Unfreezing $150 billion in Iranian assets would give Tehran an instant boost and turn the military status quo across the Middle East in its favor, or so argue opponents of the Iran deal.
Another possibility might be that despite its newfound wealth and renewed international relations, Iran could still find itself bogged down in costly quagmires in Arab countries, and possibly losing.
Since 2009, President Obama has given the impression that his interest in the Middle East was waning and that Washington was "pivoting" toward Asia.
If that were so, America would have let Arab countries and Turkey properly train and arm the Syrian opposition. Ordering Jordan to cut the revolutionaries' lifeline in southern Syria to force them to call off their offensive toward Damascus was the starkest example that Washington is not "out of the region" yet.
Obama thinks ISIS is more evil than Bashar Assad, and he wants to keep the lesser of two evils standing. This does not look like US disengagement.
Obama also wants Iran to take over Yemen, the same way Washington likes to see Tehran win the upper hand in Iraq and Syria. When the Saudi-led coalition launched Operation Storm of Resolve to roll back Houthi insurgents and restore the Yemeni government in Sanaa, America used all possible arm-twisting tactics to halt the offensive.
Suddenly, after watching Iran and its allies cause the deaths of 200,000 Syrians, the Obama administration voiced concern over civilian casualties in Yemen. America withheld military assistance to Arab armies, tried to lift a naval blockade designed to prevent Iran from rearming its Yemeni allies and refused to supply the Arabs with satellite images of the deployment of Houthi fighters.
But what does not kill you only makes you stronger.
Arab capitals told Washington that if it did not fulfill its multi-billion-dollar arms contracts, they would take their business elsewhere, such as to Paris, where the Arabs bought intelligence that allowed them to reverse the Houthi tide, regain Aden, and go on the offensive.
And in the same way Arabs were left to fight their corner in Yemen, and so broke with their American ally there, Arab officials are now whispering about breaking with Washington on Syria. Turkey’s bombing of ISIS and Kurdish militant targets is only the tip of the iceberg. Arab capitals are working to win over other regional countries to keep armament lifelines open for Syrian rebels.
If, as in Yemen, the tide of war in Syria is reversed against Iran and its allies, it will be clear that Iran's $150 billion cannot turn things as drastically as expected. In Syria, Iran and Bashar Assad have maintained the upper hand because of their military edge in terms of air power and Hezbollah's elite force.
However, Iran and Assad have been facing manpower shortages, and there is little that money can do to make up for the deficit in fighters.
The nuclear deal with Iran might still prove to be a game-changer, but months before the deal another game changer had taken place. A new leadership had assumed power in Riyadh. Saudi's new policy is based on the use of its armed forces with its top-of-the-line military hardware.
The UAE has already deployed a brigade in Yemen. For Iran to go back to winning, it will have to do more than push its ragtag militias forward.
And even if Iran tries to counter the Arabs with its regular forces, it will take the Iranian military many years to achieve technological parity with its Arab counterparts. Even then, the Iranians will be fighting on Arab land, which clearly gives Arab forces the advantage.
While legitimate, opposition to the Iran deal has been based on a streak of wins that Iran achieved between 2005 and 2014. But these wins seem to be winding down and the tide reversing. If America gets out of the way and the Arabs manage to beat Iran, the world will be looking at a new Middle Eastern paradigm.
And Tehran should be the first to be alarmed by such a scenario.
Under international sanctions, the Islamic Republic could always blame the oppressive West for the misery of Iranians. But with sanctions gone and Iran back to normal, diplomatically and commercially, Tehran will have to deliver by raising Iran's relatively low standards of living.
Finally, if the Arabs beat Iran on the battlefield and bog it down in a costly quagmire, and if Iranians fail to show economic improvements, Iranian rage might turn against the regime's military adventurism around the region.
The future might not be so rosy for the Iranian regime, even with $150 billion.
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