How will Syria dispose of its chemical weapons?
Syria has formally applied for membership of the Chemical Weapons Convention. This obliges the country to get rid of its 1,000 tons of chemical gases and nerve agent following a full and immediate declaration of its stocks. It can invite the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to supervise and carry out the task. But the Geneva deal goes above and beyond these requirements. It demands a complete Syrian inventory within one week and unfettered access for chemical weapons inspectors as soon as they arrive.
Can the task be completed in just nine months?
American has spent more than 20 years and $30 billion getting rid of its 30,000 tons but the task is only 90 per cent complete. Russia is similarly behind schedule. Syria has a smaller arsenal but there is a raging civil war that will affect the security of inspectors and the feasibility of large-scale disposal operations. The best prospect is to export the stocks.
Export? How and to where?
America says it has been tracking Syria as it moves its chemical weapons around the country in response to the civil war and the threat of air strikes. It claims the material remains within government controlled zones. These are mostly concentrated around the coast. In the best of conditions the stocks could be taken to the ports and put on ships to Russia, even America.
Is the Syrian government really willing to hand over its deadliest asset?
Everything has its price. The Syrian regime may see this as an opportunity to show it can survive a confrontation with the world's greatest superpower. Furthermore it now knows that further use of the weapons would bring retaliation. Moscow's firm response to events also demonstrates it draws a firm line against chemical weapons. Lastly, the removal of chemical weapons diminishes the likelihood that extremists opposed to the regime will take control of parts of the arsenal and use it against the government.
What if Syria uses negotiations over inspections to drag their feet?
The rebels are significant here. There are clear warnings that while the Damascus government has overall responsibility for the safety of the inspections regime, rebels must also given undertakings for safe conduct. The unknown aspects of this deal are myriad but one of the most potent is daily wrangling over the safety and the free movement of the inspectors. Similar game-playing during the near-decade of weapons inspections in Iraq led to a regular cycle of confrontation and crises.
Russia has conceded that ultimately Syria could face Chapter 7 sanctions, including military action. Does that put Syria on the same path as Iraq?
Bashar al-Assad is not facing the same tests as Saddam Hussein. But it is now forgotten that Saddam did give up practically all his arsenal to the UN-sanctioned inspection regime. Assad appears to have achieved no tactical advantage in eastern Damascus by using the weapons. Instead the attack changed the international political calculus on the conflict. It has improved prospects for a peace conference that could hasten the end of the civil war.
