JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel's defense chief said Tuesday a Russian plan to supply sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles to Syria was a "threat" and signaled that Israel is prepared to use force to stop the delivery.

The warning by Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon ratcheted up tensions with Moscow over the planned sale of S-300 air-defense missiles to Syria. Earlier in the day, a top Russian official said his government remained committed to the deal.

Israel has been lobbying Moscow to halt the sale, fearing the missiles would upset the balance of power in the region and could slip into the hands of hostile groups, including the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, a close ally of the Syrian regime.

Israel has carried out several airstrikes in Syria in recent months that are believed to have destroyed weapons shipments bound for Hezbollah. Israel has not confirmed carrying out the attacks.

The delivery of the Russian missiles to Syria could limit the Israeli air force's ability to act. It is not clear whether Israeli warplanes entered Syrian airspace in these attacks.

Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Russia to discuss the Syrian situation with President Vladimir Putin. The sides have said little about the talks, but the S-300s were believed to have been on the agenda.

"Clearly this move is a threat to us," Yaalon told reporters Tuesday when asked about the planned Russian sale.

"At this stage I can't say there is an escalation. The shipments have not been sent on their way yet. And I hope that they will not be sent," he said. But "if God forbid they do reach Syria, we will know what to do."

Since the Syrian conflict erupted in March 2011, Israel repeatedly has voiced concerns that Syria's sophisticated arsenal, including chemical weapons, could either be transferred to Hezbollah, a bitter enemy of Israel, or fall into the hands of rebels battling Syrian President Bashar Assad. The rebels include al-Qaida-affiliated groups that Israel believes could turn their attention toward Israel if they topple Assad.

Syria already possesses Russian-made air defenses, and Israel is believed to have used long-distance bombs fired from Israeli or Lebanese airspace. The S-300s would expand Syria's capabilities, allowing it to counter airstrikes launched from foreign airspace as well.

In Moscow, Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, wouldn't say whether Russia has shipped any of the S-300s, which have a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) and the capability to track and strike multiple targets simultaneously. But he insisted that Moscow isn't going to abandon the deal despite strong Western and Israeli criticism.

"We understand the concerns and signals sent to us from different capitals. We realize that many of our partners are concerned about the issue," Ryabkov said. "We have no reason to revise our stance."

He said the missiles could be a deterrent against foreign intervention in Syria and would not be used against Syrian rebels, who do not have an air force.

"We believe that such steps to a large extent help restrain some 'hotheads' considering a scenario to give an international dimension to this conflict," he said.

Russia has been the key ally of the Syrian regime, protecting it from United Nations sanctions and providing it with weapons despite the civil war there that has claimed over 70,000 lives.

In any case, an open confrontation between Israel and Russia would seem to be months away. Russian military analysts say it would take at least one year for Syrian crews to learn how to operate the S-300s, and the training will involve a live drill with real ammunition at a Russian shooting range. There has been no evidence that any such training has begun.

If Russia were to deliver the missiles to Syria, Israeli and Western intelligence would likely detect the shipment, and Israel would have ample time to strike before the system is deployed.

Ryabkov's statement came a day after European Union's decision to lift an arms embargo against Syrian rebels. He criticized the EU decision, saying it would help fuel the conflict.

Israel's defense chief spoke at an annual civil defense drill to prepare for missile attacks on Israel. This year's exercise comes at a time of heightened concerns that Israel could be dragged into the Syrian civil war.

A number of mortar shells from the fighting in Syria have landed in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. While Israel believes most of the fire has been errant, it has accused Syria of firing intentionally at Israeli targets on several occasions, and last week the sides briefly exchanged fire.

Israel's civil defense chief, Home Front Minister Gilad Erdan, said this week's drill was not specifically connected to the tensions with Syria.

"But of course we must take into consideration that something like that might happen in the near future because of what we see in Syria, and because we know that chemical weapons exist in Syria and might fall to the hands of radical Muslim terror groups," he said.

___

Associated Press writer Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed to this report.

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The White House is considering a no-fly-zone in Syria.

Russia plans to send the S-300 missile system to Syria, which could down aircraft attempting to enforce a no-fly zone.

Someone has to blink — or things could get really bad.

The conflict in Syria has raged for two years. What began as peaceful demonstrations has deteriorated into full-blown civil war, with more than 80,000 people killed and millions displaced by the conflict.

White House spokesman Jay Carney confirmed chatter about a no-fly-zone with a statement on Wednesday: "Every option available to the president remains on the table when it comes to our policy towards Syria. That of course includes the possibility of a no-fly zone."

Sen. John McCain, an advocate of a no-fly zone in Syria, secretly traveled to Syria and met with members of the Free Syrian Army for several hours on Monday. He is the highest ranking U.S. official to visit the war-torn nation since the fighting began.

Meanwhile Russia has said it will supply the Bashar al Assad regime with S-300 missile systems.

The technology would be a major upgrade in the Syrian government’s air defense system. Gen. Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told reporters in April that Syrian air defenses are already far more advanced than what U.S. and NATO forces faced in Libya in 2011.

Military analysts say that U.S. could disable those air defenses with a cyberattack, though it's not clear how effective such an attack would be against the newer Russian missiles.

Senior Israeli intelligence officials flew to Moscow late Tuesday night in a last ditch effort to get the Russian Foreign Ministry to change its mind about backing up Assad.

The weapons would represent a serious threat to Israeli national security, as they have conducted air strikes in the Syria.

The Israeli Defense Minister, Moshe Ya'alon, suggested yesterday that force was an option in preventing Syria from possessing the missile system.

