Quantcast
Channel: Syria
Viewing all 4970 articles
Browse latest View live

Russia blames Israel after Syria, an ally, killed 15 by downing a Russian plane in a wild air battle

0
0

israel f 16i sufa

  • Russia blamed Israel after Syria shot down a Russian plane above the Mediterranean during an air battle on Monday night.
  • Russian media said four Israeli F-16s carried out the attack in Syria and that Israel gave just one minute's warning to Russia, which maintains large military bases in the region.
  • Syrian air defenses sprang to life during the attack, but it's unclear whether they shot down anything besides the Russian Il-20.
  • Russia said it reserved the right to take "commensurate measures" against Israel in response.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has blamed Israel for the downing of a Russian spy plane by Syrian antiaircraft artillery in the Mediterranean.

The Il-20 plane went down during a massive air battle between Israeli jets and Syrian air defenses, which sprang to life during a missile attack that pounded an ammunition depot and an industrial compound.

Israel's air force confirmed its attack on Syria on Twitter on Tuesday, saying it attacked a weapons site that it believed Syria would have transferred to terrorist groups to fire on Israel. The Israeli air force expressed sorrow for the loss of Russian life but put the blame firmly on Syria's air defenses, which it said fired indiscriminately.

Photo and videos of the event show bombs hitting the ground while air-defense rockets streak skyward. No video from the incident has shown a successful interception.

Syria, a Russian ally, operates numerous Russian-made air defenses but has never demonstrated a significant ability to intercept incoming missiles. Though Syria claimed it downed many of the missiles fired by the US last year and earlier this year as punishment for chemical attacks blamed on the Syrian military, it never provided any evidence. During the US strikes, Syrian missile defenses appeared to fire wildly and sometimes without a target.

Russia said its Il-20 went down about 35 kilometers from the Syrian coast at about 11 p.m. local time, during the heat of the battle.

Russian media said that four Israeli F-16s carried out the attack and that Israel gave just one minute's warning to Russia, which maintains large military bases in the region.

"The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air-defense forces," Russian media reported the Russian Defense Ministry as saying. "As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross section much larger than the F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile."

"As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military, 15 Russian service personnel perished. This absolutely does not correspond to the spirit of Russian-Israeli partnership," the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told Russian state media, Reuters noted.

"We reserve the right to take commensurate measures in response," Konashenkov said.

Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the shoot down "the result of a chain of tragic and chance circumstances,"Reuters notes. Putin acknowledged on Tuesday the accidental nature of the plane's downing and said it didn't compare to the 2015 incident when Turkey shot down a Russian jet in combat.

Russia had previously claimed that a French frigate operating in the area had fired missiles before the Il-20 went down, but France denied participating in the attack.

Russia has frequently boasted about its air defenses in Syria and their ability to repel attacks from even top-of-the-line US stealth jets.

Israeli F-16s are practiced in knocking over Syrian air defenses but remain a generation behind US-made stealth jets in radar-evading technology.

Previous strikes in Syria linked to Israel have given a wide berth to areas populated by Russian defenses, but strikes on the Damascus International Airport on Sunday and the air battle on Monday have played out near Russian forces.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Medical breakthroughs we will see in the next 50 years


Putin backs off Russia's threats against Israel, and calls Syria downing a Russian plane a 'tragic' accident

0
0

Putin navy military russia

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin backed off the Russian Defense Ministry's threats to take "countermeasures" against Israel after Syrian air defenses shot down a Russian military plane over the Mediterranean.
  • Putin called the downing of an Il-20 spy plane and its 15 crew members "the result of a chain of tragic and chance circumstances,"Reuters notes
  • The Russian plane went down after Syria, its ally, fired air defense missiles at Israeli jets attacking what Israel called munitions depots in the country. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin backed off Russian Defense Ministry threats to take "countermeasures" against Israel after Syrian air defenses shot down a Russian military plane over the Mediterranean.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Hungarian President Viktor Orban, Putin called the downing of an Il-20 spy plane and its 15 crew members "the result of a chain of tragic and chance circumstances,"Reuters notes

Earlier, Russia's defense ministry had blamed Israel for purposefully setting up the plane's downing by flying a specific route that drew Syrian air defense fire towards the Russians.

"The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air-defense forces," Russian media reported the Russian Defense Ministry as saying. "As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross section much larger than the F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile."

"As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military, 15 Russian service personnel perished. This absolutely does not correspond to the spirit of Russian-Israeli partnership," the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told Russian state media, Reuters noted.

"We reserve the right to take commensurate measures in response," Konashenkov said.

But Putin's comments next to Orban seem to downplay the possibility that Russia would strike back against Israel. Putin acknowledged on Tuesday the accidental nature of the plane's downing and said it didn't compare to the 2015 incident when Turkey shot down a Russian jet in combat. 

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: An aerospace company reintroduced its precision helicopter with two crossing motors

Syria's air defenses kill 15 Russian airmen in the latest embarrassing blunder

0
0

Damascus skies erupt with surface to air missile fire as the U.S. launches an attack on Syria targeting different parts of the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria, early Saturday, April 14, 2018.

Syria's air defenses have again proven ineffective and even dangerous as they killed 15 Russian servicemembers flying aboard an Il-20 spy plane during an air battle over the Mediterranean on Monday night. 

Syria has Russian-made air defenses that it's had ample opportunity to use as Israel regularly attacks the country and the US has twice fired missiles at its military facilities in response to chemical weapons use. 

But Syria has never credibly recorded an missile intercept. Syria's lone anti-air victory came in February when an Israeli F-16, the same plane rumored to have taken part in Monday night's strike, went down from S-200 fire. 

On Monday night, that same missile defense system not only failed to hit a single Israeli plane or verifiably intercept a single incoming missile, but it took down an allied aircraft in the process. 

Russia's ministry of defense initially blamed the shoot down on a purposeful attempt by Israel to trick Syria into the friendly fire, but Russian President Vladimir Putin later referred to the event as an accident

But, according to Justin Bronk, an air combat expert at the Royal United Services Institute, Israel could have planned on using the Russian Il-20 for cover all along. 

If the Russian Il-20 was on a regular patrol route of the Mediterranean, Bronk said the Israelis may have tried to plot an attack under a leg of its planned flight path, that they would have observed via local intelligence assets or in information sharing with the Russians themselves. 

"One of the Israeli hallmarks when they do these sort of fairly bold strikes within the coverage of the Syrian air defenses is heavy electronic warfare and jamming," Bronk told Business Insider. 

So not only do the Syrians face heavy electronic interference and jamming of their radars, the threat of Israeli bombs rocking their position, and a big, obvious Russian target flying just above the shrouded F-16s, history shows they're just not that good at air defense.

When the US struck Syria in April 2018, photography showed Syrian air defense sites firing missiles that burned across the sky leaving long, bright trails even in the instant it takes to snap a photo. But Business Insider consulted experts at the time to find out that Syria likely fired many of these missiles with out any target at all in a helpless, face saving attempt to convince the people of Damascus that they hadn't sat idly by. 

"It would be very unlikely that the Israelis were trying to engineer a situation where the Syrians shot down a Russian plane," Bronk said, but perhaps they did intend to use the Il-20 overhead to convince Syria not to shoot. 

"The S-200 is not a very sophisictated system," said Bronk. "It's not going to distinguish between a fighter and a big plane."

Syria could have easily communicated with the Russians, but likely relies on voice communications which can easily be overwhelmed in times of crisis. 

If it weren't for the Israeli strike, the 15 Russians likely would have survived to this day. But ultimately, the death of the Russians and downing of the Il-20 comes down to "sloppy fire discipline from Syrian air defenses," said Bronk.

And for sloppy work from Syrian air defenses, this example hardly represents the first. 

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: One bite from this tick could ruin red meat for the rest of your life

Armed by the Kremlin, Russia's national oil company could be the new force in Syria when the troops leave

0
0

syrian soldier

  • In 2007, Moscow's parliament voted to allow its energy giants to create their own militaries, with weapons and technology supplied by the Kremlin.
  • Following the Syrian Civil War, Syria signed an agreement with Russia giving Moscow sole rights to oil and gas production in Syria.
  • With this newfound ability to become a militarized energy company, Gazprom is well-placed to represent Russia's expansion into Syria.
The Conversation

The Iraq War saw the use of commercial military forces — mercenaries — to an extensive degree unprecedented in the modern era. One of the military contracting firms, Blackwater (now Academi), saw four of its security contractors charged with killing 31 people at a Baghdad roadside shooting in 2007 (sentences which were overturned last year).

