Today, Russia endorsed an Egyptian-led initiative to establish a peaceful resolution to the civil war in Syria — a sign that the country's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may start coming to an end.
The action isn't totally unprecedented, and is in some ways in line with Russia's prior stance towards the Syria conflict. Russia has cautiously supported the embattled leader and maintained a position of non-intervention. Diplomats and senior officials in Russia have condemned the violence, but have maintained that it is a regional issue, which should be handled by regional powers and foreign states should not intervene militarily..
"Our main task at this stage is to get all the Syrians who are fighting each other to stop shooting and sit down at the negotiating table,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “It is essential that all outside players use their influence with various Syrian groups, be it government or opposition forces, to send the same signals."Lavrov noted in March that Russia does not support the Assad regime, but rather a specific "philosophy of international relations and the Syrian people’s right to solve their own problems"
The action also is in line with the "pragmatism" that many believe defines Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy.
Deputy Director of Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Matthew Rojansky told Business Insider last month that "Putin himself is realistic — he’s a businessman, first and foremost. And I regard him much more as a Russian CEO than a soviet-style party leader."
He added:
[Putin's] interest in spheres of influence, if you use that term, is much closer to home — it’s about the near-abroad and the former Soviet countries that are on Russia’s borders. It’s very much not about playing geopolitical chess in the Middle East. He sees that as a losing proposition ... What [Russia has] done with Assad is they’ve picked a clear red line. But even that line may waver and change as opportunities arise — it’s very opportunistic I think is the key."
However, their support for the newly led initiative is surprising based on the governments involved. The Egyptian led coalition also includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Of those four states, only Iran has maintained its support for Assad — the other three have called for him to step down.
And today, Lavrov told an Egyptian newspaper that Russia sold $1 billion worth of weapons to the Syrian regime last year. Russia claims that the weapons "were meant for defense against external threats, not to support President Bashar al-Assad."
An arms sale and a continued opposition to a U.N.-backed arms embargo appear to translate to implicit support for the Syrian regime ideologically. However, a profitable arms agreement with a historic ally could be seen by some as a pragmatic step to bring in revenue. But opponents claim that Russia will have trouble collecting payment from the cash-strapped Assad regime.
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