"The shipments haven't set out yet and I hope they won't. If they do arrive in Syria, God forbid, we'll know what to do," he said.

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BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syria has received the first shipment of an air defense system from Russia, President Bashar al-Assad was quoted as saying, sending a signal of military strength days before an EU arms embargo on the war-torn country lapses.

"Syria has received the first shipment of Russian anti-aircraft S-300 rockets," Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar newspaper quoted Assad as saying in an interview due to be broadcast later on Thursday.

More of the missiles would arrive soon, he was quoted as saying.

Russia has said it would deliver the missile system to the Syrian government over Western objections, saying the move would help stabilize the regional balance.

A staunch ally of the Assad government, Moscow has appeared to grow more defiant since the European Union let its arms embargo on Syria expire, opening up the possibility of the West arming the rebels battling to topple the president. The embargo lapses on June 1.

The United States, France and Israel have all called on Russia to stop the missile delivery.

An interview with Assad will be released on Thursday on Al Manar, a television station linked to Assad's ally, the Shi'ite Muslim militant group Hezbollah.

More than 80,000 people have died in Syria since peaceful protests against four decades of Assad family rule led to a civil war that has pitted the president's forces and his ally, Hezbollah, against Syrian rebels and a flow of Sunni Islamist militants who have come to help them from abroad.

Moscow says the lapsing of the EU embargo complicates U.S. and Russian-led efforts to set up a peace conference between the Syrian government and its opponents, who want an immediate end to four decades of Assad family rule.

The Syrian leader said he planned to go to the "Geneva 2" conference, al-Akhbar reported, though he was unconvinced of a fruitful outcome and said he would continue to fight the militants.

THREATS AGAINST ISRAEL

Officials in Israel, the United States' main ally in the region, say the S-300 could reach deep into the Jewish state and threaten flights over its main commercial airport near Tel Aviv.

Al-Akhbar said Assad also stressed ties between his forces and Hezbollah militants now openly fighting on the Syrian side of the Lebanese-Syrian frontier.

"Syria and Hezbollah are part of the same axis," al-Akhbar quoted him as telling al-Manar.

"The Syrian army is the one fighting and leading the battles against the armed group, and this fight will continue until all those who are called terrorists are eliminated."

Syria sits along the faultlines of several regional and ethnic conflicts, and violence in the country is increasingly seeping across its borders.

Israel, wary of any Syrian weapons being sent to Hezbollah in Lebanon, has already launched three air strikes against Damascus to stop suspected transfers.

A recent string of strikes in the capital Damascus, which shook the entire city, stoked an angry reaction from Syria. State media outlets said Syria would respond to any further attacks, and would also allow militant groups to attack Israel from a shared border on the Golan Heights.

Israel captured much of Syria's Golan Heights in a 1967 regional war and occupies the territory today, but Assad and his father, the deceased president Hafez al-Assad, had kept the border quiet for decades.

"The Syrian government will not stand in the way of any Syrian groups that want to wage a war of resistance to liberate the Golan," Assad was quoted as saying in the upcoming interview.

Hezbollah has stated it would be willing to support groups that chose to launch operations from the Golan.

Israel has become particularly wary of the S-300 shipments. Its defense minister Moshe Yaalon said on Tuesday, however, that the shipments were not yet on their way.

Sources close to the Russian weapons export monopoly Rosoboronexport said last year that an earlier agreed S-300 deal had been frozen due to concerns over violence in Syria. But one of the sources said Syria had already paid 20 percent of the contract price.

Earlier this month, Israel was reported to have told Washington that Syria had begun payments for a $900 million purchase of S-300s, with an initial deliver due within three months.

(Editing by John Stonestreet)

SEE ALSO: The Global Showdown Over Syria Has Reached A Pivotal Point

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About 5,000 women are fighting for the Syrian rebels, some of them with their children at their side. "My dream is to use a 23 mm and shoot down war planes," says one.

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Syrian State TV released the name, passport and images of a woman they claim was killed fighting alongside Al Qaeda in Syria, reports CNN.

The woman was one of three westerners, one of whom was from the U.K. Syrian news did not identify the third westerner.

CNN reports that forces loyal to President Bashar Al-Assad found maps, weapons, and the Al Nusra Front flag on the dead westerners.

From CNN:

The United States is aware of the claim that an American was killed and is working through the Czech Republic mission in Syria to obtain more information, a State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told CNN.

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The S300 anti-aircraft missiles that Russia has reportedly started sending to Syria don't just pose a threat to Israeli or American pilots; they also pose a threat to Russians on the ground.

If Israel or the U.S. bomb the S300 weapons in Syria, there's a good chance they "will kill a lot of Russians," Robert Hewson, editor of IHS Jane's Air-Launched Weapons, said to the Guardian.

Hewson's conclusion comes from the fact that these weapons systems are far more advanced than what Syria already has. Russian operators would need to be on the ground to oversee the weapons.

This is not the first time the same sentiment has been expressed about bombing runs in Syria putting Russia and the West in direct armed conflict. The Guardian reported on Russian military advisors manning Syrian air defenses late last year.

Russia's decision to arm embattled president Bashar Al-Assad is another step toward a more overt proxy war with the West. At stake is the prospect of regime change in Syria, which America supports and Russia doesn't.

It was previously reported that U.S. and Israel could disable Syrian air defense using cyber and electronic warfare, according to military analysts.

Russia's decision to send S300's could easily be seen as directly countering these statements.