That same year, 2007, there was a similar shift in the nexus between business and security in Russia when Moscow's parliament voted to allow its energy giants Gazprom and Transneft to effectively create their own militaries, with weapons and technology supplied by the Kremlin.

In fact, Russia's energy firms have followed a trend first started by British oil and gas firms, many of which have hired security contractors for operations in unstable regions. The next logical step is to merge the two: newly armed energy firms become militarised resource companies (MRCs), a wealthier and more resource-rich counterpart to private military companies (PMCs) such as Blackwater. With a well-armed corporate militia, Gazprom and others can aggressively protect assets at home and abroad, and may soon play a major role in Russia's energy plans for Syria.

Syrian OilBefore the civil war, Syria produced over 400,000 barrels of oil per day. But by 2013 the number had dropped to 58,000. And so by January 2018, Syria's beleagured president Assad had signed an agreement with president Putin, Assad's strongest supporter, giving Moscow sole rights to oil and gas production in Syria.

In a sense, Russia is the perfect candidate to monopolise such an offer. Moscow remains unafraid of sanctions against Assad's regime while Putin himself faces similar restrictions by Western leaders. If Russia wishes to realise a long-term goal of turning Syria into an energy transit hub for unrestricted sales in Asia, it will be expected to pump $30 billion or more into restoring Syria's energy infrastructure. In exchange, Russia will have a stronger presence in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean. Anyone courting Syrian energy will be expected to flatter Putin the oil Tsar as much as Assad himself. And the proximity to China as a market is especially attractive at a time when Sino-Russian relations are blossoming.

Gazprom is well-placed to represent Russia's expansion into Syria. Gazprom has groomed its relationship with Assad over the years, so much so that a rival offer by Qatar to construct a gas pipeline was brushed aside by the Syrian leader, who cited his country's excellent relations with the Kremlin and Gazprom specifically as the preferred operator of new hydrocarbon fields.

A new sheriff

Many Russian energy giants are itching to return to Syria as the likelihood of stability increases. Assad has responded generously with an invitation to such firms promising lucrative incentives for companies willing to restore Syria's energy infrastructure. The prolonged presence of Russian workers would easily justify military precautions by the Kremlin. Thanks to the 2007 law, such precautions can be taken by the companies themselves. Energy giants like Gazprom (who are rumoured to have pushed for the legislation) will be armed and ready.

GazpromGazprom is already described by some as a state-within-a-state, boasting control of one fifth of global gas reserves. Should Russia deepen its activities in Syria through Gazprom, it will be exporting Gazprom's corporate military to an already politically complex and fragile region. Perhaps this complication will erode Syria's stability further.

Even if Assad regains complete control, a militarised resource company will no doubt create a situation similar to Ecuador, in which foreign oil firms dictate the political arrangements of their local environment, effectively usurping the state and that state's military so that it is the oil and not the people who are protected.

The risk of multinational oil companies eroding the sovereignty of a weak state is a threat also faced by Iraq (where Gazprom also operates). In an effort to combat the risk of such political erosion, Iraq attempted to regulate the activities of military contractors by establishing the so-called Oil Police. The move effectively sent the message that Iraqi oil was for sale but not its sovereignty, meaning that contractors (and multinational companies) were banned from guarding oil and gas installations. The move has had limited effect. Since their inception, the Oil Police have struggled with defending infrastructure from attack, citing poor training and a lack of resources.

syrian oilAnd oil is Iraq's only commodity. Without the presence of international energy firms, Iraq's already tumultuous economy would worsen in a country where almost 50% of its GDP relies on hydrocarbon sales. For Assad, Russia remains his strongest supporter and a key reason he has clung to his iron throne. When stability returns, Putin will demand his reward.

Gazprom may be a private company, but its ties to the Russian government make it the perfect instrument for political intervention in the energy arena. While Russia has been accused of using mercenaries in Syria, the next move is to export influential corporations that come with an integrated military (under state supervision). Russia is by no means withdrawing from Syria. As Gazprom adds even military-grade drones to its security assets, we must wait to see whether Assad is able to control the foreign oil and gas companies operating in his country, or whether it is these firms, with the oil and gas assets firmly under their control, who command him.

SEE ALSO: Thousands of mental health professionals agree with Woodward and the New York Times op-ed author: Trump is dangerous

SEE ALSO: If Trump were a CEO, his board would have fired him by now

SEE ALSO: We no longer have a sense of shared reality — and there's only one way to fix it

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: The Samsung Galaxy Note 9 is a $1,000 phone that's actually worth it

The Russian military has backed down after the US Marine Corps called its bluff in Syria

0
0

U.S. Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Jorge Castrosamaniego, an assault man with 3rd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, attached to Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force, Crisis Response-Central Command, learns how to utilize an 84 mm Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle near At-Tanf Garrison, Syria Sept. 9, 2018.

  • Following a show of force by the US Marine Corps in Syria, Russia has backed off its earlier threats to conduct operations inside the deconfliction zone, an area of strategic significance for the Russians, the Syrians, and the Iranians.

The Russians appear to have backed off their earlier threats after the US Marine Corps sent them a clear message.

The Pentagon, US Central Command, and Operation Inherent Resolve have all confirmed that Russia has stayed out of the deconfliction zone and is no longer insisting on conducting operations or launching precision strikes in the area near the At Tanf garrison, where US Marines are based.

Russia warned the US twice on September 1 and again on September 6 that the Russian military, together with Syrian and pro-regime forces, planned to carry out counterterrorism operations inside the 55-kilometer deconfliction zone. It accused the US and its coalition partners of harboring terrorists.

Immediately following Russia's threats, the US Marine Corps conducted a live-fire demonstration at the At Tanf garrison to drive home the point that the US military did not need Russia's help eliminating terrorists.

"The United States does not seek to fight the Russians, the government of Syria, or any groups that may be providing support to Syria in the Syrian civil war," the US Central Command spokesman Lt. Col. Earl Brown previously told Business Insider, adding: "The United States will not hesitate to use necessary and proportionate force to defend US, coalition, or partner forces as we have clearly demonstrated in past instances."

"The US does not require any assistance in our efforts to destroy ISIS in the At Tanf deconfliction zone, and we advised the Russians to remain clear," he added.

In the nearly two weeks since, the Russians have not contacted the US military about operations inside the deconfliction zone, an area the Syrians and the Russians want to access to build a strategic land bridge between Tehran and Damascus.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Medical breakthroughs we will see in the next 50 years

The loss of a Russian plane in Syria reveals how Putin is strangely powerless to protect his own troops

0
0

IL-20

  • Russia's ally Syria shot down one of its planes on Tuesday, and it exposes how Russian President Vladimir Putin is strangely powerless to protect his own people or do much more than enforce the status quo.
  • Russia has seen several humiliating defeats in Syria, while its economy has suffered as a result of sanctions and isolation.
  • Putin portrays himself as powerful, but he has failed to protect Russians time and time again.

Russia grappled with a tragedy on Tuesday after Syria, its ally, mistakenly shot down one of its planes flying above the Mediterranean, and it shows how Russian President Vladimir Putin is strangely powerless to protect his own people.

After Russia's Il-20 spy plane went down, its defense ministry quickly blamed Israel, which had attacked Syria with low-flying jets evading and jamming radar during a prolonged missile strike.

Syria's missile defenses, unable to get a fix on the Israeli fighters, had instead spotted a large, slower-moving Russian spy plane flying overhead, locked on, and fired, killing 15 Russians with a Russian-made missile.

"With so much congestion in the Syrian air, it's not surprising at all," Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Business Insider. "This is not the first time when Putin looked like he couldn't protect his people."

After Russian generals blamed Israel and promised "countermeasures" in response, Putin called it a tragic accident, attributed no blame, and did not promise retaliation.

The skies above Syria remain combative and congested. Russian planes continue their routes. Syrian air-defense officers remain jumpy on the trigger, and there's no indication this won't happen again.

Paper tiger Putin

Khmeimim airbase

Russia entered the Syrian conflict with a roar in September 2015. Russian air power saved Syrian President Bashar Assad from a backsliding civil war that had promised to crush him.

Russian missile defenses protected him, and service members all but ensured the US wouldn't raise a finger against the Syrian president, no matter how badly he battered his own people.

But three years have passed, and though Assad remains in power, Russians are still dying in Syria, and the country has become isolated and weak. Russia has lost nine fixed-wing aircraft and an untold number of helicopters in Syria. The US earlier this year devastated a column of Russian mercenaries who approached its position in Syria, killing as many as 300 with superior air power.

