@RamiAlLolah is a Middle East watcher, activist, and political analyst who has previously published insider information about Israeli strikes inside Syria.
Friday marked the first anniversary of one of the biggest air strikes that has been conducted inside Syria, and particularly in the country's third-largest city, Homs. The strike was the biggest after the strike on Jomrayah research facility that rocked the Syrian capital Damascus in May 2013.
Many believed that the attack in Homs on Aug. 1, 2013, was carried out by Syrian armed opposition groups, launching Grad rockets toward a strategic arms depot of the Syrian army, resulting in a massive explosion that rocked the entire city of Homs.
Unlike many people, I had certain sensitive information days before the strike in Homs that Israel would probably launch a series of strikes on targets inside Syria, mostly related to the Syrian chemical weapons program. Following are a few of my tweets days before the strike happened, later confirmed by other sources:
#EXCLUSIVE 10-13 #Assad#CW sites & depots will be hit at once in 1 massive military operation across #Syria in next 7-10 days! #Israel#US
— Rami (@RamiAlLolah) July 30, 2013
#EXCLUSIVE#PT Among the targeted #CW sites a group of tactical hits will be carried out against #Assad strategic arms depots in #Syria
— Rami (@RamiAlLolah) July 30, 2013
Two days before the Homs strike, the U.S. leaked news about possible Israeli strikes on Syria.
That NYT piece on Israelis missing a few Yakhonts was basically a count-down on the next strike. A buck says this weekend.
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 1, 2013
This guy claimed to have heard rumors of a coming Israeli hit on a CW site: https://t.co/bLjS1qkNRa
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 2, 2013
A rebel group claimed the attack on Homs targeted a strategic arms depot. Many believed that the target was the strategic arms depot in south Homs as per the following map:
@RamiAlLolah Sure! Use these Coordinates: 34.6906391N 36.7285824E instead of a place name. http://t.co/g9XJNT8Gippic.twitter.com/oHhZMDSLdX
— DesertFire (@PS_CA_ArabSpr) August 2, 2013
Although Israel never confirmed or denied the reports suggesting the IAF was behind this strike, I was certain that Israel was behind it.
Almost a year after that strike, numerous previously secret satellite photos were revealed that showed the target was not the arms depot, but rather a secret underground chemical weapons storage facility south of Homs.
The satellite photos revealed that the strike was extremely precise in hitting this facility, which suggests that it was not a lucky rebel Grad missile.
The Syrian Chemical Weapons Program
Syria’s chemical weapons program began in the 1970s with weapons and training from Egypt and the Soviet Union, with production of chemical weapons in Syria beginning in the mid-1980s.
A number of reasons have been postulated for Syria’s adoption of a chemical weapon strategy in the 1980s (source):
- To act as a deterrent to Israeli use of nuclear weapons against Syria
- To compensate for the loss of Egypt as a military ally after the signing of the Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty in 1979
- After recognizing the limitations of Syrian air power against Israel in the 1982 Lebanon War, Syria adopted an alternative missile strategy, which required a non-high-explosive warhead to compensate for lack of missile accuracy
- To act as a deterrent to its powerful neighbor Turkey in any possible dispute
Stockpiling and Production
Damascus began acquiring knowledge, materials, and other resources for their chemical weapons program in the 1980s, reportedly with the help of the Soviet Union. Chemicals and equipment were reported to have been purchased from a range of European companies.
According to the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre (CERS) plants that manufactured chemical agents operated inside Syria before the conflict began at Dumayr, Khan Abou, Shamat, and Furklus, with storage facilities spread across the country.
The Homs Chemical Weapons Facility
Apart from Homs Oil refinery, which was listed in many research reports verified by concerned institutions and intelligence services as a dual-use chemical-production facility, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad built and maintained several chemical storage facilities east of Homs in Furqlus.
The mysterious explosion that occurred last Aug. 1 in Homs probably revealed a secret chemical weapons facility that was established only few years before the 2013 strike.
This is how the secret facility looked like in a satellite photo that was taken few months before the strike:
The following series of satellite photos show how the facility was constructed and developed over a period of 10 years.
As you may probably see from the photos above; the Syrian regime had started building this facility in 2003-04. This facility was probably fully operational by mid-2011.