"If your plan is to waltz into Syrian airspace and start bombing things this is a big wrinkle," said Hewson.

It's unclear whether the U.S. or Israel has the ability to disable these systems prior to launching any bombing sorties, though Israel has previously boasted that they could dismantle the S300 system.

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The U.S., U.K., and France are all considering varying degrees of intervention in the Syria conflict, one of which is a so-called "no-fly zone."

However, in a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, former Secretary of State Colin Powell perfectly outlined why such an intervention could turn into a quagmire the U.S. cannot afford.

From Bloomberg:

“We have to be very, very careful with some of the, ‘Well, let’s just go in and start bombing, let’s just go in and put in a no-fly zone.' I wouldn’t like a no-fly zone. If you want to take out the Syrian air force, take it out. Don’t just fly around in circles waiting for it to come up. That won’t be hard to do. But you have to understand, if that doesn’t work, are you then committed to take the next steps?”

“I have no use for President Assad. I’ve negotiated with him. He’s a pathological liar. You can’t trust anything he says,” Powell added. “But at the same time, I’m not sure what replaces him. And the conflict will not be over just because he suddenly walks away. I think a new conflict will emerge and we’ll have to determine what role we’ll play in resolving that one.”

What Powell is saying here is that if that initial punch of setting up a no-fly zone doesn't knock Assad out of office, the U.S. is effectively caught in the breach — forcing the administration to possibly take more drastic action.

A risky move for sure, especially with an American public who is deeply opposed to the idea of even any amount of intervention in Syria.

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Russian personnel have been on the ground in Syria for months.

If Russia carries through with its weapons deals — S300 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) — there will be more Russian personnel on the ground to man those missile systems.

Moscow denies they have military in Syria and Israel is hinting that they'll strike any S300 system moving around Syria.

That Israel can destroy the missiles is of little consequence as Russia can just build more. It's the potential for Russian casualties caused by Israel air strikes that could expand the conflict. There's no replacement for lost life.

Russia's intentions with sending the hardware of S300 missile systems is only part of their strategy to stifle the U.S. precedent of regime change. Having Russians man the systems with personnel on the ground is a deterrent to Israeli air strikes. Loss of life is more politically significant than destroyed hardware, and Putin is aware of this. 

Israel, the U.K., U.S., and France are much less likely to bomb systems manned by Russians. Especially considering Russia is a country that holds a permanent seat in the U.N. Security Council. 

Russia could be taking a page from 1962 Cuban missile crisis playbook, when the U.S. Air Force came up with a plan to run 100 bombing sorties to destroy Russian missile emplacements.

There were two problems to the Air Force plan back in 1962. One was the political implications of a U.S. strike on a smaller country. George Ball, then-undersecretary of state, said that a surprise attack of that magnitude would look like a "Pearl Harbor" in reverse.

The second problem was that  a slew of Russian citizens would have been killed in the strikes — which meant the move would have essentially put American and Russian forces in direct "hot war" contact. 

Then-Secretary of Defense Robert McNammara said of the proposed bombing runs, "I don't know quite what kind of a world we live in after we've struck Cuba, and we've started it ... How do we stop at that point?"

Kennedy knew this. He'd already lost a U2 pilot to Russian SAMs and he didn't want to risk more gunfire.

Instead of more shots fired, Kennedy went the alternate route of blockading Cuba. The blockade put Russia and the U.S. navies "eyeball to eyeball," said then-Secretary of State Dean Rusk.

Russia blinked.

Today, Russia expects Israel and the U.S. to blink if they get the S300 weapon systems into Syria with several Russian operators.

The Obama administration has issued warnings to Putin about putting weapon systems on Syrian soil.

Those warnings could be equally interpreted as  "Hey Vlad, no more Russians on the ground. Alright?"

Because if the U.S. does go forward with a no-fly zone over Syria — essentially attacking Northern Syria and everyone in it — Russia's acceptance of their own dead will only go so far until it potentially could turn into a much more serious standoff with the U.S. and Israel. 

"There is a big danger that if you blow the SA-300 up you will kill a lot of Russians. I don't think the Israelis want to do that," Robert Hewson, editor of IHS Jane's Air-Launched Weapons, said to the Guardian.

SEE ALSO: Assad Thinks He's Winning The Syrian War — And He May Be Right

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The Kremlin has upped the geopolitical ante by pledging to send a heavy aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean, as reported by Russian news agency Interfax.

The carrier — named the "Admiral Kuznetsov"— is quite the beast, and word of its addition to the area of operations is just the latest in jockeying between the U.S. and Russia.

"The cruiser will ... perform a number of missions in an offshore oceanic zone as part of a group," Navy Commander Adm. Viktor Chirkov told Interfax. "Northern Fleet naval pilots will perform a number of missions on board this cruiser in the long-range mission."

The warship holds several sea-based fighters and helicopters, missiles, anti-submarine systems and a crew of 2,000 people.

Despite the implications of the new orders, Chirkov nonchalantly tossed the Admiral Kuznetsov in with the other ships recently deployed to the Mediterranean.

"After all, ships from the Northern, Black Sea, and Baltic Fleets will perform missions as part of this group. So why not," he said.

The heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser is the only one in Russia's fleet, so its deployment is an unmistakable signal of Moscow's seriousness about protecting their regional interests, some of which are directly tied to the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian port of Tartus.

In November Russia sent six warships from its Black Sea Fleet to the Mediterranean in response to the Israel-Gaza conflict. That month the U.S. also began making moves toincrease the American military presence in the east Mediterranean.