Recently, when the US threatened Syria with further punishment for what it says are chemical-weapons attacks, Russia threatened to hit US forces in Syria. The US responded with live-fire exercises, and Russia soon backed down.

After US strikes on Syria in both April 2017 and April 2018, Russia threatened retaliation or cutting communication with the US. And both times, nothing happened.

Putin has time and time again asserted himself as a powerful figure exploiting the void left by the US's refusal to engage with Syria's civil war. But time and time again, Putin has failed to protect his own people.

"Putin filled a vacuum in Syria, but he didn't need to be super powerful to do that," Borshchevskaya said. "Presence is often relevance, and that's what happened in Syria."

While Russia has openly taunted the US to intervene in Syria, Putin has merely correctly estimated the US's complacence, rather than legitimately scared off a determined foe. Putin masterfully played off a lack of US political will in order to convince many European US allies that the US was scared.

"So many people in the West were so worried of risking a war with Russia over Syria," Borshchevskaya said. "That was never going to happen. They don't want to fight a war with us. They know they can't win it."

Russia's strong and weak at the same time

Vladimir Putin Bashar al-Assad Syria Russia

While Russia projects strength with a raggedy aircraft carrier in Syria and a three-year military campaign that has managed to secure a status quo without definitively beating pockets of unsophisticated rebels, its own people felt the hurt.

Putin's aggressiveness in dealing with Syria and Ukraine and his links to international instances of Kremlin critics being poisoned have led to sanctions and isolation for Russia, harming its economy.

In August, Putin broke his 2005 promise not to raise the retirement age, reminding many Russians that, because of lower national life expectancies, they could die before seeing a dime of their pensions but had lived to see that money spent in Syria and Ukraine. Mass demonstrations broke out across Russia.

Russia has done well to achieve its limited objective of keeping Assad in power in Syria. But when it comes to protecting Russian lives, the loss of the Il-20 points to a "hugely embarrassing" trend of Putin failing his people, Borshchevskaya said.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: One bite from this tick could ruin red meat for the rest of your life

Trump is beating up on Iran — and it's making Obama look weak

0
0

trump rouhani iran 2x1

  • President Donald Trump has outraged and defied establishment experts on Iran, but his policies are deeply hurting Iran without any tangible blowback to the US.
  • President Barack Obama and his top officials had warned against many of the moves Trump has now made, but none of their gloomy predictions have come true.
  • The world has overwhelmingly chosen the US over Iran when pressed by the Trump administration's sanctions.
  • Iran remains in the nuclear deal and even some of the country's longtime clients are abandoning it.

President Donald Trump has, at almost every turn, defied experts on Iran policy to take a very aggressive track against Tehran.

Despite this, Trump has yet to suffer a single tangible consequence or any of the nightmare scenarios that President Barack Obama warned against.

Under Trump, the US has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, a move Obama officials warned could send the country sprinting toward a nuclear weapon. Iran remains in compliance with the deal today.

Trump's White House plans to sanction Iran's oil exports in November, and despite warnings of oil prices spiking or European firms picking Tehran over Washington, oil prices are steady and even India, a longtime client of Iran's, has cut ties.

Despite the pain Iran took from Trump's sanctions, experts contacted by Business Insider expect it to remain in the deal. They say the country has few remaining economic lifelines, and publicly breaching the deal to go nuclear could snuff out the remaining embers.

The US military in Syria has repeatedly and stiffly beaten back Iranian and Iranian-linked forces when challenged.

Under Obama, the US sought to give Iran a wide berth in Syria as it worked behind the scenes to reach the Iran nuclear deal. In the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway outside Iran, Iranian ships would frequently harass and threaten US Navy ships. Under Trump, Iran has stopped these provocations.

"The president is doing the opposite of what the experts said, and it seems to be working out," Michael Lynch, the president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, told The New York Times.

Iran is struggling, and the US is fine

iran sanctions

Since Trump took office, Iran has weathered a series of withering economic and military setbacks.

While Iran remains in the deal that sought to relieve the sanctions burden on its oil exports, it has lost out hugely as international businesses overwhelmingly choose not to provoke Trump's ire by buying Iranian oil.

Iran's military, mostly at Israel's hands, has been repeatedly and fiercely targeted by airstrikes, to which it offered limited responses. While the US and much of the world dread the prospect of a nuclear Iran, Israel has made it clear that it intends to take direct and swift military action to destroy the nuclear capabilities of regional rivals like Iran.

The US has arguably damaged its international reputation and relations with European partners in pulling out of the deal, but it's unclear whether this has done any tangible damage to US businesses.

Arms-control experts widely argued that the withdrawal from the Iran deal would show North Korea that diplomacy with the US was pointless, but relations between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appear almost entirely based on mutual good faith at this point.

Trump is breaking all of Obama's rules and coming out on top

trump obama

As Obama's secretary of state, John Kerry spent the years before the Iran deal traveling Europe asking banks to do business with Iran, a country the US designates a state sponsor of terror.

When Trump entered office, Kerry continued his work to help Iranian business in private meetings with officials in the country.

Kerry and Obama sought to have Iran integrated in the world economy as a key part of their signature foreign-policy achievement, and it appears not to have worked.

Of course, Trump benefits from having the nuclear deal in place, which curbs Iran's ability to either saber rattle or actually pursue a bomb. Iran's poor business climate, human-rights record, and internal strife have also scared off businesses that may have in principle wanted to transact with Tehran, aiding Trump's crackdown.

Obama officials frequently argued that the US couldn't unilaterally pressure Iran, but under Trump, Iran's currency, the rial, has tanked.

Obama officials argued that the nuclear deal sought to address the narrow issue of nuclear proliferation and nothing else, mostly leaving US detainees, Iran's regional military ambitions, and Iran's open threats to Israel out of negotiations.

But under Trump, the US has addressed all of its grievances with Iran, including the country's funding of terrorism, the escalating fighting in Syria, its missile tests, and even its oppression of its own people, all while Tehran stays in the deal.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: I woke up at 4:30 a.m. for a week like a Navy SEAL

Moscow to arm Syria with advanced anti-aircraft missiles after a massive air battle downed a Russian plane

0
0

S 300

  • Russia plans to immediately arm the Syria with S-300 anti-aircraft systems in response to the accidental shootdown of a Russian aircraft by Syrian forces during an Israeli airstrike last week.
  • Russia refrained from giving this system to the Syrians in the past due to Israeli protests, but Moscow now blames Israel for the deaths of 15 Russian crew members.
  • Israel blames erratic Syrian anti-aircraft fire for downing the plane.
  • In addition to the provision of S-300s, the Russian defense ministry warned that its forces will target the electronic systems of any military aircraft that launches strikes on Syrian targets, a risky move likely to escalate regional tensions.

Russia has decided to arm its Syrian partners with an advanced anti-aircraft weapons system and to target the electronic systems of any military aircraft that launches strikes in Syrian territory, the Russian defense ministry said Monday in response to losing a spy plane last week.

This incident "has pushed us to adopt adequate response measures directed at boosting the security of Russian troops," Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu explained. Last week, using older S-200 surface-to-air missile defenses, Syrian air defense forces accidentally shot down a Russian Il-20 electronic intelligence plane during an Israeli missile attack. The incident killed 15 Russians. 

Russia intends to "transfer the modern S-300 air defense system to the Syrian armed forces within two weeks," he said. "In regions near Syria over the Mediterranean Sea, there will be radio-electronic suppression of satellite navigation, onboard radar systems and communication systems of military aviation attacking objects on Syrian territory."

"We are certain that the realization of these measures will cool the 'hot heads' and will keep them from poorly thought-out actions which threaten our servicemen," Shoigu concluded in a warning to both Israel, which claims to have conducted 200 strikes in Syria in the past year and a half, and perhaps the US and its coalition partners, which have on more than one occasion struck Syria for the use of chemical weapons.

The Kremlin insisted that the weapons delivery was not directed at any third country.

There were rumors in late April, just weeks after the US, Britain, and France launched strikes on Syria from both air and sea, about the possible provision of Russian S-300 anti-missile batteries to the Syrian regime. Russia has largely refrained from arming the Syrian air defense forces with S-300 due to protests from Israel, which would come under threat from the improved defenses. 

"At the request of the Israeli side, in 2013 we suspended the delivery of S-300 systems that were ready for the dispatch, while the Syrian military had undergone training. Now the situation has changed, and we are not to blame," Shoigu said Monday.

