- Civil war in Syria has lasted nearly eight years since it spurred from the Arab Spring in 2011.
- While President Bashar al-Assad has prevailed with help from Russia and Iran, many players still seek to gain control of territory.
- With many competing for power and control, will peace ever come to this war-torn region?
- Political scientist Ian Bremmer takes an in-depth look at the nations and leaders involved in the Syrian conflict.
Ian Bremmer: To begin to understand this war, let's look at the outside players.
First there's also Iran, Assad's main regional ally. Its government‚ opposed by some hostile Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE‚ wants to see the Islamist groups, rebel militias and other Assad enemies crushed, but its leaders are also watching to be sure Russia, Assad's other reliable ally, doesn't muscle Tehran out of the way.
That brings us to Russia's Vladimir Putin. He wants to expand his country's influence in the Middle East. He's looking to avoid a bloody battle in Idlib that would further alienate Europe and make it more difficult to raise funds to rebuild Syria.
Russia is, for the moment, supporting Turkey's bid for a truce. But like Assad and like Iran, Putin is ready to end this war and his patience, too, isn't unlimited.
Next there's Turkey. President Erdogan really wants to avoid an all-out final battle in Idlib because Turkey's economy has more than enough problems now without another surge of refugees. They already have 3.5 million Syrians in makeshift camps in Turkey and a full-on fight in Idlib would send another tidal wave of desperate Syrian civilians scrambling toward Turkey's border.
Watching closely are European leaders, especially those who lead countries that also house big numbers of migrants. And that's politically unpopular there. Whatever their opinions of Assad's savagery, the Europeans know that reconstruction of Syria can't begin until Syria's strongman gets a hold of his country. Only then can some of the Syrians now living in Europe return home, easing the pressure on European politics.
The bottom line is that the fate of Syria isn't just left to the Syrians.
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