In May a detachment from Russia’s Pacific Fleet entered the Mediterranean waters for the first time since the Cold War.

"The Russian Defense Ministry started setting up a special force of warships in the Mediterranean in order to protect Russia's interests in the region," Syria's state-run news agency reported last month, citing a spokesman for Russia defense ministry.

The support Russia has provided to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the 26-month conflict includes guns, grenades,tank parts, fighter jets, advanced antiship cruise missiles, long-range air defense missiles, military officers as advisors,diplomatic cover, and lots of cash.

Topping it off, all of these ships are guarding Assad's ancestral homeland and only route out of the country.

No wonder Syria's ruler shows no sign of backing down.

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The tiny, honey-coloured Al-Shuwaibiya Mosque is the oldest in Aleppo and one of the few that remains undamaged. Unlike many, its low minaret is protected by surrounding buildings and still stands; its 12th century inscriptions intact.

Here his young sons and neighbours said prayers for Khaled Qarabili, who lived in nearby Mutassem Alley. Rebels from a Free Syrian Army checkpoint fired a volley of shots over his body, but he was not a fighter, he was an electrician who died because he climbed on to his roof to fix the wires.

It seemed hard to believe, but Mr Qarabili had stayed in his house with his wife and six children even though it had become enveloped in the fighting, sitting between the front-line checkpoints of the rival regime and Free Syrian armies.

He had nowhere to go, his neighbours said, he was too poor to move his family. He was shot from the regime side, they added.

It is that sort of war in Aleppo, but what is shocking is how this has not scared civilians away. Indeed, the city streets are bustling like never before: shops open, even on sniper alleys, stalls springing up in any available space, scruffy children playing football and scavenging in the absence of school and food.

The population of Aleppo, three million before, has grown since the rebels seized half the city last July and made it a battlefield. Abdulraham Dedam, in charge of relief supplies for the interim council, estimated 3.5 million were crowded on both sides of the line.

It was a bitter winter, and lack of heating in the countryside and reports of death by freezing in refugee camps drove people to the city. In the parks, trees have been cut to stumps, taken for fuel, and rubbish piles up in the streets. Heads poke out of rows of flats in which not a single window is unbroken.

These occupants are fitted into a smaller space. There is no-man's land, and large areas have been destroyed by missiles, such as a sizable void in Ard al-Hamra suburb, on the edges of which six adults and 20 children of two extended families live in the remains of one house.

One family came from next door, their house destroyed by a regime Scud missile, which, according to Human Rights Watch, killed at least 78 people, including 38 children. The neighbours only lost their top floor. "We lost all our possessions," said the guest family's mother, Fadwa Umm Shady. She also lost her one-year-old boy, the youngest of her 11 children.

Her husband, Talib Rajo, was a construction labourer but now has no work, so they collect empty cans for scrap, making $10 a week.

British, other European and US government agencies and aid groups have congregated on the Turkish border to distribute help, but demand Western standards of organisation and transparency, contracts and delivery schedules, amid the chaos of revolution. Aid has gone missing, or been held up by paperwork. Rebel groups argue about control. Scores of rubbish trucks are supposed to have been delivered, but none had been seen by any official asked.

The trucks' main purpose is to cut the incidence of leishmaniasis – sand-fly disease – a disfiguring condition that has swept Aleppo, with an estimated 200,000 cases.

Worse is coming. At one of the main hospitals – moved from its previous site, now just rubble after being repeatedly hit by regime jets – a doctor who gave his name as Rabia said there were hundreds of cases of tuberculosis, the classic symptom of overcrowding.

Medical staff are bracing themselves for the diseases of summer and poor water, cholera and even typhoid.

No one has any guess as to how long this will continue. While the regime is making advances further south, there seems little possibility of a major counter-offensive here.

As for the rebels, they said they had for the time being given up on taking the rest of the city, because every advance was met by air raids on the civilian population.

On either side of the lines or – like Mr Qarabili – between them, are civilians whose numbers are unclear but who do not care who wins as long as it all stops.

"Every day you have people dead, children dead, homes destroyed. All we want is our peace back," Fadwa Umm Shady said. "Even if that means Assad stays, Assad who destroyed all this, my house, so be it."

This is not a popular view in some rural areas, where President Assad has become not so much an object of fear as a remote, almost irrelevant bogeyman. But they need not worry: peace now seems like the other crazy demands of the revolution, an idea whose time has not come.

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The New York Times C.J. Chivers is in Syria and he's stumbled upon an age-old tactic that's having a devastating effect on Syrian rebel forces.

Called "spiked ammunition," it features a concoction of powder inside a bullet that causes the bullet to explode once the rifle firing pin strikes the round.

As Chivers points out, it's maiming Syrians and destroying their weapons. Not only are fighters left unable to pull a trigger, but their hard-sought after weapons are destroyed in the process.

This truly brutal tactic was used by the U.S. during World War II, reports Chivers, as well as by U.S. Blackwater contractors in Iraq.

Watch:

C.J. Chivers is the award winning author of "The Gun." He is a former U.S. Marine infantry officer and military small-arms expert.

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Thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah militants are amassing around the northern Syrian city of Aleppo in preparation for an assault on the city, Loveday Morris of The Washington Post reports.

The deployment demonstrates the group's complete commitment to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and may profoundly affect the 26-month conflict.

“The Aleppo battle has started on a very small scale; we’ve only just entered the game,” a senior Hezbollah commander told The Post. “We are going to go after strongholds where they think they are safe. They are going to fall like dominoes.”