Russia has already sold the system to Iran, much to Israel's dismay given the weapon's ability to threaten Israeli air superiority and complicate air strikes in the event of a conflict. In Syria, Russian troops already operate advanced S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft systems to defend their own ships and planes, but this would be a first for the Syrian air defense forces.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman warned earlier this year that Israel will respond with force if anyone shoots at Israeli planes. "One thing needs to be clear: If someone shoots at our planes, we will destroy them," he explained.

White House National Security Adviser John Bolton said Monday that he hopes Russia will reconsider supplying missiles to Syria, noting that it is a would be a "major mistake" and "significant escalation."

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Medical breakthroughs we will see in the next 50 years


Trump now plans to keep US troops in Syria until Iran gets out, which means America may never leave

0
0

Trump Syria

  • President Donald Trump is reportedly adopting a new strategy in Syria that will see US troops remain there indefinitely. 
  • The Trump administration won't consider withdrawing US forces until Iran leaves the country. 
  • A representative for the secretary of state told reporters in early September, "We are not in a hurry."
  • National Security Adviser John Bolton on Monday said US troops are not leaving Syria "as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders."

President Donald Trump is reportedly adopting a new strategy in Syria that will see US troops remain there indefinitely. 

Now that the terrorist group ISIS has largely been driven into the desert, the Trump administration wants to focus on ensuring all Iranian forces leave Syria moving forward, a representative for the State Department said in early September. 

James Jeffrey, a retired foreign service officer who was recently tapped by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to be his representative for Syria engagement, told reporters, "The new policy is we're no longer pulling out by the end of the year."

He added, "That means we are not in a hurry."

Jeffrey said he's "confident" that Trump is on board with this new plan, which he said will involve a "major diplomatic initiative" in the United Nations and beyond. This all comes just months after Trump said he wanted to pull US forces out of Syria. "I want to get out," Trump said in April, "I want to bring our troops back home."

Over the course of the seven-year war in Syria that has decimated much of the country, Iran and Russia have been Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's closest allies. At present, Assad is close to achieving victory as his forces attack the last rebel stronghold in the country in the city of Idlib. 

Meanwhile, Iran recently reaffirmed its commitment to the Assad regime. Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami in late August said Iran would have "presence, participation and assistance" in the reconstruction of Syria, adding, "and no third party will be influential in this issue." The US is staunchly anti-Assad, but has made it clear it will not pursue regime change.

In short, Assad isn't going anywhere and Iran is poised to stick with him for years to come. Based on the Trump administration's new policy, this also means the US won't be leaving the country anytime soon even as the war is seemingly winding down.

There are currently about 2,200 US soldiers stationed in Syria, where tensions with Russia are on the rise

Trump has addressed the situation in Syria more and more in recent days, issuing stern warnings to Assad and Russia regarding the assault on Idlib.

"If it's a slaughter, the world is going to get very, very angry. And the United States is going to get very angry, too,"Trump said on September 5. 

Trump in the past has already approved limited missile strikes against Assad, prompting suggestions he might use military force again if the Syrian leader employs chemical weapons.

"We've started using new language," Jeffrey said on September 7, adding the use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated by the US "period." 

National Security Adviser John Bolton on Monday reaffirmed the Trump administration's new policy on Syria while at the United Nations in New York. He made it clear the US military will have an indefinite presence in the war-torn country.

Bolton said US troops are not leaving Syria "as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders."

SEE ALSO: Russia threatened a key US base, and US Marines there just doubled-down with a threatening show of force

DON'T MISS: Russia reportedly warns the US that it's prepared to attack a key base where dozens of US troops are stationed

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Everything we know about Samsung’s foldable phone

Russian fighter pilot says he beat an F-22 in a mock dogfight and locked onto it, but Pentagon throws cold water on claims

0
0

f-22 f22 raptor inherent resolve arabian sea

  • An unofficial account of a Russian pilot of the Su-35, Russia's top jet fighter, posted pictures claiming to show a US F-22 Raptor stealth jet flying above Syria as proof that his older, bigger jet can kill it.
  • The Su-35 pilot said it locked on to the F-22 in a mock fight in which the "arrogant" US pilot lost. 
  • Even if the pictures are real, it doesn't prove the Su-35 has any combat advantage over the F-22.
  • The Pentagon told Business Insider it had heard nothing of the incident, casting doubt on Russia's trustworthiness in these matters. 

An unofficial account of a retired Russian pilot of an Su-35, Russia's top jet fighter, posted pictures claiming to show a US F-22 Raptor stealth jet flying in the skies above Syria as proof that his older, bigger jet can outflank it.

The picture shows an F-22 in flight on what looks broadly like an image produced by an infrared search and track (IRST) system, which the Su-35 houses in its nose cone area and looks for heat, not radar cross section, potentially helping it find stealth aircraft at close ranges.

The pilot claims to have spotted the F-22, which has all-aspect stealth and is virtually invisible to traditional radars, during combat operations in Syria.

After describing at length how these encounters usually go (there are dedicated lines of communication used to avoid conflict between Russia and the US as they operate in close proximity over Syria), the author claims to have "locked" on to the F-22.

A Business Insider translation of part of the caption reads: "F-22 was arrogant and was punished after a short air battle, for which of course it got f-----."

F-22 "Raptor". Что для вас "партнёрские"взаимоотношения? Лично для меня, и в воздухе, и в постели это значит, что кто-то кого-то трахает. Причём если в постели это как-бы минимум дружеские взаимоотношения, то в воздухе, это нечто совсем иное. Все партнёрские взаимоотношения предусматривают лишь некий договор не стрелять по "партнёру". Не стрелять боевым оружием. При этом мешать выполнить боевую задачу, если она не выгодна партнёрам, тебе будут всеми способами. Таких способов миллион. Самый банальный, это постановка помех радиосвязи и средствам навигации. Это самый мирный и гуманный способ. Могут пересекать твой боевой курс на минимальных интервалах и дистанциях сбивая тебя спутняком от двигателей. Могут обоссать сливом топлива, могут обстрелять ППИшками. Могут включить все прицелы и имитировать атаки, с выходом из атаки в последний момент. Могут на твоей высоте в лоб запустить парочку беспилотников. А уж станция предупреждения об облучении у тебя будет орать постоянно, даже на сомневайся. И если файтербомберы могут ответить тем-же, то разведке, штурмовикам и бомберам приходится несладко. Поэтому им помогают файтеры и файтербомберы. Они всеми способами делают выполнение боевой задачи своими подопечными возможным. На фото F-22 "Raptor"в прицеле нашего Су-35с. "ОЛС+ТП". В захвате. Да 22й хамил и был наказан после непродолжительного воздушного боя, за который конечно нашего синегрудого трахнули. Все как обычно. Как видите замечательно захватывается и стелс. Да можем. Да не всегда всё получается, но если надо будет - сделаем. #bomberchronics #russianmilitary #aviator #aviation #авиация #вксроссии #aircraft #airforce #jet #avgeek #russiaairforce #avporn #aviationlovers #aviation4u #pilot #aviationgeek #aviationlover #airplane #fighterjet #fighterpilot #piloteyes #militaryaviation #aviationphotography #planes #f22

A post shared by Ivan Ivanov (@fighter_bomber_) on Sep 23, 2018 at 10:03pm PDT on

Russia has long mocked the US's stealth jets and claimed its ability to defeat them in combat. But while Russia can spot US stealth jets by looking for heat, and not radar signature, that's very different from being able to shoot them down. 

Even if the images posted by the Russians are genuine, "it doesn’t alone suggest that the Su-35S is reliably capable of detecting and intercepting the F-22," Justin Bronk, an air combat expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider.

"Furthermore, the F-22 will have been aware of the Su-35’s presence since the latter took off so it isn’t really any indication of a diminishment of the F-22’s combat advantage," he said.

F-22 raptor thermal image

"IRST systems can be used to detect and potentially track stealth aircraft under specific conditions," Bronk said. But that "doesn’t mean that they are anything approaching a satisfactory solution to the problem of fighting against such targets as they have limited range compared to radar, and are vulnerable to environmental disruption and degradation," he added.

In essence, he said, an F-22 would have seen the Su-35 long before the Russians saw the American, and the S-35 likely only spotted the F-22 because it flew up close in the first place. 

Bronk previously described looking for fifth-generation aircraft in the open skies with IRST as being like "looking through a drinking straw." 

Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon told Business Insider that he was "unable to verify the claims made on Instagram," but pointed out that "Russia has been conducting a concentrated disinformation campaign in Syria to sow confusion and undercut US and allied efforts there."

