whether it's the same source that spoke with Wired.

On Monday the Syrian Foreign Ministry stated Syria would “not use these types of weapons, if they were available, under any circumstances against its own people." Reuters then reported that Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi has defected.

Also on Monday Hillary Clinton said the use of chemical weapons by Assad would be "a red line for the United States," adding that the U.S. would act quickly if the threat appears imminent.

Reuters reports that President Barack Obama has warned Assad that 'there will be consequences' if he decides to deploy chemical weapons.

The reports come as rebels begin to close in on the capital of Damascus. 

SEE ALSO: 'The Gates Of Hell' Are Opening Around Damascus As Rebels Close In On Assad >

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Russian Diplomats: Bashar Al-Assad Has Lost All Hope Of Victory Or Escape

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Russian diplomats who recently met with Bashar al-Assad about two weeks ago say the Syrian president has lost all hope of victory or escape, a Russian political analyst tells Anne Barnard and Ellen Barry of The New York Times

Government forces have launched a counteroffensive to stem rebel gains around the capital as the opposition lays siege to the Damascus International Airport and closes in on Assad.

But even though Assad's best soldiers and firepower are defending the capital, it seems that both internal and outside support for the regime is eroding.

Yesterday Reuters reported that the Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman defected. Meanwhile a senior Turkish official told The Times that Russia is open to trying to persuade Assad to relinquish power, which would be a significant shift given that Moscow has provided Assad with money, weapons and military advisors throughout the 21-month uprising.

More from The Times:

[Assad's] mood is that he will be killed anyway,” Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of a Russian foreign affairs journal and the head of an influential policy group, said in an interview in Moscow, adding that only an “extremely bold” diplomatic proposal could possibly convince Mr. Assad that he could leave power and survive.

If he will try to go, to leave, to exit, he will be killed by his own people,” Mr. Lukyanov said, speculating that security forces dominated by Mr. Assad’s minority Alawite sect would not let him depart and leave them to face revenge. “If he stays, he will be killed by his opponents. He is in a trap. It is not about Russia or anybody else. It is about his physical survival.”

Assad's alleged despair comes amid reports that he is preparing some of the chemical weapons at his disposal and that NATO will place Patriot anti-aircraft missiles on the Turkish border.

SEE ALSO: How The Syrian Conflict Is Going To End

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Bashar Al-Assad Bombs Own Capital As Rebels Close In On His Position

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Syria L-39 Albatros

Warplanes on Wednesday pounded suburbs of Damascus as regime forces fought to reclaim rebel-held areas of the capital, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The Britain-based watchdog, which uses a countrywide network of activists and doctors to compile its tolls, said at least 123 people were killed on Tuesday, including some 30 in and around Damascus.

Damascus has now become the focus of clashes. President Bashar al-Assad's forces on Tuesday blasted a string of rebel zones on the eastern and southwestern outskirts of the city.

"The air force is bombarding Mleha and Zabdine" in southeast Damascus, the Observatory said, adding that Daraya to the southwest was under artillery fire, amid clashes at Saqba to the east.

Battles east of Damascus have grown especially bloody as troops try to push back rebels in the Eastern Ghouta region who have inched closer towards the capital.

Warplanes on Wednesday overflew the area, through which passes the road to Damascus international airport.

The watchdog also reported security force swooped on several areas in the city centre.

More than 41,000 people have been killed as the Syrian conflict approaches the 21-month mark, according to the Observatory.

Al-Watan, a daily close to the government, said on Wednesday the army "continues to hunt armed groups along the road to the international airport, killing or wounding dozens of terrorists" -- the regime's term for rebels.

In the northwest, seven soldiers were killed in "a rebel attack on a checkpoint south of Maaret al-Numan on the Aleppo-Damascus road," the Observatory said.

There was also fighting around the Wadi Deif military base, which has been under siege since rebels took Maaret al-Numan in October, it reported.

The clashes come a day after NATO approved member state Turkey's request for Patriot missiles to defend its border following a series of warnings to Damascus not to use chemical weapons.

On Monday, US President Barack Obama warned Assad against using chemical weapons, saying there would be "consequences" for such an action.

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Bashar Al-Asad Is Likely To Stick Around A Bit Longer Than Commonly Expected

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syria army tanksThe United States Senate has issued an order to the Pentagon to come up with a "military options" for the Syrian Civil War.

The options must come within 90 days of the enactment of the National Defense Authorization Act, reports the website Foreign Policy, and must not include boots on the ground. Also the order does not "explicitly call" for Assad's ouster and does not authorize the military to use force.

Just options — which indicates that American planners and analysts in Washington do not yet see the light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the end of the Assad regime. 

Assad may be surrounded and cut off from supply lines, he may be on the ropes, per se, but analysts agree that the rebels do not quite have the gusto to deliver a knock out punch — and that's due in large part to the fractious nature of their efforts.

A Washington Post report cites Joseph Holliday, a former U.S. Army officer and senior researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, who says "a decisive victory could be several months, if not years, away."

“What we’re seeing is a contraction from the regime,” Holliday told WaPo. “The rebels have been successful in forcing the regime to give up on outlying outposts. What we haven’t seen is any organization above the provincial level, and that is concerning."

Without organization, whatever supplies rebels do get from the outside are poorly distributed. In fact, in terms of conducting 'area denial' on Assad's forces, rebels have relied for the most part on self-made weapons.

Matthew VanDyke, an expert on the Middle East and outspoken rebel supporter, takes Holliday's analysis a bit further in a recent post on Syria Deeply:

There is little command structure and generally poor leadership. Orders made at the highest levels of command aren’t always carried out by the time they reach the men on the front lines. Assad’s forces are far larger and far better equipped than the FSA. It is going to take innovation and some really unconventional thinking to win this, unless there is outside intervention or support, said VanDyke.

Though the conventional wisdom seems to be that Assad will surely fall, the questions now seem to be in how long and at what cost.

"That is exactly the core question at issue for us going forward. Should the United States stand on the sidelines as Bashar al-Assad massacres tens of thousands more of his civilians? Or should we consider what ways we can be involved?" Said Senator Chris Coons(D-DE) during a floor speech.

The Pentagon order stipulates three courses of action — "deploying Patriot missiles to neighboring countries, establishing no-fly zones over Syrian population centers, and conducting limited airstrikes aimed at Assad's air power assets."

Those, like Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who oppose the order make a good point, as many reputable analysts have concluded about the Syrian situation: When Bashar al-Assad falls, what takes his place?

As Jihadi militias muscle their way into the forefront, a secondary consideration has become how to massage the incoming power structure into the path of moderate democracy, rather than religious extremism.

NOW SEE: Here's The Ways Assad's Regime Will Come To An End >

 

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