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Rebels Have Captured Syria's Largest Dam And Are Pushing Into Damascus

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syriaSyrian rebels captured the country's largest hydroelectric dam as others launched their biggest push into the capital since July, according to Reuters.

In the north opposition forces led by Sunni radicals from Jabhat al-Nusra reportedly captured the Syrian Air Force's intelligence building as well as the country's largest hydroelectric dam.

Barabara Surk of the Associated Press reports that the dam, which is located east of Aleppo, "now controls water and electricity supplies to much of Syria, including government-held areas" large swaths of rebel-held land.

"This is a massive blow for the regime because this dam is strategically important for energy and for agriculture," Mataz Suheil of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told The Guardian. "It would be a massive blow for Syria’s economy and Syria’s future if this area were to be turned into a front for the clashes."

The offensive near the capital has forced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to move tanks from the southwest suburbs to just east of the city center in Jobar, which is located near the base of Assad's core forces and key to holding the eastern districts of the city.

The rebels in the south seem to be benefiting from a recent influx of weapons sent from Jordan to the Free Syrian Army.

Meanwhile Iran and Hezbollah are building militias in Syria to protect supply routes into Lebanon in case rebels topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Karen DeYoung and Joby Warrick of The Washington Post report.

A senior Arab official told the Post that the strategy is twofold: “One is to support Assad to the hilt, the other is to set the stage for major mischief if he collapses."

The primary worry on all sides is that Syria will fragment along religious and tribal lines, leading to a free-for-all once Assad's regime collapses.

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Syria is basically disintegrating as a nation,” Paul Salem, director of the Beirut-based Middle East Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Post. “It’s going to be very hard to put Syria the nation back together ... We’re looking at a place which is sort of a zone, an area called Syria, with different powers.”

At the same time Israel has indicated that it may follow up a strike on Syria earlier this month with further strikes if it suspects that Syria is transporting advanced air defense systems, ballistic missiles, sophisticated shore-to-sea missiles or chemical weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

An Israeli official told The Washington Post that advanced antiaircraft systems in the hands of Hezbollah would threaten Israel’s reconnaissance flights over Lebanon and Israeli airspace when the Iran-backed guerrilla group is already a huge threat.

From The Post:

According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah has amassed about 60,000 rockets and missiles since a 2006 war with Israel ... Hezbollah’s arsenal can reach anywhere in Israel, the officials say.

The events and reports over the weekend indicate a volatile new phase of the war that threatens the entire region as radical rebel groups govern large territories and Israel proactively protects its northern border while Assad continues to leverage his air superiority to remain in power.

SEE ALSO: Israel Faces Increasing Danger As Assad Weakens

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Radical Syrian Rebels Are About To Blur The Border With Iraq

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Following Monday's capture of Syria's largest dam and Tuesday's capture of a key regime airfieldSyrian rebels have surrounded the strategic eastern city of Deir al-Zor, Reuters reports.

Seizing the city would give rebels control of an entire province of Syria for the first time in the 23-month conflict, but it will also add a volatile new element to the war.

The province of Deir al-Zor borders on Iraq, and the rebels sieging the city include radical Sunni fighters from Jabhat al-Nusra— which is led by veterans of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).

Nusra members— the opposition's best frontline fighters — already control wheat silos, a textile factory, and oil fields across Deir al-Zor, and the 10,000-strong force would think little of the border between Syria and Iraq as it attempts to create a seventh-century style Islamic Caliphate.

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From 2004 to 11 AQI fought a brutal guerrilla war against the Iraqi government and the U.S. military with the help of a deep support network of fixers, safe houses, financiers, and radical religious figures in Syria.

By 2009 U.S. intelligence officials became concerned that eastern Syria was becoming a new al-Qaeda haven.

It now appears to be a hotbed as the Syrian civil war has reversed the networks — AQI now contributes money, weapons, expertise, and veteran fighters to al-Nusra.

"The Sunnis in Anbar are helping with weapons and ammunition," the leader of the powerful Al-Qadisiyah Brigade told Reuters. "Their days (of fighting) will come soon and Inshallah (God willing) we will go to jihad with them. Those Sunnis are our brothers."

Given the resurgence of Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) — another AQI offshoot — and the group's recent call on Sunnis to rise up against the Shiite-led Iraqi government, the fall of Deir al-Zor may be an ominous sign of an emerging, transnational sectarian conflict.

SEE ALSO: Rebels Capture Syria's Largest Dam And Push Into Damascus

SEE ALSO: Al-Nusra Is Once Again Undermining The Revolution

SEE ALSO: Al-Nusra Just Showed How They'll Win Or Destroy The Syrian War

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Russia Is Supplying Syria And Mali With Arms

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russia missile iskander

Russia said Wednesday it was delivering military hardware and light weapons to the governments of Syria and Mali as it expands sales and maintains its footing in some of the world's deadliest conflicts.