US pilots can tell when their jets have been targeted by enemy weapons, so they would know if the Su-35 pilot established the "lock" he had claimed to. 

Russian media has since picked up the Instagram story, running it with analysis that suggests the Su-35 may be able to defeat the F-22. 

SEE ALSO: Here's why thermal imaging can't stop the F-22 or the F-35

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Ray Dalio says the economy looks like 1937 and a downturn is coming in about two years

Iran fires a barrage of ballistic missiles at Syria in response to parade attack

0
0

iran missile launch syria

  • Iran has fired missiles at militants in Syria it blames for an attack in southwestern Iran on Sept. 22, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on Monday.
  • The Guards said the operation was a sign of Tehran's readiness to punish its enemies' "wickedness."
  • Iran blamed the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, without evidence, for backing terror groups that carried out the September 22 attack, and said it was attacking those groups.

Iran has fired missiles at militants in Syria it blames for an attack in southwestern Iran on Sept. 22, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on Monday (October 1).

The Guards said the operation was a sign of Tehran's readiness to punish its enemies' "wickedness."

The strike took place at 2 a.m. local time and targeted the bases of "takfiri terrorists" backed by America and regional powers in eastern Syria, the Guards said in a statement on Sepah News, the official news site of the powerful military force. Video footage was also released showing several missiles streaking into a dark sky during the attack.

The ballistic missiles used in the attack flew 570 km (354 miles) to hit the targets, the Guards said. A map shown on state TV pinpointed Kermanshah in western Iran as the launch site and Albu Kamal in southeast Syria as the target.

Twelve Guards were among those killed in the attack on Sept. 22, when gunmen fired on a viewing stand as military officials watched a ceremony in the city of Ahvaz marking the start of Iran's 1980-1988 war with Iraq.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest authority in Iran, said last week that the militants responsible were paid by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and that Iran would "severely punish" those behind the violence. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have denied involvement in the attack.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Everything we know about Samsung’s foldable phone

Iran made a ridiculous excuse after shooting itself with a failed ballistic missile

0
0

iran missile launch syria

  • Iran on Monday fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it called terrorist militants in Syria, but Kurds in Iran's Northeast reported soon after that they had been struck by one of the missiles.
  • In response, Iranian semi-official media offered a counterfactual excuse.
  • Iranian media basically said they meant to drop a big rocket motor on a field in Kurdish territory, and fudged the physics on how such an exercise could be possible. 

Iran on Monday fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it called terrorist militiants in Syria, but Kurds in Iran's Northwest reported soon after that they had been struck by one of the missiles.

In response, Iranian semi-official media offered a computer animation of a counterfactual excuse: The explosion near the launch site, they said, amounted to rocket boosters landing as normal, rather than an embarrassing blunder.

Iranian state media announced Iran had launched the missiles and released video from Kermanshah in the country's Northwest where its Kurdish minority lives. Open source intelligence analysts corroborated the launch site in Kermanshah based on imagery analysis. 

Iran said it had targeted militants in Albu Kamal, clear across Iraq just on the other side of the Syrian border about 370 miles west. Islamist militants, including the last pockets of ISIS fighters, have been known to inhabit this area of Syria.

Kermanshah launch map

But at a farm just outside of Kermanshah, still inside Iran, a massive rocket came crashing down, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan said on Twitter. While the blast killed no one, it reportedly destroyed a farm while demonstrating that Iran's missile forces can't be trusted.

Iran's semi-official Fars News then released a video claiming that a rocket booster had landed in the field. It used an animation showing a fictional missile flight path and a rocket booster landing peacefully and softly in a field.

Check out the video below:

Why it makes no sense

Shahab-3 missile Iran

In reality, Iran's shorter-range ballistic missiles need to take their boosters with them almost to the very end of their flight path. 

Ballistic missiles have rocket boosters called "stages" that spend fuel and fall off in flight as the warhead separates and heads back down. For safety, because the stages may still hold some fuel in some stage of combustion, they sometimes deploy parachutes. For obvious reasons, it's entirely undesirable to have a burning rocket motor smash into the ground of an unsuspecting farm.

For this reason, Iran's excuse doesn't make much sense. Even if the farm was only hit with a flaming rocket booster, it was still an innocent farm slammed by a burning rocket booster.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Apple might introduce three new iPhones this year — here’s what we know

The Syrian asylum-seeker who was stranded in a Malaysian airport for six months has been arrested

0
0

Hassan al Kontar guy stuck in malaysia airport

  • A Syrian man who had been stranded at Kuala Lumpur's International Airport 2 since March has been arrested.
  • The story of Hassan al Kontar first took social media by storm in March, when he started posting videos of himself living in the Malaysian airport's transit area.
  • On Tuesday October 2, however, it was reported that the 36-year-old was "no longer" in the terminal.


A Syrian man stranded at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport 2 (KLIA2) since March has been arrested.

The story of Hassan al Kontar first captivated social media in March, when he began posting videos of himself living in the transit area of the Malaysian airport.

On Tuesday October 2, the BBC reported that the 36-year-old was "no longer" in the terminal.

"Passengers at the boarding area are supposed to get on their flights but this man did not do so. He is situated in a forbidden zone and we had to take the necessary action," the news site quoted Immigration director-general Datuk Seri Mustafar Ali as saying.

The immigration chief added that Malaysian authorities would work with the Syrian embassy "to facilitate deportation to this home country".

Read more: The Syrian asylum-seeker trapped in an airport for 57 days explains his daily life

Hassan, who has more than 16,000 followers on Twitter, often provides updates on his life at KLIA2 on social media.

The Star reported Mustafar as having said Malaysia needed "closure" over the saga.

"The man claimed that he does not want to return to Syria because he is afraid of becoming a soldier there, or whatever his real reason is. But we need to have closure here," he is quoted as saying.

According to reports, Hassan had been working in the UAE until he was deported in 2016 when war broke out in Syria and his work permit could not be renewed.

As he refused to comply with mandatory military service, he needed to seek asylum in another country but was refused entry into Cambodia, and was not allowed back into Malaysia after being barred from a flight to Ecuador.

SEE ALSO: Iran made a ridiculous excuse after shooting itself with a failed ballistic missile

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Why horseshoe crab blood is so expensive

Russia claims it has killed 85,000 terrorists and zero civilians in Syria

0
0

Civil defence members and civilians search for survivors under the rubble of a site hit by what activists said were cluster bombs dropped by Russian air force in Maasran town, in the southern part of Idlib province, Syria October 7, 2015.

  • The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights say Russian air strikes and artillery shells have killed 18,000 people, including nearly 8,000 civilians.
  • But Moscow said on Sunday it has killed 85,000 "terrorists" and zero civilians. 
  • Moscow also said 112 Russian military personnel have been killed in Syria over the last three years, not counting hundreds of private contractors killed in a US air strike last year.

Human rights groups accuse Russia of killing thousands of people in Syria, but the Kremlin claims it has killed even more. 

On the third anniversary of Russia’s military intervention in Syria, an independent monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said Russian air strikes and artillery shells have killed 18,000 people, including nearly 8,000 civilians.

The Syrian Network for Human Rights, another monitoring group, alleged 6,239 civilians have been killed, including 1,804 children at the hands of Russian forces, according to a 40-page report it issued on Monday.

But the Kremlin says it killed significantly more in its quest to bolster the rule of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The head of its parliamentary defence committee announced on Sunday that it had killed 85,000 people, calling them all “terrorists”. Russia also claims it has not killed a single civilian in Syria over the last three years.  

A total of 112 Russian military personnel have been killed in Syria over the last three years, not counting hundreds of private contractors killed in a US air strike last year.

Viktor Bondarev, head of the parliamentary defence and security committee, said the sacrifices were worthwhile since they prepared Russia for future battles and taught the armed forces to fight. 

“The most important criteria of military prowess is not just the victory but also its price,” he said, according to the Interfax news agency.

The September 2015 Russian intervention in Syria changed the course of the war, tipping the balance strongly in favour of the pro-Assad forces at a time when rebels were seen to be winning the conflict. But Russia has also been accused of inflicting horrific attacks on Syrian civilians, with human rights monitors accusing it of indiscriminately bombing populated areas, and targeting hospitals in an attempt to degrade life in rebel-held territories.

The White Helmets, a rescue group funded by US, UK and other western countries, issued a report on Sunday also accusing Russia of disregarding truce and de-escalation deals it itself helped broker over the last three years.