The commander had been overseeing five units in Qusair, a town near the Syria-Lebanon on border where Hezbollah has been spearheading a regime offensive to retake the town for the last three weeks.

The increased presence of the militant group, in addition to the arrival of sophisticated military technology such as Iranian surveillance drones and Russian anti-mortar systems, has helped solidify recent gains made by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Hezbollah's preparations to attack Aleppo, which is nowhere near the Lebanon-Syria border, significantly raises the stakes in the war.

“A deployment so deep into Syria and in such a crucial place would be a clear indication that Hezbollah’s role in Syria was never limited to defensive aims but is geared toward helping Assad score major victories,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East-based analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Post.

Aleppois Syria's largest city and served as the country's commercial hub before the war.

David Barrett of The Telegraph reports that the metropolitan population, about three million before the war, has grown to about 3.5 million since the opposition seized half the city last July.

Rebels, primarily al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, have been administering city services in areas under their control while a stalemate persists.

The guerrilla fighters of Hezbollah are training and advising the growing irregular militias being deployed by Assad.

At least 50,000 militiamen — known as Jaysh al-Sha‘bia i.e. "People's Army"— are now fighting for Assad, and Iran aims to increase the force to 100,000 by sending fighters to a secret base in Iranfor guerrilla combat training.

Last week Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, wrote that "Hezbollah's all-in commitment is perhaps the single most important development of the war thus far and will profoundly affect its course."

Israel, which has bombed Syria three times this year amid suspicions of weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is surely watching the developments closely.

One unintended consequence of the Shia group's assertiveness inside Syria is an unprecedented galvanization of the fractured opposition.

Hezbollah's involvement in Syria is like a needle. When injected, it hurts but stimulates. Syrian rebels never worked together as are now.

— Hassan Hassan حسن (@hhassan140) June 3, 2013

To rebels, whatever unity have achieved in Qusayr so far , is remarkable , for a spontaneous insurgency.All we pray is keep it like this

— Shami Witness (@ElSaltador) June 2, 2013

Another immediate implication is increased sectarian tensions in Lebanon, where Hezbollah is one of two major political parties.

“The presence of Hezbollah units around Aleppo will only deepen the divide in Lebanon and confirm, in the eyes of its rivals, Hezbollah’s complete alignment with Assad,” Hokayem told the Post, adding that it's now plausible that Hezbollah is and will be utilized anywhere in the country.

Right on cue, on Sunday night a security source told al-Arabiya that one person was killed and 21 wounded in Lebanon’s second city of Tripoli when pro- and anti-Assad Alawite and Sunni residents clashed.

SEE ALSO: Assad Thinks He's Winning The Syrian War — And He May Be Right

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One key thing has been lost amidst reports of foreign fighters and al-Qaeda-affiliated rebels fighting in the Syrian civil war: the revolution began with an Arab Spring "Day of Rage" on March 15, 2011, when a group of 200 mostly young protesters gathered in the Syrian capital of Damascus to demand democratic reforms and the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.

American Matthew Van Dyke, a "freedom fighter" who gives a new definition to the term"combat journalist," has not forgotten that fact.

The 34-year-old documentary filmmaker, who arrived in Aleppo in October after helping Libyan rebels topple ruler Muammar Qaddafi, has produced a mini-documentary titled "Not Anymore: A Story Of Revolution."

The 14-minute short — which will be screened at film festivals this summer — details Syria's struggle for freedom as experienced by a 32-year-old rebel fighter and a 24-year-old female journalist in Aleppo, Syria's biggest city.

We can tell it's a powerful work just from the trailer:

SEE ALSO: US Citizen Fighting For Syrian Rebels Has Been Branded A 'Terrorist' By Assad Regime

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We've reported on how foreign fighters are vital to the Syrian opposition, but until now there hasn't been a definitive report on how many have fought and died during the revolution-turned-sectarian conflict in Syria.

A new study, compiled by Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in collaboration with Evan Kohlmann and Laith al-Khouri of Flashpoint-Intel, found fighters from at least 25 countries have joined the "Convoy of Martyrs to the Levant."

(Notice the number of fighters from Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia — three places that mounted successful revolutions prior to Syria becoming mired in sectarian war.)

The overall breadth of foreign Sunni rebels is astonishing — it doesn't even mention reported fighters from Yemen— but that's not the whole story.

The data may make many people believe, as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has claimed, that "foreign-backed terrorists" make up a substantial part of the opposition.

In reality, Zelin et. al. found, "Sunni foreign fighters in Syria comprise only a minority fraction of the overall rebel force — most generously, one could estimate 10%."

Furthermore, while foreign rebel fighters have clearly influence the conflict, the report notes that there may actually be "more foreign nationals fighting on the side of the Assad regime than with the rebels." 

Given the heavy presence of Shias from Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Lebanon's Hezbollah (not to mention Russian advisors), that conclusion is not implausible.

Nevertheless, the pace of the mujahideen mobilization is impressive: "what took six years to build in Iraq at the height of the U.S. occupation may have accumulated inside Syria in less than half that time."

And the report notes that "the lion’s share of foreign fighters who are dying in Syria are fighting with the most hardline organization involved in the uprising: Jabhat al-Nusra," which has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda's central command in Pakistan.

SEE ALSO: REPORT: US Told Syrian Rebels To Kill Islamic Radicals Before Fighting Assad

If you missed it: How US Ambassador Chris Stevens May Have Been Linked To Jihadist Rebels In Syria

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BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian forces and their Hezbollah militant allies seized control on Wednesday of the border town of Qusair, dealing a strategic defeat to rebel fighters battling for two years to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.