The head of Russia's arms exporter Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaikin, said Russian deliveries to the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad included air defence systems but not the advanced Iskander missiles sought by Damascus.

"We are continuing to fulfil our obligations on contracts for the delivery of military hardware," Isaikin was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

He also rejected reports that Russia was planning to supply advanced MiG29-M fighters to Damascus while confirming that it had a deal outstanding for Yak-130 trainer jets.

Isaikin said Syria currently ranked "13th or 14th in terms of volume" on the list of nations receiving Russian arms supplies.

Russia has been repeatedly condemned by Western and Arab nations for maintaining links to the Syrian government despite violence that UN estimates show has claimed more than 70,000 lives.

Its shipment this year of repaired attack helicopters to the regime was disclosed by the media and drew a furious response from former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

Isaikin also revealed that Moscow had recent military contacts with the government of Mali as it wages a French-led campaign to expel armed groups of Islamic militants from its land.

He said small amounts of light weapons were already being delivered to Mali and that new sales were under discussion.

"We have delivered firearms. Literally two weeks ago another consignment was sent. These are completely legal deliveries," said Isaikin said.

"We are in talks about sending more, in small quantities."

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Yemen Is Sending Thousands Of Young Men To Fight With Al-Qaeda In Syria

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YemenRecruited by Islamist leaders and financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, more than 5,000 young men have traveled to Turkey over the last four months to fight with al-Qaeda in Syria, Yemeni journalist Nasser Arrabyee reports.

As of October, Turkish Airlines offers four flights per week from the Yemeni cities of Aden and Sanaa to Istanbul, and this week Yemen President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi approved a bilateral agreement canceling entry visas between Yemen and Turkey.

The reports corroborate claims that the Syrian conflict has mutated into a sectarian war with rebels relying on a steady stream of foreign fighters.

The revelations also muddy the picture in Yemen, where the U.S. is operating a covert drone war against suspected terrorists and Iran is sending weapons to armed groups

From Arrabyee:

When asked why, the Yemeni government ignores this issue by saying as long as  they are more than 18 years old and they are not wanted for security, no one can stop them from going wherever they like.

Doug Pologe of Middle East Insights notes that the primary concern with this is that "these guys gain experience which is brought back home, as well as put to use in other locations later on."

SEE ALSO: Radical Syrian Rebels Are About To Blur The Border With Iraq

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Syria Is Heading For The Worst Possible Scenario

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After 23 months the Syrian civil war has become an increasingly volatile stalemate with no end in sight.

"Just as loyalist forces seem unable to regain control of the country, there looks to be little chance the rebels can storm the center of Damascus and attack the seat of Assad's power,"writesSamia Nakhoul of Reuters.

This week rebels have captured the country's largest dam and several strategic army bases in the north while surrounding the last remaining government-held city in the east and even breaching the regime's outer barriers east of Damascus.

But rebels are looting and selling the country's artifacts for money and arms while the the government continues to benefit from the military and financial backing of Russia and Iran.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has consolidated his troops— bolstered by troops from Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah— near fortress-like bases in Damascus and the western provincial capitals while Syrian jets bomb rebel-held areas at will.

"The continuation of violence won't lead to the downfall of the regime,it will lead to the seizure of the country by armed gangs, which will pose a grave danger not only to Syria but to our neighbors,"leading opposition figure Hassan Abdel-Azim told Reuters.

Radical jihadists are gaining control of more food and water as they attempt to establish a seventh-century style Muslim caliphate, meaning that the humanitarian crisis — 70,000 killed, 700,000 refugees, 2 million internally displaced, and 2.5 million people lacking food — will continue and borders will blur.

On the gates to Damascus, Assad's troops have put up signs saying: "Either Assad, or we will set the country ablaze."

At this point it appears Syria will burn anyway.

SEE ALSO: Israel Faces Increasing Danger As Assad Weakens

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Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Shot Dead In Syria

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Iran Revolutionary Guard

Assailants shot dead a senior Iranian official in Syria while he was travel ling by road towards the Lebanese capital overnight, the Iranian authorities said on Thursday.

The Iranian embassy in Beirut said "armed terrorists" killed a man it identified as Hessam Khoshnevis, adding that he had been involved in reconstruction work in Lebanon.

The Revolutionary Guards named the slain man as Hassan Shateri, a commander of the elite Iranian military unit, in an statement on its website that said he was killed while traveling from Damascus to Beirut.

"Commander Hassan Shateri was martyred en route from Damascus to Beirut at the hands of Zionist regime mercenaries and backers," the force's spokesman Ramezan Sherif said in the statement.

Sherif said the man was a Revolutionary Guards commander as well as the head of the Iranian Committee for the Reconstruction of Lebanon.