The report by the Syrian Network for Human Rights, which is close to the opposition, accused Russia of culpability in war crimes, including 321 mass-casualty incidents and 954 attacks on civilian infrastructure such as schools, medical facilities, and markets. The Pentagon last week admitted it had killed at least 1,100 civilians while fighting Isis in Iraq and Syria. 

The three-year anniversary of the Russian intervention comes as the Kremlin seeks to wrap up the conflict. Russia struck a deal with Turkey last month to stave off an impending attack on the rebel-held Idlib province. That deal​ included the establishment of a demilitarised buffer zone between opposition and government forces that would be devoid of fighters and heavy weapons.  

In recent days, the successor to the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda has begun rounding up foreign fighters in Idlib. Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a coalition of rebel fighting groups that includes the successor to the al-Qaeda-controlled Jabhat al-Nusra, has reportedly arrested dozens of non-Syrians within its ranks, according to jihadis on social media.

Prominent al-Qaeda supporters online said HTS arrested around 34 foreign fighters, accusing the group of betraying the jihadi cause and acceding to demands by Turkey, which has emerged as the primary patron of the Syrian opposition to Assad’s rule.

But others say the detentions could just be part of internal convulsions within HTS, which is riven by factions.

“What’s happening in regards to arresting and even the assassination of specific fighters is not a new thing,” said Nawar Oliver, a researcher at the Omran Institute for Strategic Studies, an Istanbul think tank.

“Since April 2018, HTS has had a huge campaign to solve the security problems of Idlib, and the two methods used were assassination and arrests.”

SEE ALSO: Iran made a ridiculous excuse after shooting itself with a failed ballistic missile

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Apple might introduce three new iPhones this year — here’s what we know

Russian missile defenses arrive in Syria — and US and Israeli fighters could be in the crosshairs

0
0

air force

  • Russia has delivered its powerful S-300 missile defense systems to Syria after losing 15 servicemembers and a spy plane to a friendly fire incident during an Israeli air raid.
  • Syrian air defenses reportedly have targeted US jets before, and downed an Israeli jet in February.
  • The US and Israel both say they'll keep fighting in Syria, and that means air power for the advanced militaries.
  • Syria has been at war for seven years, but somehow avoided that war spilling over into a great power conflict. But with Russia escalating the stakes, serious confrontations could play out.

Russia has delivered its powerful S-300 missile defense systems to Syria after losing 15 servicemembers and a spy plane to a friendly fire incident during an Israeli air raid, and the systems raise the prospect of a Russian war against Israel or the US.

Russia's new S-300s will replace older systems that have a poor track record of defending against airstrikes of any kind. Israel has attacked targets in Syria more than 200 times and the US has twice fired large salvos of Tomahawk Cruise missiles into the country.

The only confirmed success of Syria's previous air defenses came in a February shoot-down of an Israeli F-16. In other cases, Syrian air defenses have been captured firing blindly

But despite the acutely increased risk to Israeli forces, the Jewish state remains committed to carrying out its mission in Syria. 

"We have not changed our strategic line on Iran," said Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennett, a member of Israel's security cabinet, according to Radio Free Europe

"We will not allow Iran to open up a third front against us. We will take actions as required," he said.

Iran has an estimated 70,000 fighters in Syria and seeks to wield its influence in the country to facilitate arms transfers to Hezbollah, a US-designated terror group bent on Israel's destruction with a political presence in Lebanon. Israel, over hundreds of airstrikes, has sought to defeat that mission.

"Introducing the S-300s to the Syrian government would be a significant escalation by the Russians," President Donald Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, said at the UN General Assembly in September.

The more capable S-300s could aide Syrian air defenses in targeting US jets that operate in the region. Breaking Defense reported in September that US jets have frequently been "painted," or marked as targets, by Syria air defenses that sometimes fire and miss at the Americans.

With Syrians operating improved missile batteries, US jets may find themselves credibly threatened, in which case they may exercise their right to self defense.

Business Insider in September reported that the Russian servicemembers will staff S-300 missile defenses in Syria.

The US, like Israel, has vowed to continue operations in Syria until Iran backs off. With a very small ground presence in Syria, the US largely relies on air power to protect its forces.

For Syrians enduring a seven-year civil war that has killed and displaced millions, major war has been their horrific reality.

But now, with Russians manning potentially deadly missile defense in Syria, and Syrians targeting Israeli and US jets that remain determined to stay, the risk of a war spilling out of the region and into a US-Russian conflict has risen steeply.

"Having Russian servicemen or officers either operate this system or be in the vicinity training Syrians means that any Israeli suppression of enemy air defenses mission will run escalation risks not with an Arab or Iranian military force, but with the Russians," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a Syria expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Business Insider.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: 3 surprising ways humans are still evolving


Russia's submarines are showing they can strike deep inside Europe, and they've got the US Navy on edge

0
0

Yasen class Russian submarine

  • NATO officials have repeatedly warned about the rising threat posed by Russian submarines.
  • A major concern is those subs' land-attack capabilities, which now allow them to strike deep in Europe.
  • NATO navies have ramped up anti-submarine-warfare tactics, but those land-attack missiles may mean ASW needs to change.

NATO naval officials have repeatedly warned about Russia's submarines — a force they say is more sophisticated and active.

US Navy officials have said several times that Russian subs are doing more now than at any time since the Cold War, though intelligence estimates from that time indicate they're still far below Cold War peaks.

They're also worried about where those subs are going. US officials have suggested more than once that Russian subs are lurking around vital undersea cables. (The US did something similar during the Cold War.)

But the most significant capability Russian subs have added may be what they can do on land.

Long-range Kalibr cruise missiles are launched by a Russian Navy ship in the eastern Mediterranean

Asked about the best example of growth by Russia's submarines, Adm. James Foggo, the head of US Naval Forces in Europe and Africa, pointed to their missiles, which offer relatively newfound land-attack capability.

"The Kalibr class cruise missile, for example, has been launched from coastal-defense systems, long-range aircraft, and submarines off the coast of Syria," Foggo said on the latest edition of his command's podcast, "On the Horizon."

"They've shown the capability to be able to reach pretty much all the capitals in Europe from any of the bodies of water that surround Europe," he added.

The Kalibr family of missiles — which includes anti-ship, land-attack, and anti-submarine variants — has been around since the 1990s.

Russia Kalibr missile range distance Europe

The land-attack version can be fired from subs and surface ships and can carry a 1,000-pound warhead to targets between 930 miles and 1,200 miles away, according to CSIS' Missile Defense Project. It is said to fly 65 feet above the sea and at 164 to 492 feet over land.

After the first strikes in Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry said the Kalibr was accurate to "a few meters"— giving them a capability not unlike the US's Tomahawk cruise missiles.

In 2011, the US Office of Naval Intelligence quoted a Russian defense industry official as saying Moscow planned to put the Kalibr on all new nuclear and non-nuclear subs, frigates, and larger ships and that it was likely to be retrofitted on older vessels.

But the system wasn't used in combat until 2015.

In October that year, Russian warships in the Caspian Sea fired 26 Kalibr missiles at ISIS targets in Syria. The submarine Veliky Novgorod fired three Kalibrs from the eastern Mediterranean at ISIS targets in eastern Syria later that month, and that December a Russian sub fired four Kalibrs while en route to its home port on the Black Sea.

'They’re messaging us'

Russian kalibr cruise missiles

Russian surface ships and subs have fired Kalibr missiles at targets in Syria numerous times since. But their use may be more about sending a message to Western foes than gaining an edge in Syria.

"There’s no operational or tactical requirement to do it," NORTHCOM Commander Adm. William Gortney told Congress in early 2016. "They’re messaging us that they have this capability."

Russia has used "Syria as a bit of a test bed for showing off its new submarine capabilities and the ability to shoot cruise missiles from submarines," Magnus Nordenman, the director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told Business Insider earlier this year.

A 2015 Office of Naval Intelligence report cited by Jane's noted that the "Kalibr provides even modest platforms … with significant offensive capability and, with the use of the land attack missile, all platforms have a significant ability to hold distant fixed ground targets at risk using conventional warheads."

Russia navy submarine cruise missile Syria

"The proliferation of this capability within the new Russian Navy is profoundly changing its ability to deter, [or to] threaten or destroy adversary targets," the report said.

While Russia's submarine force is still smaller than its Soviet predecessor, that cruise-missile capability has led some to argue NATO needs to look farther north, beyond the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap that was a chokepoint for Russian submarines entering the Atlantic during the Cold War.

