The contest to reverse ISIS's territorial gains in Iraq is escalating. The recent success achieved by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and allied forces in Tikrit has set a decision point for the government, the U.S.-led coalition, and Iranian-backed militias regarding the next objective in the fight against ISIS.
All sides agree on the need to dislodge ISIS from all Iraqi territories, but the sequence in which this goal should be accomplished varies.
A U.S. official expressed the desire to move north, toward Mosul, although developments on the ground appear to be moving in a different direction.
Defense Minister Khalid al-Obeidi hinted that an operation towards Anbar is nearing, although he refused to provide a specific timeline.
The statement came following a meeting with the Governor of Anbar, Suhaib al-Rawi, in which the former indicated that both sides agreed on a mechanism to arm Anbari tribes to assist the ISF.
Although Anbar has preexisting military and human terrain that can facilitate the launch of wide operations, the province has vast desert areas ISIS has used extensively to facilitate its operations and to train its fighters prior to the fall of Fallujah in early 2014 and further Anbari districts in the summer offensive of June 2014.
ISIS experience in the Anbari desert and its likely ability to enforce its ranks in Anbar by deploying military assets from Syria would pose further challenges to the ISF. The role of the Iranian-backed militias is uncertain in such an operation, but the militias are unlikely to stand idle as operations continue.
If, as in Tikrit, a situation unfolds whereby Iranian-backed militias do not participate, then the government will likely work with other Iraqi Shi'a armed groups similar to those that participated in the Tikrit operation. Meanwhile, the unrest caused by Saraya al-Khorasani in Balad sheds light on the negative role Iranian-backed militias can play in areas with relative stability after an existential ISIS threat is deterred.
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