The embassy named him as "Hassan Shateri known as Hessam Khoshnevis".

It said he was in charge of the Iranian Committee for the Reconstruction of Lebanon set up after the devastating war in 2006 between Israel and Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah militia, which is supported by Iran.

The embassy statement did not elaborate on the circumstances or the exact location of his death.

According to Lebanese newspaper Al-Safir, "Khoshnevis was in Syria, specifically in the (northern city of) Aleppo, to study projects to reconstruct the city".

Iran is the main regional backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, and has admitted Revolutionary Guards members were present in Syria playing a consultative role.

SEE ALSO: Iran Confirms It Has Troops On The Ground In Syria

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American Appears To Be Fighting Alongside The Syrian Rebels

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American fighter in Syria

Two unconfirmed amateur videos posted to YouTube appear to show an American fighting alongside rebel forces in Syria against Bashar al-Assad.

The first, posted by Abu Adam Hourani on Jan. 15, identifies the man as U.S. mujahid — short for the Arabic plural form mujahideen, or "people doing jihad"— wearing what appears to be a military uniform and speaking English in an American accent, taunting the Assad regime.

The group he is with has been identified by BuzzFeed as Jabhet al-Nusra — a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department.

“Bashar Assad, your days are numbered,” he says in the 42 second video. “You are going down in flames. You should just quit now, while you can, and leave. You are going to die, no matter what. Where you go we will find you and kill you. Do you understand?”

The second video, uploaded on Feb. 12 by a different user, is described as follows:

In this footage, an American with a Salafi (or Amish) beard is seen sitting in a Jeep next to an Arab fighter rejoicing for having shot down a Syrian military helicopter.

As rebels appear to be looting the downed helicopter, the camera turns back towards what appears to be the same man, celebrating the attack:

"Yes, we smoked the motherf------, didn't we? Hell yeah. We smoked about, I don't know, ten-twenty," he says with a smile and laugh. 

Although it's difficult to make out all the words, an Arabic translator tells me that the most entertaining piece is when the driver yells "F--- Bashar al-Assad!" The passenger talks over him but the driver can still be heard disparaging al-Assad's mother.

As the Times of Israel reportsit is unclear how many Americans are fighting in the civil war against Assad, but the speaker in the videos would not be the only one fighting alongside Syrian rebels.

Matthew VanDyke, an American and self-proclaimed freedom fighter, participated in the uprising against Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, then fought in Syria before returning to the United States.

SEE ALSO: The Absurdity Of The War On Terror Is Becoming Clear >

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America Has A Sordid Connection To The Chemical Weapons Reported In Syria

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The world drew a sharp breath as reports came out of Homs, Syria, about possible use of BZ (or, similarly, Agent 15), a chemical "incapacitant" that causes deep confusion and hallucinations for upward of three days.

Doctors on the ground gave their diagnosis of the victims, which fell directly in line with the symptoms associated with BZ — and we reported on it.

An immediate outcry sought to discredit the doctors who made the diagnoses, concluding that they were trying to draw the U.S. into the conflict in order to oust Assad. Anyone on the ground at that time though would know that the alternative to Assad is looking worse by the day.

The likeliest scenario is that the doctors were simply making a diagnosis.

Furthermore, use of BZ is unlikely to illicit a military reaction out of the U.S. It's not very deadly, and America knows that because they experimented with it in the 1960s—using U.S. troops as guinea pigs.

The U.S. may also have had played a role in letting the chemical get into the Syria during the Iraq war.

Check it out:

 

Produced by Robert Libetti

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Assad's Seat Of Power Is Not Invincible

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The predominant view on the Syrian war, as told by Reuters journalist Samia Nakhoul, is that "there looks to be little chance the rebels can storm the center of Damascus and attack the seat of Assad's power."

And that makes sense since the regime of Bashar al-Assadhas consolidated its forces in urban areas and can currently bomb rebel-held areas at will.

But the Syrian civil war is heading second year with no end in sight. The rebels appear to have a steady stream of foreign fighters and a new source of weapons— including heavy weapons— and it's no longer unreasonable to think the rebels could eventually reach the heart of the capital.

Syria expert Joshua Landis said as much when he predicted that the Assad regime will survive into 2014 before Assad flees the capital and barricades himself in the coastal mountains of his ancestral Alawite homeland (where he'd be able to survive).

That implies that Damascus will eventually be sacked. This map from Stratfor shows the battles happening right now. The key fight is in Jobar, a contested area that could be a potential path into Damascus proper. Rebel pressure has forced the government to bomb its own capital.

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Of course, Assad is a long way from defeat and may even have the upper hand.

However, the regime's air monopoly will erode as rebels capture airports, acquire surface-to-air missiles to shoot down planes, and form defector-led air squadrons in the hopes that they'll eventually commandeer a functional jet.