Today's Russian subs "don't have to go very far out in order to hit ports and airports and command and control centers in Europe, so they don't have to approach the GIUK Gap," Nordenman said in a recent interview. "In that sense the GIUK Gap is not as important as it used to be."

'We need to deny that edge'

US Navy Netherlands Dutch navy helicopter submarine NATO

Foggo said US submarines still have the edge, but the subs Russia can deploy "are perhaps some of the most silent and lethal in the world."

Concerns about land-attack missiles now mix with NATO's concern about bringing reinforcements and supplies from the US to Europe during a conflict.

"That's why Russian submarines are a concern," Nordenman said earlier this year. "One, because they can obviously sink ships and so on, but related, you can use cruise missiles to shoot at ports and airfields and so on."

"We know that Russian submarines are in the Atlantic, testing our defenses, confronting out command of the seas, and preparing a very complex underwater battle space to try to give them the edge in any future conflict," Foggo said. "We need to deny that edge."

Boeing P 8 Poseidon

This has led to more emphasis on anti-submarine warfare, a facet of naval combat that NATO forces focused on less after the Cold War.

The US Navy has asked for more money to buy sonobuoys, supplies of which fell critically short after an "unexpected high anti-submarine warfare operational tempo in 2017." NATO members also plan to buy more US-made P-8A Poseidons, widely considered to be the best sub-hunting aircraft on the market.

But the Kalibr's anti-ship capability has also raises questions about whether ASW itself needs to change.

At a conference in early 2017, Lt. Cmdr. Ian Varley, deputy commander of the Royal Navy's Merlin helicopter force, said anti-ship missiles were pushing ASW away from "traditional … close-in, cloak and-dagger fighting" to situations where an enemy submarine "sits 200 miles away and launches a missile at you."

"That becomes an air war," he said. "We need to stop it becoming an air war. We need to be able to have the ability to defend against that."

SEE ALSO: NATO leaders are worried about cyberattacks, but it's not clear they all agree on what that means

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: How Russia's most advanced military equipment stacks up against NATO hardware

America's Syria policy is utterly incoherent and there's no sign it will change anytime soon

0
0

AP_18104679594612

  • The Trump administration's strategy in Syria is difficult to make sense of — it changes its stance over and over. 
  • When Trump entered the White House, he was focused on defeating the Islamic State, but then after Raqqa fell, he appeared to have no clear idea how to turn battlefield success into strategic victory.
  • The confusion escalated late this summer when Trump indicated that the US would not play a role in Syria's reconstruction — then this week, National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that US troops are not leaving Syria.
  • Trump is the antithesis of a strategist — he operates without a discernible vision for the Middle East or American security, or for how to balance security benefits against costs and risks.

As the tragic civil war in Syria grinds through its eighth year, it is impossible to make sense of the Trump administration's strategy as it moves in one direction and then shifts in another, again and again. American policy is utterly incoherent, and there is no sign that will change.

President Donald Trump's position on Syria, expressed more often in tweets than in formal policy statements, vacillated wildly even before he was elected president. In June 2013, for instance, he contended that the United States should "stay the hell out of Syria." But two months later, after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, Trump advocated for a US military strike and vociferously criticized then-President Barack Obama for not ordering one.

Once in the White House, Trump initially focused on defeating the Islamic State, which by that time controlled a miniature, self-proclaimed "caliphate" based in the northern Syrian city of Raqqa. He expanded support for local militias fighting the extremists and increased direct US air and artillery strikes. But after Raqqa fell and the Islamic State dispersed, the Trump administration appeared to have no clear idea how to turn battlefield success into strategic victory. By March 2017, administration officials were saying that the US would not be involved in determining Syria's long-term future. 

But a month later, after another chemical attack by the Assad regime, Trump ordered a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase. "Steps are underway," then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson even suggested, to create an international coalition to remove Assad. A bit later, Tillerson said the US might broker a cease-fire that included Assad, while Nikki Haley, Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, and H.R. McMaster, Trump's national security adviser at the time, both expressed skepticism about a political solution that left Assad in power.

trump announces syria strikes

In the late summer of 2018, the confusion escalated. The president indicated that the US would not play a role in Syria's reconstruction despite reports that US military leaders felt that was necessary to prevent an Islamic State revival. While Trump had indicated that he wanted to "get out of" Syria, administration officials like James Jeffrey, a retired diplomat whom Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently named US special representative for Syrian engagement, said earlier this month that American military forces would remain for some unspecified time. Then, this week, National Security Adviser John Bolton switched to a different objective, announcing that US troops are not leaving Syria "as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders." 

All of this is incoherence, not flexibility. In part, it reflects the broader incoherence of the Trump policy formulation process, where a presidential tweet or off-the-cuff remark can change everything. With no experience at foreign or national security policy, no overarching concept about the purpose of American power, and a personal style focused on disaggregated responses to immediate problems rather than a long-term approach to various challenges, Trump is the antithesis of a strategist. He operates without a discernible vision for the Middle East or American security writ large in the coming decades, or for how to balance security benefits against costs and risks. Trump's senior advisers do have more strategic mindsets but are sometimes themselves at odds and, after staking out a public position, often are contradicted or undercut by the president. 

In the absence of a clear objective in Syria, the best the US can hope for is avoiding an outright fiasco.

U.S. Marines with 3d Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, attached to Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force, Crisis Response-Central Command, prepare to board an MV-22 Osprey on to a site near At-Tanf Garrison, Syria, Sept. 7, 2018.

American policy in Syria is also incoherent because the US, out of all the nations and nonstate groups involved there, has the least clear sense of its strategic priorities. Assad, Turkey, Iran, and Russia all know what they want and what price they are willing to pay to get it; America does not. For a while, the defeat of the Islamic State was paramount, although neither the Obama nor Trump administration fully explained why that was vital for US national security. Then America's objective was to deter chemical attacks, although it was never clear why those were unacceptable while conventional violence was acceptable. At other times, Washington seems concerned by the humanitarian disaster in Syria yet is unwilling to take in refugees. Sometimes the US wants to limit Russian influence, but at other times it doesn't seem to care. Most recently, Bolton linked the presence of American troops in Syria to containing Iran. But no one in the administration has explained how a small US troop deployment will thwart broader Iranian aspirations or deter Tehran from supporting Assad, which it considers a vital national interest. 

At this point, there is no indication that any of this will change and that a coherent Syria policy will emerge. Past American presidents who assumed office with limited national security expertise, like Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, eventually developed a feel for strategy. There is no sign that Trump will. Yet he is unwilling to delegate control of national security policy to one of his senior advisers, in essence making them "strategist in chief." 

With so little chance of the Trump administration setting clear priorities in Syria, questions abound. Is preventing the return of the Islamic State the most important US objective in Syria? Or is it containing Iran? Perhaps preserving regional order? Or maybe maintaining limitations on what dictators can do to their own people? Is it sustaining a security relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally — or helping defend Israel? Something else? No one knows. The best that can be hoped for, then, is avoiding an outright fiasco. But in the face of continuing policy incoherence, there is no guarantee of that.

SEE ALSO: Russia claims it has killed 85,000 terrorists and zero civilians in Syria

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Why horseshoe crab blood is so expensive

A US base in Syria is a huge thorn in Russia and Iran's side — but they can't do much more than complain about it

0
0

Members of 5th Special Forces Group (A) conducting 50. Cal Weapons training during counter ISIS operations at Al Tanf Garrison in southern Syria.

  • Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus have repeatedly accused the US of training Islamic State fighters at the al-Tanf garrison in Syria, but all they've been able to do is complain about it.
  • In reality, the base disrupts the flow of weapons from Iraq to Syria.
  • It also has served as a training ground for Syrian rebels fighting the Syrian government — rebels who US analysts say are not terrorists.

Russia and the Syrian government warned the US in early September that they planned to carry out counterterrorism operations near a key US garrison in southeastern Syria known as al-Tanf, where several hundred Marines have been stationed since at least 2016.

But the US responded with a live-fire exercise, and the Russians backed down.

In fact, the al-Tanf garrison has long drawn the ire of Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus — but all they've been able to do is complain about it.

The Russian state-owned media outlet Sputnik quoted Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem as saying late last month that the US was "gathering the remnants of the Islamic State at this base in order to later send them wage war on the Syrian army."

Late last year, Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov told Russia's Pravda that satellite and other surveillance data indicated "terrorist squads" were stationed at al-Tanf and that terrorists were "effectively training there."

Iran's Press TV cited Gerasimov's quote in an article published this past June titled "US forces training terrorists at 19 camps inside Syria: Russian expert."

