Russian President Vladimir Putin said he's pulling his troops out of Syria as the country's civil war drags into its fifth year, Reuters reported Monday.
Putin reportedly called Syrian President Bashar Assad on Monday to inform him that a troop withdrawal would take place the next day, declaring that Russia's military intervention in the Syrian war had largely achieved objectives.
"The task assigned to the Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces as a whole has been largely accomplished, so I order the minister of defense to begin withdrawing the main part of our military factions of the Syrian Arab Republic tomorrow," Putin said, according to Russian news agency Interfax.
The Kremlin announced that in order to monitor the two-week-old ceasefire between the regime and opposition forces on the ground, some Russian forces will remain behind. It's not clear whether Russia will stop carrying out airstrikes in Syria.
Russia's bombing campaign has mostly focused on rebels that oppose the Assad regime. While Putin has said that Russia is in Syria to fight terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (aka ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh), the country's airstrikes and advisers have mostly focused on bolstering the Assad regime.
Analysts were quick to point out that Russia's statement leaves room for the country to continue its mission in Syria in some capacity.
Hassan Hassan, a Syria expert who coauthored "ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror,"noted on Twitter that a "big caveat" is that the Kremlin's statement mentions withdrawing only "main forces."
Michael Kofman, a Russia expert and public-
"They’re obviously not going to pick up everything and leave," Kofman told Business Insider. "They’re going to keep an air presence there for sure. … It’ll be quite important to maintain a presence in the region and their negotiating positions with Syria."
The Russian drawdown isn't likely to significantly change the picture on the ground in Syria, but it could give Russia more bargaining power in the ongoing peace talks between the regime and the opposition in Geneva, Switzerland.
Russia is "trying to signal to the regime that they need to accept anything they come up at the peace talks," Kofman says. "Russia is quite intent on seriously negotiating and they don’t want Syria to sabotage that. They don’t want them to think that Russia is going to be on the hook" in Syria.
The move could also be meant to help Russia's political standing in Europe.
"From day one, Putin saw the Syria intervention as bolstering Russia's position in the region and with Europe," Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group and author of the book "Superpower," told Business Insider via email.
"Presiding over a worsening conflict and Western perceptions of Putin "weaponizing" refugees undermined this strategy and made it harder for Russia to secure a European rollback of sanctions. The pullback, while still maintaining military bases, makes sense to support the broader international goals."
Putin has been accused of "weaponizing" the migrant crisis to "break" Europe, which has been overwhelmed by the number of refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war.
Aside from helping Russia's standing in Europe, the move to pull back troops could give momentum to peace talks, Bremmer said.
"But the question will be does this do enough to create another 'frozen conflict' of the type the Russians are so fond?" Bremmer said. "In other words, will Assad and his forces be satisfied with their present military position and limited recent territorial gains?"
Since the Assad regime is also supported by Iran and its Hezbollah allies from Lebanon, Assad is likely to push ahead in his mission to quash the rebels, and a Russian pullback won't necessarily lead to a sustainable ceasefire.
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