And rebels are progressively taking over major oil fields in the east of the country, which is "very important since they supply regime forces with oil needed to operate heavy equipment" such as the tanks that are protecting the capital.

Whether it's in 2013, 2014, or even later, it now seems inevitable that Assad will be forced from his seat of power.

SEE ALSO: Radical Syrian Rebels Are About To Blur The Border With Iraq

SEE ALSO: Non-Radical Syrian Rebels Received A Ton Of Foreign Weapons

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Iranian Commander Killed In Syria Was A Major Enemy Of Israel

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General Hassan ShateriIran vowed revenge against Israel after a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was shot dead in southwestern Syria last week while traveling to Lebanon.

A closer look at General Hassan Shateri (aka Hessam Khosnevis) shows just how important this man was, and why Iran quickly blamed "agents and supporters of the Zionist regime."

Shateri was a senior officer in the IRGC's elite Quds force — the international arm of the Revolutionary Guards — and reportedly"the highest ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer to be killed outside Iran."

Iran's official Press TV described him as leading "the Iranian-financed reconstruction projects in the south of Lebanon"— where Shi’ites form a majority of the population — for the last seven years.

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned "Khosnevis" and others for supporting Hezbollah, describing Khosnevis as a provider of technical support of "the terrorist group's private communications network" and Iranian President Mahmoud "Ahmadinejad's personal representative in Lebanon."

Asharq Al-Awsat, an Arabic newspaper based in London, reports Shateri helped build a communication networks, using fiber optic systems, to provide Iran with "its own telephone, television, and satellite communication facilities across the Lebanon" in addition to controlling banks, hotels, and shopping malls.

Furthermore, Asharq Al-Awsat states that Shateri"controlled several funds amounting to $200 million a year used to replace Hezbollah’s lost arsenal and rebuild its missile sites close to the demarcation line with Israel" after they were decimated in its war with Israel in the summer of 2006.

According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah has amassed more than 60,000 rockets and missilessince the war and can now reach anywhere in Israel.

UPI reported that Shateri and two aides were killed Monday near Zabadani, a border town where Hezbollah has a major base and arms depot, when a Syrian rebel group ambushed his vehicle.

Other members of the Free Syrian Army told UPI that Shateri was killed in Israel's Jan. 30 airstrike on Jamraya, near Zabadani. There were reports that IRGC members were killed in the strike.

Either way the event reflects Iran's involvement in Syria and the regeneration of tensions between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.

SEE ALSO: A Recent Timeline Shows How Israel's Deadly Intelligence Agency May Be Their Best Nuclear Deterrent

SEE ALSO:  Israel Faces Increasing Danger As Assad Weakens

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The Syrian Civil War Has Officially Spread Into Lebanon

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syriaAn October car bombing that killed Lebanon's police chief hinted that the Syrian civil war had spilled over into the neighboring country, but now it appears to be official.

Both state and rebel officials report that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) has shelled two Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and Syria.

(Lebanese radio, citing Lebanese security sources, said no rebel projectiles from Syria had landed on Lebanese territory.)

And on Wednesday the Turkish Anadolu news agency reportedthat 13 members of the Sunni radical rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra"attacked a Hezbollah patrol in the Lebanese southern town of Zeita which led to the death of three of the Shiite group’s members.”

On Tuesday rebels threatened to hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after the Iran-backed group allegedly fired rockets from a town in northern Lebanon in support of Syrian military operations just across the border.

Hezbollah — the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon — has been patrolling border villages and sent fighters in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Last week an elite Iranian commander who helped rebuild southern Lebanon after its 2006 war with Israel was killed while traveling from Damascus to Lebanon.

The increased activity of both Hezbollah and Iran (as well as Israel) inside Syria indicate the increasingly volatile regional implications and sectarian tensions as the 23-month conflict has evolved into a military stalemate.

SEE ALSO: Iranian Commander Killed In Syria Helped Rebuild Lebanon After Its War With Israel

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Israel Grants First Golan Heights Oil Drilling License To Powerful US Company

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Israel has granted a U.S. company the first license to explore for oil and gas in the occupied Golan Heights, John Reed of the Financial Times reports.

A local subsidiary of the New York-listed company Genie Energy — which is advised by former vice president Dick Cheney and whose shareholders include Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch will now have exclusive rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the Golan Heights.

That geographic location will likely prove controversial. Israel seized the Golan Heights in the Six-Day War in 1967 and annexed the territory in 1981. Its administration of the area — which is not recognized by international law — has been mostly peaceful until the Syrian civil war broke out 23 months ago.

"This action is mostly political – it’s an attempt to deepen Israeli commitment to the occupied Golan Heights," Israeli political analyst Yaron Ezrahi told FT. "The timing is directly related to the fact that the Syrian government is dealing with violence and chaos and is not free to deal with this problem.”