Rebels said they had pulled out of Qusair, which lies on a cross-border supply route with neighboring Lebanon, after two weeks of fierce battles which marked Lebanese Hezbollah's deepest military involvement yet in Syria's civil war.

One Hezbollah fighter told Reuters that they took the town in a rapid overnight offensive, allowing some fighters to flee. "We did a sudden surprise attack in the early hours and entered the town. They escaped," he said.

Qusair had been in rebel hands for over a year and television images from the town on Wednesday showed widespread destruction, with buildings reduced to rubble, the streets torn up and no residents in sight.

Assad's forces fought hard to seize it to reassert control of a corridor through the central province of Homs which links Damascus to the coastal heartland of Assad's minority Alawites, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.

"Whoever controls Qusair controls the center of the country, and whoever controls the center of the country controls all of Syria," said Brigadier General Yahya Suleiman, speaking to Beirut-based Mayadeen television.

Hezbollah's Al-Manar television showed a man climbing the bullet-pocked clocktower in the town's central square to plant a Syrian flag, while tanks and troops moved through the streets.

"Our heroic armed forces have returned security and stability to all of the town of Qusair," a statement carried by Syrian state television said.

It marked the latest military gain for Assad, who has launched a series of counter-offensives against mainly Sunni Muslim rebels battling to overthrow him and end his minority Alawite family's four-decade grip on power.

More than 80,000 people have been killed in the fighting and another 1.6 million Syrians refugees have fled a conflict which has fueled sectarian tensions across the Middle East, spilled over into neighbouring Lebanon and divided world powers.

In the Hezbollah stronghold of southern Beirut, residents fired celebratory fireworks as news of Qusair's capture spread.

The capture of Qusair strengthens Assad's hand ahead of planned peace talks which U.S. and Russian officials were due to discuss in Geneva on Wednesday, with the United Nations and Arab League envoy for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi.

REBELS SAY FLEE AFTER ROCKET BARRAGE

The outgunned rebels said they had pulled out of Qusair "in face of this huge arsenal and of lack supplies and the blatant intervention of Hezbollah".

"Dozens of fighters stayed behind and ensured the withdrawal of their comrades along with the civilians," the rebels said in a statement.

Assad's forces had opened an escape route into Debaa and the Lebanese border town of Arsal to encourage fighters to leave Qusair, once home to some 30,000 people, a security source with ties to Syrian forces said.

The army had control of most of the town but was still sweeping the northern quarter where rebels had been dug in.

A rebel commander in contact with the brigades that pulled out said the decision to withdraw was taken after a day of rocket fire from the Syrian army and Hezbollah that "leveled what had remained" of Qusair. "An exit remained open from the north and the fighters took a decision to leave from there."

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an anti-Assad group which monitors the violence in Syria, said it was concerned for the fate of 1,200 wounded people in Qusair and called for immediate access to be granted to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

A fighter from the pro-Assad National Defense Force said that after the fall of Qusair the military focus may move to the northern province of Aleppo, which has been largely in rebel hands for the last year.

(Writing by Dominic Evans and Erika Solomon, Additional reporting by Mariam Karouny in Beirut and Khaled Yacoub Oweis in Amman; Editing by Crispian Balmer)

SEE ALSO: Hezbollah Is Launching An Offensive That Will Profoundly Change The Syrian War

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U.S. intelligence agencies believe three Russian amphibious warships in the eastern Mediterranean are carrying weapons shipments to resupply the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Pentagon official told Barbara Starr of CNN.

The Kremlin recently upped the ante off the coast of Syria by sending sent its only aircraft carrier to join its Pacific Fleet — which entered the Mediterranean waters for the first time since the Cold War in May — and sent six warships from its Black Sea Fleet.

"The Russian Defense Ministry started setting up a special force of warships in the Mediterranean in order to protect Russia's interests in the region," Syria's state-run news agency reported last month, citing a spokesman for Russia defense ministry.

From CNN:

U.S. satellites were able to see some indications of containers being loaded onto the ships. Although it's not confirmed, it's believed the ships may be carrying some components of the controversial Russian S-300 air defense missile system and other weapons for the regime.

In December Michael Weiss, co-chair of the London-based foreign policy think tank Russian Studies Center, told U.S. News & World Report that the presence of the navy ships has three purposes: Russia wants to run weapons and materiel into Syria, take Russian nationals out of the country, and send a signal to the U.S. that it still backs Assad.

During the 26-month Syrian conflict Russia has provided the embattled leader with supplies including guns, grenades, tank parts, fighter jets, advanced antiship cruise missiles, long-range air defense missiles, military officers as advisors, diplomatic cover, and lots of cash.

The U.S. hasn't been sitting idly by, as seen by the decision to place a Patriot missile defense system and personnel in Jordan (meaning there are Patriot missiles on Syria's northern and southern borders) after Russia said it would send S-300 missile batteries to Syria.

In November the U.S. began to increase the American military presence in the east Mediterranean, and Starr notes that "the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower will also be in the region [this month] on a scheduled rotation as it returns to its home port on the East Coast."

Here's a look at the playground:

SEE ALSO: Russia Is Upping The Ante By Sending Its Only Aircraft Carrier To The Mediterranean

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Moved by the Assad regime's rapid advance, the Obama administration could decide this week to approve lethal aid for the beleaguered Syrian rebels and will weigh the merits of a less likely move to send in U.S. airpower to enforce a no-fly zone over the civil war-wracked nation, officials said Sunday.