The following video was filmed during the attack on the site.
The following image shows the direction of the blast based on landmarks in the area.
- The blue circle indicates the area where the video filmed from
- The red line indicates the direction the camera was pointed
- In the video two main locations are visible: the Castle of Homs with couple of cell phone antennas, and a well known mosque called Zafaraan mosque
This second video shows the air strike from a second angle.
And the following image details the location shown in the above video.
Let us go through the map quickly:
- The blue circle indicates the area where the video filmed from
- The red line indicates the direction the camera was pointed
- In the video two main landmarks are visible, apartment buildings: First tower; the second tower and the third tower.
Many reports of the attack suggested the target of the strike was a huge arms depot next to the facility:
The huge arms depot (the yellow circle) is about 1 kilometer from the secret facility (the red circle) and a group of buildings near the facility. Few will assume that the secret facility could be destroyed by the massive explosion and fires from the alleged strike on the arms depot. If this assumption is logical, then the group of buildings (the blue circle) should also be wiped out because they are at the same distance as the secret facility from the huge arms depots.
The newly revealed satellite photos reveal that this group of buildings remained intact with very minor damage — suggesting the strike targeted the secret facility and nothing else.
Also note the sports arena in the following satellite photo:
The sports arena was an old project that was started and almost completed before construction of the secret facility. (Check the series of the satellite photos taken over 10 years for the secret facility above.) The sports facility is isolated and has nothing to do with the secret facility. The secret facility has three main visible entrances apart from the secret underground entrance that you will see in the new satellite photos.
A year after the mysterious explosion in Homs, the newly released satellite photos finally reveal the truth behind the strike. Unlike what many suggested, the target of that strike was not the arms depot; it was the secret underground facility.
Following are the satellite photos, posted by @finriswolf and captured months after the strike, showing the extensive cleaning job by the Assad regime to clean up the remains of the facility:
Let us go through the details of each photo (Thanks for @finriswolf for outlining all the details):
- This photo taken after 2 months of clean up.
- This is the main tunnel entrance used for underground access/construction.
- This area was part of the facility as well with underground entrances/exits.
- This group of buildings also had a connection with the site, though damage here was very minor.
- Other entrances/tunnels. Note the 1st of 3 circles blank spot in lower right
And finally another photo of the secret facility a few months after the attack:
It is worth mentioning that after the attack on the secret facility tens of suffocation cases were reported among civilians and regime soldiers near the site, which suggests that an unspecific number of chemicals or warheads loaded with chemical agents were stored inside the facility at the time of the strike. A lot of activists reported cases of suffocation.
Could there have been chemical weapons stored in the Homs depot? Hospitalized regime soldiers allegedly showing symptoms of exposure. #syria
— Paradox (@Paradoxy13) August 1, 2013
#Syria#Homs Death toll rose to 200 people after massive blast in munition depot eyewitness told Reuters- many died from gas suffocation
— Mark (@markito0171) August 1, 2013
Following the strike in Homs; a couple of massive mysterious explosions rocked Damascus. No one was able to identify the source of the explosions, the location, or who was behind them. It was also reported that a couple of unknown regime facilities in Damascus (Adra/Duma) were destroyed. Unfortunately, we couldn’t find any satellite map imagery to confirm this.
Conclusion
The attack in Homs and evidence from satellite photos suggests Assad may still be hiding further production and storage facilities for chemical weapons. This incident also suggests that Israel targeted the Syrian chemical weapons program at least once before the Aug. 21 Sarin attacks in Damascus.
Credits
I would like to credit the following people who helped me directly or indirectly to bring this article to you:
@finriswolf The man behind the never seen before satellite photos of the secret facility in Homs, without which this article wouldn’t exist
@Brown_Moses and his new project Bellingcat that helped many including me with his advice and guidance on learning techniques about geo-locating certain locations and points of interests and linking them to mysterious events that occur around them.
References
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22307705
http://defenceforumindia.com/syrian-crisis-chemical-weapons-451
http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/syria_chemical_facilities.pdf
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6916941.stm
http://foi.se/ReportFiles/foir_1290.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria_chemical_weapons_program
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2007_Syrian_arms_depot_explosion