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Earlier this month we reported that Israel is considering creating a buffer zone reaching up to 10 miles from Golan into Syria to secure the 47-mile border against the threat of Islamic radicals in the area. 

The move would overtake the UN Disengagement Observer Force Zone that was established in 1973 to end the Yom Kippur War and to provide a buffer zone between the two countries.

Reed notes that recent natural gas finds off Israel’s coast in the Mediterranean have made Israel’s offshore gas reserve is one of the largest of its kind in the world and will make the Jewish state a significant energy exporter in its region.

SEE ALSO: Israel Faces Increasing Danger As Assad Weakens

SEE ALSO: The Syrian Civil War Has Officially Spread Into Lebanon

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The Country Formerly Known As Syria

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syria“MY COUNTRY is being destroyed,” sobs Ahmad, a student from the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor who joined the protests when they began in March 2011. “The regime is killing us, many of the opposition fighters are becoming criminals and the world is watching it like a film.” He is worried that onlookers may think this is normal, seeing that Syria lies in the centre of a region which is no stranger to wars and strife. Syria, with its chemical weapons, alliance with Iran, shrinking government and spreading militias, has become the confluence where all that is worrying about the Middle East comes together.

Two years ago Syria was a rather sleepy place. The muezzins’ call to prayer and the peal of church bells mingled above the rooftops of Damascus, the world’s oldest continually inhabited capital city, where Syrians liked to boast that Christians and Muslims, as well as people from a smattering of other sects, lived side by side in peace. People bustled through the markets. Women could stay out safely alone past midnight. Men played backgammon on the pavements with their neighbours. The Syrian accent, spread through the region by the country’s soap operas, conveyed hospitality and simplicity to fellow Arabs.

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US And UK Draw Up Plans To Seize Or Destroy Syria’s Chemical Weapons

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Chemical WeaponsThey fear that nerve agents and chemical weapons held by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime could fall into terrorists’ hands if the government collapses entirely.

Senior officers have also held talks on a range of “rogue state” contingency plans to prevent chemical, biological or nuclear weapons from being seized by terrorists, which they fear could also happen if Pakistan or North Korea’s regimes were to collapse.

Iran, which according to one senior British source is “bent on developing nuclear weapons”, is also causing great concern to western governments.

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How To Save Syria From Al Qaeda

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nusraTactically, President Obama is operating true to form in Syria; he’s wisely avoiding ever creeping military measures on behalf of rebels, many of whom might well turn out to be even worse than the already viperous President Assad. But also typically, the Obama team seems to be without a longer-term strategy that explicitly and relentlessly locks onto the real emerging threat within Syria – al Qaeda and its devious affiliates.  This strategy would go way beyond simply dumping a nasty dictator, or pressing for illusory deals between Assad and a Turkey-based rebel group devoid of meaningful power. Meantime, Syrians still drown in bloodletting, chaos, and refugees, while the Assad side weakens only by endless inches.

The real dangers in Syria today come less from Assad, or even Iran, and much more from increasingly potent Sunni extremist fighters. If the “rebels” win, as matters now stand, jihadis likely would be the real victors. They’d swiftly create a terrorist state to menace Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel. U.S. strategy must be constructed to blunt that nightmare.

Stopping jihadis from taking over Syria could represent the only common goal between Syria’s ruling Alawites and the secular Sunni rebels. Shiite-related Alawites rightly fear an al Qaeda-like triumph in Syria as the worst possible outcome. There can be no doubt in their minds that Sunni extremists would make the mass killing of Alawites their number one priority. The secular leaders of the Syrian rebels, clustered in the exile group known as the Syrian National Council, also must worry about the extremist threat they themselves would face if the Assad government fell now. Remember, most Syrian Sunnis don’t have a history of religious radicalism. They don’t want rule by shari’a law any more than the Alawites do.

U.S. strategy must focus on building this common ground. Washington should want to ensure that neither its European nor its regional allies gave arms to groups suspected of being even slightly jihadi in nature. In particular, our Arab friends already sending arms must err even further on the side of great caution. Such restraint on our part would show the Alawites we care about their safety, a critical signal. Our negotiating efforts would follow along similar lines: yes, Assad would have to go. Yes, secular rebel leaders and the remaining Alawite leaders would agree to freeze the jihadis out of negotiations and governmental power. And yes, both secular Sunni and Alawite leaders would agree to share governmental power and to protect their own respective communities for the indefinite future. It’s not pretty or easy, but it is common ground.

There are two good reasons to try this strategy, however messy it may be. First, it zooms right in on what most worries the United States and its principal allies neighboring Syria – namely, the prospect of Syria becoming an al Qaeda den. The terrorists would have a ready-made storehouse of modern armaments, i.e. chemical weapons and sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles and radars. Washington is well aware of the dangers, but focused not nearly enough on prevention.