White House meetings are planned over the coming days, as Syrian President Bashar Assad's government forces is apparently poised for an attack on the key city of Homs, which could cut off Syria's armed opposition from the south of the country. As many as 5,000 Hezbollah fighters are now in Syria, officials believe, helping the regime press on with its campaign after capturing the town of Qusair near the Lebanese border last week.

Opposition leaders have warned Washington that their rebellion could face devastating and irreversible losses without greater support, and the warnings are prompting the United States to consider drastic action.

Secretary of State John Kerry postponed a planned trip Monday to Israel and three other Mideast countries to participate in White House discussions, said officials who weren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity.

While nothing has been concretely decided, U.S. officials said President Barack Obama was leaning closer toward signing off on sending weapons to vetted, moderate rebel units. The U.S. has spoken of possibly arming the opposition in recent months but has been hesitant because it doesn't want to al-Qaida-linked and other extremists fighting alongside the anti-Assad militias to end up with the weapons.

Obama already has ruled out any intervention that would require U.S. military boots on the ground. Other options such as deploying American air power to ground the regime's jets, gunships and other aerial assets are now being more seriously debated, the officials said, while cautioning that a no-fly zone or any other action involving U.S. military deployments in Syria were far less likely right now.

The president also has declared chemical weapons use by the Assad regime a "red line" for more forceful U.S. action. American allies including France and Britain have say they've determined with near certitude that Syrian forces have used low levels of sarin in several attacks, but the administration is still studying the evidence. The U.S. officials said responses that will be mulled over in this week's meetings concern the deteriorating situation on the ground in Syria, independent of final confirmation of possible chemical weapons use.

Any intervention could have wide-reaching ramifications for the United States and the region. It would bring the U.S. closer to a conflict that has killed almost 80,000 people since Assad cracked down on protesters inspired by the Arab Spring in March 2011 and sparked a war that has since been increasingly defined by sectarian clashes between the Sunni-led rebellion and Assad's Alawite-dominated regime.

And it would essentially pit the United States alongside regional allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar in a proxy war against Iran, which is providing much of the materiel to the Syrian government's counterinsurgency and, through Hezbollah, more and more of the manpower.

Syria's precarious position in the heart of the Middle East makes the conflict extremely unpredictable. Lebanon, across the western border, suffered its own brutal civil war in the 1970s and the 1980s and is already experiencing increased interethnic tensions. Iraq, to Syria's east, is mired in worsening violence. And Israel to the southwest has seen shots fired across the contested Golan Heights and has been forced to strike what it claimed were advanced weapons convoys heading to Hezbollah, with whom it went to war with in 2006.

Iran could wreak havoc in the region through its support of Shiite militant groups, and U.S. officials fear Iran may seek to retaliate for any stepped-up American involvement by targeting Israel or U.S. interests in the region. It's also unclear what American action would mean for relations with Russia, which has provided Assad with military and diplomatic support even as it claims that it working with the United States to try to organize a Syrian peace conference.

At the same time, it's unclear how Washington could fundamentally change the trajectory of a conflict that has increasingly tilted toward Assad in recent months without providing weapons to the opposition forces or getting involved itself.

The administration has been studying for months how to rebalance Syria's war so that moderate, pro-democracy rebels defeat the regime or make life so difficult for Assad and his supporters that the government decides it must join a peace process that entails a transition away from the Assad family's four-decade dictatorship.

But Assad's military successes appear to have rendered peace efforts largely meaningless in the short term. While Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have been trying to rally support for the planned conference in Geneva — first envisioned for May and since postponed until July at the earliest — even America's allies in the Syrian opposition leadership have questioned the wisdom of sitting down for talks while they are ceding territory all over the country to Assad's forces.

Beyond weapons support for the rebels, administration officials harbor deep reservations about other options.

They note that a no-fly zone, championed by hawks in Congress such as Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., would require the U.S. to first neutralize Syrian air defense systems that have been reinforced with Russian technology and are far stronger than those that Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi had before the U.S. and its Arab and European allies helped rebels overthrow him in 2011. And unlike with Libya, Washington has no clear international mandate for authorizing any strikes inside Syria, a point the Obama administration officials has harped on since late 2011 to explain its reticence about more forceful action.

Homs has one of the biggest Alawite communities in Syria and is widely seen as pro-Assad. The rebels control the city center, however, with regime forces besieging them on the outskirts.

Many towns north of Homs also are rebel-controlled, while to the south Hezbollah-backed government forces have been clearing rebels from villages and towns. Fierce fighting there over the past three weeks has killed dozens of rebels, troops and Hezbollah fighters and wounded hundreds.

Seizing control of Homs would clear a path for the regime from Damascus to the Mediterranean coast, and firm up its grip on much of the country.

___

AP White House Correspondent Julie Pace contributed to this report.

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The Obama administration is considering resettling some refugees who have escaped war-torn Syria in the United States, a development first reported by the Los Angeles Times on Sunday and later confirmed by the State Department.

According to the Times, the resettlement of the refugees would be “part of an international effort that could bring thousands of Syrians to American cities and towns.”

The Times reports [emphasis added]:

A resettlement plan under discussion in Washington and other capitals is aimed at relieving pressure on Middle Eastern countries straining to support 1.6 million refugees, as well as assisting hard-hit Syrian families.

The State Department is “ready to consider the idea,” an official from the department said, if the administration receives a formal request from the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees, which is the usual procedure.

The United States usually accepts about half the refugees that the U.N. agency proposes for resettlement. California has historically taken the largest share, but Illinois, Florida,Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia are also popular destinations.

UN, government and non-governmental representatives are meeting this week in Geneva to discuss the resettlement options, according to the Times.

State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki was asked for details about the resettlement plan at the department’s Monday briefing.

“Well, let me first say the preferred solution for the vast majority of refugees is to return home once it is safe. We are in close contact with the UN on the need for resettlement of refugees from countries of first asylum throughout the world,” Psaki said.

While she wouldn’t specify the number of Syrian refugees the U.S. would be willing to resettle, she explained that Congress caps the number of refugees at 70,000 in total.

“So the way it would work would be if a specific country is added to the list of refugees where we would accept their refugees, which the U.S. is certainly open to – but let me just reiterate that the preferred solution for the vast majority is to return to their country once it’s safe,” Psaki said.

The UN’s refugee agency UNHCR on Tuesday said it was talking to Germany about resettling up to 10,000 Syrian refugees.

Though the refugee problem is a serious humanitarian issue – with most having fled to neighboring Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey – moving some of them to the U.S. would create challenges. First, how to vet applicants from a country where so many jihadi and al Qaeda activists are present. Secondly, would the lure of possible entry to the U.S. encourage other Syrians to leave their country, further straining their neighbors’ generosity and resources?

As the L.A. Times reports, “Two resettled Iraqis were convicted of trying to send arms to Al Qaeda from their home in Bowling Green, Ky.”

The paper describes political challenges as well:

Congress strongly resisted accepting Iraqi refugees, including interpreters who had worked with U.S. forces, after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Most lawmakers share White House caution about getting more engaged in Syria and may have little appetite for a major influx.

But Susan Rice, President Obama’s new national security advisor, and Samantha Power, Obama’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to the U.N., both have been strong advocates for refugees. They may make the White House more receptive to at least a partial opening.

The L.A. Times points out that the Department of Homeland Security requires “careful vetting of refugees, with multiple interviews and background checks before they are allowed to enter the country.” That process, “under normal circumstances,” can take a year or more.

SEE ALSO: U.S. Marines have more in common with Syrian rebels than you think >

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The U.S. and European allies have concluded that Syria has used chemical weapons against rebels "multiple times," and the White House said it would provide additional assistance to Syrian opposition that "includes military support."

In a conference call Thursday afternoon, White House Deputy National Security Adviser for Communications Ben Rhodes said that the "intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date."

President Barack Obama has said that the use of chemical weapons in Syria's ongoing conflict would be a "game-changer," and that it serves as a "red line." Thursday, Rhodes said it had.

Obama "has said that the use of chemical weapons would change his calculus, and it has," Rhodes said.

For now, though, the White House was unspecific about the next steps it would take, 

"We've prepared for many contingencies in Syria," Rhodes said. "We are going to make decisions on further actions on our own timeline."

Rhodes said that Russia has been notified of the chemical weapons findings but has not yet committed to having Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down. He added that "several allies" and the United Nations have also been briefed.

The Wall Street Journal reported that military planners have proposed a limited no-fly zone that stretches up to 25 miles into Syria, but the White House said it has not yet made a decision. 

There is "no clear guarantee" that it would help, Rhodes said.

Brendan Buck, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner, urged Obama to consult with Congress on further steps. 

"It is long past time to bring the Assad regime’s bloodshed in Syria to an end. As President Obama examines his options, it is our hope he will properly consult with Congress before taking any action," Buck said.

SEE ALSO: ASSAD: Peace Talks Will Fail And America Will 'Deal With' Regime Victory

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For the last two years, the bloody conflict in Syria has careened toward a tipping point.

Ladies and Gentlemen, we may be there.

The timing of this is a little bit crazy:

• A deputy national security advisor has announced that the White House believes the Bashar al-Assad regime used chemical weapons against the rebels in Syria.

• The Pentagon has proposed a plan that would arm and train the rebels, as well as instill a limited no-fly zone over Syria.

• And 4,500 U.S. forces are a stone throw away, in Jordan, conducting a training exercise with Jordanian forces.

President Obama said last year that if Syrian president Bashar al Assad used chemical weapons, it would be a “red line” that would precipitate direct U.S. intervention in the conflict.  

“That would change my calculus,” Obama said. “That would change my equation.”

Presumably the situation in Syria now meets the criteria for U.S. military intervention.

Coincidentally, this comes three days into a 10-day military training exercise in Jordan that has 8,000 American troops, including a detachment of Air Force F-16s and Patriot missile systems within striking distance. The U.S. today committed to leaving the aircraft and Patriot missiles in Jordan after the conclusion of the exercise.

One of the hardest things about any large-scale military operation is moving assets into a strategic position. With Operation Eager Lion underway in Jordan, that seems to be taken care of.

Citing unnamed U.S. military officials, the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Pentagon has developed a plan to bring the Syrian rebels across the border into Jordan, and then keep the Syrian air assets at bay with a limited no-fly zone.

Under this plan, the U.S. would not need a U.N. intervention, which Russia has repeatedly blocked, since they would not enter Syrian airspace.

Depending on how much you believe in coincidences, it certainly seems that the forces in Jordan for Eager Lion would facilitate the execution of the reported plan to arm and train Syrian rebels.

But it’s all speculation at this point.

SEE ALSO: WHITE HOUSE: Chemical Weapons Have Killed 100 To 150 People In Syria

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