Second, the anti-jihadi strategy just makes more practical sense than the policy ideas now dominating public debate. One favorite is that the U.S. should be promoting negotiations between the rebels and the government. But rebel leaders in Turkey are nearly powerless and with little control of the fighting rebels inside Syria. Of equal importance, there’s nothing on the negotiating table now to sway the Alawites to ditch Assad. Apart from saving lives, we haven’t given either side a good argument for making peace – and obviously, neither side is too concerned with saving lives right now, or they would have stopped killing each other long ago. The negotiating track hasn’t worked, and won’t – unless we get the Alawites and secular Sunnis to focus on common political interests. The UN can keep sending representatives to talk to the rivals, and Secretary of State John Kerry can visit the neighborhood. Alas, none of this will amount to a hill of beans.

The other “solution” gaining ground, especially here in the United States, is for the U.S. to arm the rebels for military victory. That’s much easier said than done; advocates need only stop and imagine our limitations in being able to distinguish between good and bad rebels. Arabs all look alike to Americans, even CIA operatives. Only ignoramuses don’t fret about arms falling into the wrong hands. Proponents of arming the rebels might also note a telling fact – namely, that those Arab states already arming rebels, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, have limited their own distributions. They realize that even if they know the rebels better than Americans do, they don’t know them well enough to give them sophisticated arms. So, if those who know the rebels best can’t figure out whom to arm, and with what, how can Americans do better?

A key dimension to an anti-jihadi strategy for the U.S. and its regional allies would be to help the secular rebels better compete for the hearts and minds of the Syrian people. Right now, jihadis are gaining popularity, as they often have elsewhere, by providing goods and services to the needy and by shunning corruption, at least for the moment. We have to convince the secular rebels to do as much and, if they demonstrate that they can deliver, give them the economic wherewithal to compete. Of course, our other humanitarian aid programs in Syria and border areas should continue and even increase. And indeed, we should make clear to the Syrians that we and their Arab brethren would make a major effort at economic reconstruction in Syria should the secular rebels and the Alawites forge a political compromise excluding the jihadis.

One further word about arming “the freedom fighters.” No one has come close to making a convincing case that doing so, even apart from mistakenly arming bad guys, would result in ending the war sooner or reducing killings. Rather, the pattern has been: the more lethal the rebels’ effort, the more violent Assad’s forces. And if the past is prologue, and more arms proved insufficient, advocates of arming the rebels would soon argue for direct U.S. intervention.

The only strategy that stands a chance – and not even necessarily a very good one – is for the United States, the post-Assad Alawites, and the secular Syrian Sunnis to focus relentlessly on the common goal: stopping the victory of Islamic extremists.

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Pro-Assad Hackers Take Over @AFPphoto And Tweet Graphic Propaganda

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Pro-Assad hackers took over the Agence France-Presse (AFP) Twitter at about noon Tuesday and started posting pro-Assad/anti-Obama tweets and images.

Spokespeople at AFP promptly issued an apology to their followers as the @AFPphoto account is now suspended.

The tactic of hacking social media was also employed during the recent Israel/Gaza conflict, when the vice president had his account taken over, and is one of many tactics employed in the "information war" that underlies contemporary physical conflicts.

These are some of the images posted to the AFP account (warning, some are graphic):

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SEE ALSO: HACKED: Israeli Deputy Prime Minister's Social Media Accounts Hijacked

SEE ALSO: The Twitter Conversation Between Hamas And IDF Is One Of The Most Revealing Aspects Of The Conflict

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How To Take Incredible Pictures And Stay Alive In A War Zone

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goransInternational war photographer Goran Tomasevic has been covering conflicts all over the world for 22 years.

The Serbia native began working for Reuters as a freelance photographer in 1996, and most recently reported on the uprisings in Egypt, Libya, and Syria.

Last week Tomasevic wrote an article describing the 28 days he recently spent on the front lines of the "bloody stalemate" in Damascus.

From Reuters:

As in the ruins of Beirut, Sarajevo or Stalingrad, it is a sniper's war; men stalk their fellow man down telescopic sights, hunting a glimpse of flesh, an eyeball peering from a crack, use lures and decoys to draw their prey into giving themselves away.

Tomasevic also spent 18 days in Aleppo, 15 days on the outskirts of Damascus, and five days in al Qusaiyr the near Homs. He was kind enough to provide us with some insights about the realities on the ground:

On being a photographer in a war zone:

"I’ve received excellent training on how to work in war conditions and have extensive experience, having covered conflicts all over the world for 22 years. I’ve become adept at avoiding snipers and rifle fire but I dread mortar shells because it is more difficult to predict where and when they will land. While I can’t stay entirely out of danger, I’ve come to accept a certain amount of risk, as all war photographers must, in order to capture images of violence, pain and fear."

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On the rebels he spent his time with:

"I spent most of my time with Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters of the Sadik unit of Tahrir Al Shams Brigade, following them into some very heavy battles. Most of them were from a town near Damascus. They were religious, very motivated, well organized, and were also helpful and friendly to me."

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On the makeup of the Free Syrian Army:

"I think most of the FSA are defectors from the Syrian Army, though I don’t have a good guess on the numbers."

On the radical Islamic frontline fighters of Jabhat al-Nusra:

"I saw Jabhat al Nusra fighters a few times. The FSA told me they had attacked a Syrian checkpoint several times while I was there. I heard one of these attacks and it was very heavy fighting and it went on for days. Even the local government-controlled media said that they had lost 12 soldiers in two suicide attacks. I could not cover them because I was warned that they don’t like journalists. I hear from the FSA there are many Jabhat al Nusra fighters in Damascus but I don’t know the exact numbers."

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On the difference between fighting in Aleppo and Damascus:

"In both Damascus and Aleppo it is classic, very dangerous and difficult urban warfare. In both places FSA rebels were religious, very motivated and fought hard against the well trained and well equipped Syrian Army. In both cities the Syrian army used very accurate sniper and mortar fire. The key difference I noticed was in Damascus the FSA was fighting much closer to the Syrian Army than in Aleppo in August when I was there. In Damascus sometimes I witnessed the FSA and the Syrian army fighting within 5 to 10 meters of each other."

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On Damascus:

"They were fighting room-to-room in most of the places I visited in Damascus. And based on what I saw, I don’t expect big movements in the frontline in Damascus."

On what could tip the battle there:

"I think the FSA could do more if they had more heavy weapons. But unless this happens, I believe this conflict will carry on for a long time."

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On the outlook on the ground for next six months:

"I don’t see the situation resolving itself that soon."

Check out Tomasevic's description of the front lines >

SEE ALSO: Syria Is Heading For The Worst Possible Scenario

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Iraqi Prime Minister Says War Will Spread If Syrian Rebels Win

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Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said armed conflicts will break out in Iraq and Lebanon if Syrian rebels topple Bashar al-Assad, according to an interview he gave to Adam Schreck and Qassim Abdul-Zahra of the Associated Press.

"The most dangerous thing in this process is that if the opposition is victorious, there will be a civil war in Lebanon, divisions in Jordan and a sectarian war in Iraq,"Maliki said, adding that peace should be achieved through dialogue.

Maliki's stark words may be an attempt to protect the Shiite Crescent— the geographical link between Shiites in power from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.

"The removal of Assad by a Sunni government will weaken the Iraqi Shiites" by emboldening Iraq's Sunnis, Baghdad-based political analyst Hadi Jalo told AP. "Any reasonable person would be surprised if the Iraqi government ... refrains from supporting Assad."

Maliki's comments come at a time when his Shiite-led Iraqi government faces increasing threats.

The major outside threat to Iraq is radical Sunni rebels from Jabhat al-Nusra— the highly effective frontline force that controls controls large swathsof eastern Syria — which isled by veterans of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).

"The Sunnis in [Iraq's Anbar province] are helping with weapons and ammunition," the leader of a powerful rebel group in eastern Syria powerful told Reuters. "Their days (of fighting) will come soon and Inshallah (God willing) we will go to jihad with them. Those Sunnis are our brothers."

Inside Iraq another AQI offshoot, Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), is making a comback and recently called on Sunnis to rise up against the Shiite-led Iraqi government.

Lebanon has seen a rise in attacks on both sides of its border with Syria and the government — led by Iranian proxy Hezbollah — would be largely cut off from its benefactor were Damascus to fall. Sectarian tensions are rising as Syrian refugees pour into the country.

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SEE ALSO: Radical Syrian Rebels Are About To Blur The Border With Iraq

SEE ALSO: Israel Faces Increasing Danger As Assad Weakens

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Love Letter To War Photographer Killed In Syria Leaves Journalist In Choked Silence

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A BBC Radio 4 presenter was so overcome by emotion that he fell silent on air for more than ten seconds today after hearing a moving poem by the girlfriend of a French photographer killed in Syria.

Paddy O’Connell struggled to compose himself following a reading of a love letter from Emilie Blachere to Remi Ochlik, who died alongside Sunday Times journalist Marie Colvin in the besieged city of Homs last year.

After the end of the poem, which was read by Miss Blachere herself, the airwaves were plunged into silence for about 12 seconds before the presenter regained enough composure to speak again.

His voice was choked with emotion as he gave the weather forecast and read the closing credits of Broadcasting House, Radio 4’s popular Sunday morning news programme.

Mr O’Connell, 46, introduced the poem as a “love letter” written for the first anniversary of 28-year-old Mr Ochlik’s death in Syria on February 22 last year.

It takes the form of a list of everything Miss Blachere, a reporter for Paris Match magazine, loved about the talented young photographer, who had previously worked in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

She lovingly describes Mr Ochlik’s “timid smile” and “almost feminine delicacy” as she recalls the many happy days they spent together.

In the most moving section of the poem, Miss Blachere says: “I loved to hear you tell me how everything was going to be alright when I was depressed. If only I could hear you tell me that today.

“I loved it so much how on February 10, a Friday, the last time we saw each other, you told me that I made you happy.

“I could go on. I would have loved to spend my life adding to this list.”

She continues: “We were prepared for everything, except for the worst. Ochlik, I don’t know how I can go on without you.

“In Rome, you told me, ‘love is a weakness’. You were wrong. Today I feel strong.”

The poem ends by quoting ‘Singin’ in the Rain’, the title song from one of Mr Ochlik’s favourite films.

In the slightly abridged version of the love letter broadcast on Radio 4, Miss Blachere concluded: “My angel, take care of yourself. Take care of us.”

After his lengthy pause following the reading of the poem, Mr O’Connell said: “Our thanks to Emilie Blachere. The weather: cloudy across the entire UK, sunny spells are possible almost anywhere.”

Broadcasting House is available to listen to, in full, on the BBC iPlayer .

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As Syrian Rebels Conquer Their First City, Assad Makes Bizarre Comments About Victory

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President Bashar al-Assad said his regime has conquered the "conspiracy" against it, even as rebels overran the capital of Raqa province and captured its governor in the biggest success of their revolt.

Assad in comments published Tuesday in pro-Damascus Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, also said his opponents, backed by foreign powers, were "playing a game of survival" and that his forces were winning on the battlefields.

"The conspiracy against Syria is nearing its end," the newspaper said, citing unnamed politicians who met with Assad in the Syrian capital.

"Significant successes have been made, whose strategic importance is clear even to those in the region and the rest of the world who are making useless plans against Syria's security," the report cited Assad as telling his Arab nationalist visitors.

The politicians described Assad as "very comfortable" with military developments in Syria and had raised "contradictions in the exiled opposition groups' stance... as proof of their failure".

Assad's regime has frequently referred to the revolt that broke out in Syria in March 2011 as a foreign-backed plot against the country, refusing to recognise as genuine the movement calling for his downfall.

Assad's remarks were published a day after Syrian rebels fighting the regime overran the provincial capital of Raqa province in the north, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

On Tuesday, the Observatory distributed a short amateur video filmed by rebels showing provincial governor Hassan Jalili, and Suleiman Suleiman, the ruling Baath party's secretary general for Raqa province, captured by rebels.

"All we want is to get rid of the regime," an unidentified rebel tells the captives, who can be seen sitting in silence, wearing dark suits and pale blue shirts. The veracity of the video could not immediately be verified.

"This is the highest profile capture by rebels of a regime official. Raqa has suffered a lot because of the governor's corruption," Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.

Though insurgents took most of Raqa on Monday, troops and pro-regime militia fought on during the night near the military intelligence headquarters in the city, said the Observatory.

"New army reinforcements are on their way to Raqa," Abdel Rahman said.

Pro-regime newspaper Al-Watan meanwhile described the takeover as "terrorism spreading in Raqa".

"The army and security services are fighting fierce battles in the city of Raqa where thousands of armed men have arrived" from the countryside, said Al-Watan.

"This city was one of the calmest (in Syria) and was considered a refuge for many Syrians who had fled their cities," the daily added.

Raqa was once home to 240,000 residents, but some 800,000 people forced to flee violence in other parts of Syria have sought shelter there since the start of the conflict.

"Armed men are looting homes as well as public and private institutions amidst the city's chaos," said Al-Watan.

Elsewhere, fresh clashes broke out on Tuesday pitting rebels against troops in insurgent enclaves of the city of Homs, said the Observatory.

The battles come three days into a fierce army and pro-regime militia campaign to reclaim rebel belts in the heart of Homs, dubbed by anti-Assad activists as "the capital of the revolution".

An activist in the rebel-held Old City district of Homs, which has been under army siege for eight months, compared Tuesday's round of fighting to "a war of attrition", as rebels fought off the onslaught and both sides sustained heavy casualties.

"Everywhere you look, it's raining bullets," said Abu Bilal. "Everything in the Old City is burning. This is the army's fiercest onslaught on Homs since the outbreak of the revolt" in March 2011.

The Syrian Revolution General Commission, a grassroots network of activists, meanwhile reported "heavy rocket shelling and tank fire on the (nearby) district of Khaldiyeh, while loud explosions shook the neighbourhood and fierce clashes raged".

Some 70,000 people have been killed in Syria's nearly conflict, the UN says.

SEE ALSO: Assad's Seat Of Power Is Not Invincible

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