Without any real evidence, US adversaries have lobbed many rhetorical attacks against the US forces accusing them of harboring or training terrorists at al-Tanf.

Damascus and Russian state-owned media even claimed in June that the US was preparing a "false flag" chemical attack"identical to the kind that took place in Douma" at al-Tanf.

"The U.S. led Coalition is here to defeat ISIS, first and foremost, and that is the objective of the presence in at al-Tanf," US Army Col. Sean Ryan, a spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, told Business Insider in an email.

"No U.S. troops have trained ISIS and that is just incorrect and misinformation, it is truly amazing some people think that," Ryan said.

The US has trained Syrian rebels at al-Tanf, namely a group called Maghawir al Thawra. Omar Lamrani, a senior military analyst at Stratfor, told Business Insider the group was "fairly secular by regional standards and has been at the forefront of the fight against ISIS."

Lamrani further described the idea that the US is training the Islamic State or like-minded groups at al-Tanf as "certainly absurd."

"To the Russians and Iranians, almost any group fighting against the Syrian government can be labeled a terrorist group," Lamrani said.

So why do Russia, Iran, and the Syrian government care so much about this garrison?

"I'd say that the primary reasons why Iran cares about it so much is, again, it blocks the Baghdad-Damascus highway," Lamrani said. Tehran uses the highway to transport weapons to the Syrian capital of Damascus, where the government is based.

"The reason they want the land route is that it's easier to bring [weapons] across land in greater quantities, and the shipping route is very vulnerable to Israeli interception, and the air route is expensive and often gets hit by Israeli airstrikes," Lamrani added.

Moscow, on the other hand, is upset about al-Tanf, according to Lamrani, because "it's the last area in Syria where the United States is involved with rebels on the ground that are not Syrian Democratic Forces."

The Russians and the Syrian government have "open channels" with the SDF and want to negotiate — not fight — with them, Lamrani added.

But Moscow, Tehran, and the Syrian government's ire might go beyond just stymieing the flow of weapons to Damascus and training rebels.

"There's a history at that garrison at al-Tanf," Max Markusen, an associate director and associate fellow of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider.

"I think that the Syrian regime, the Russians and Iranians, would see it as a [symbolic] victory if the United States pulled out of there than just sort of tactical level objectives," Markusen said, adding that there's much resentment for the US having trained rebels at al-Tanf.

But they haven't sought to use force to expel US troops because "the costs of escalation are too high," Markusen said.

So they're relegated to discrediting the al-Tanf garrison.

Going forward, "we will continue to see an escalation of rhetoric," Markusen said, but "I don't there's going to be a major outbreak of conflict."

SEE ALSO: These incredible photos show how US troops are still hammering ISIS in Syria

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Apple might introduce three new iPhones this year — here’s what we know

F-22 stealth jets got 587 enemy aircraft to back off in their first 'combat surge' over Syria

0
0

F-22 Raptor

  • US F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets just completed their first "combat surge" in operations over Syria, and in doing so deterred almost 600 enemy aircraft.
  • Russian, Syrian, and Iranian combat aircraft all operate in the skies above Syria, and US air assets have frequently deterred or defeated air attacks against US troops there.
  • The F-22s protected US forces when the US struck Syria in April over chemical weapons use by flying deep into enemy territory populated with sophisticated air defenses.

US F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets just completed their first "combat surge" in operations over Syria, and in doing so deterred almost 600 enemy aircraft in the crowded skies there that see Syria, Iranian, and Russian combat aircraft on a regular basis, the Pentagon said.

F-22s, which combine both stealth and top-of-the-line dogfighting abilities, function as both fighter jets and bombers while defending US forces and assisting offensive missions against heavily armed foes.

According to the Pentagon, F-22 pilots from the 94th Fighter Wing completed 590 individual flights, totaling 4,600 flight hours, with 4,250 pounds of ordnance dropped in their deployment to the region in the "first-ever F-22 Raptor combat surge."

The Pentagon said the F-22 "deterred" 587 enemy aircraft in the process, suggesting the jet commands some respect against older, Russian-made models often in operation by Russian and Syrian forces. This surge saw F-22 operations maximized over a three-day period.

Unlike any other battle space today, US forces on the ground in Syria have come under threat from enemy airpower.

F-22s on this deployment escorted US Navy F/A-18s as part of their mission. In June 2017, Lt. Cmdr. Mike "MOB" Tremel, an Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet pilot, scored the US's first air-to-air kill in years after downing a Syrian Su-22 that threatened US forces in the country.

The stealth fighter pilots defended US forces against enemy bomber aircraft and also backed up US, UK, and French forces when they struck Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime in the country's west in response to chemical weapons attacks.

The F-22s flew "deep into Syrian territory, facing both enemy fighters and surface-to-air missile systems," the Pentagon said.

While no US or allied aircraft went down, photos from the most recent US attack on Syria's government show the country's air defenses firing blindly into the night sky as the F-22s worked overhead.

The F-22 has encountered enemy fighter jets above Syria before, but the Pentagon has only reported relatively safe interactions and intercepts.

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: Inside the Trump 'MAGA' hat factory

ISIS smuggled around $400 million out of Syria to fund its reorganizing — and it is ripe for a comeback

0
0

ISIS

  • The Islamic State is ripe for a comeback in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq and Syria.
  • Despite having lost nearly 98% of the territory it once controlled, the group may have smuggled $400 million out of Iraq and Syria.
  • In parts of Iraq, Islamic State sleeper cells are actively conducting surveillance and reconnaissance to determine how best to operate before reorganizing.

Although the Islamic State has lost nearly 98% of the territory it once controlled, the group is ripe for a comeback in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq and Syria.

The main reason is its existing war chest, coupled with its skill at developing new streams of revenue. The Islamic State used to mostly rely on the territory it controlled, including cities and urban strongholds, to amass billions of dollars through extortion, taxation, robbery, and the sale of pilfered oil.

But the group has proven that it is capable of making money even without controlling large population centers.

During the apogee of its territorial control in 2015, the Islamic State accrued nearly $6 billion, making it by far the wealthiest terrorist group in history. How could a militant group compile the equivalent of a nation-state's gross domestic product?

When it did hold territory, the Islamic State primarily generated its wealth from three main sources: oil and gas, which totaled about $500 million in 2015, mostly through internal sales; taxation and extortion, which garnered approximately $360 million in 2015; and the 2014 looting of Mosul, during which the Islamic State stole about $500 million from bank vaults.

ISISThe Islamic State has now lost most of its territory. The group has been relegated from controlling territory roughly equivalent to the size of Great Britain to attempting to survive while under siege in strongholds pockmarking the Euphrates River Valley.

The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS has destroyed the terrorist proto-state in the Middle East and denied its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, his dreams of an Islamic caliphate in the heart of the region. Without access to territory, and thus a significantly reduced revenue stream from taxation, extortion, and the sale of oil, the Islamic State's funding has already decreased precipitously.

The group, however, no longer relies on territory for its economic survival.

In part, that's because its surviving leadership may have smuggled as much as $400 million out of Iraq and Syria. The group's extended network will seek to launder this money through front companies in the region, especially in Turkey. Some cash could be converted to gold and stockpiled for sale in the future.

Meanwhile, even as the Islamic State has far less money coming in, the group's expenses are minimal compared to what they were just over a year ago. No pseudo-government is responsible for health care, education, paying municipal salaries, and providing public works, including trash and sewage services.

With such a drastically reduced operating budget, the cash it has hoarded will provide the group with more than enough money to survive as a clandestine terrorist movement with the ability to wage a prolonged campaign of guerrilla warfare throughout Iraq and Syria.

The Islamic State has also buttressed financial holdings with a diversified funding portfolio. It has developed a knack for raising money through a range of new criminal activities, including but not limited to extortion, kidnapping for ransom, robbery and theft, drug smuggling, and trafficking in antiquities.

ISIS billboardThese activities do not require holding territory, but there are risks involved for individual insurgents, who could, at least in theory, be caught. However, the chances of being arrested are minimal, as even at this late date, there are still no security services or police forces in Iraq or Syria capable of conducting the type of policing activities that would deter widespread criminality.

In the near future, the group can also reinvigorate revenue streams that have become dormant by extorting populations living on the periphery of where government control extends. During the years they were in control, Islamic State members meticulously collected personal data from the population that includes detailed information on assets and income, as well as the addresses of extended family members.

This critical intelligence on the population provides the group with more leverage in intimidating and extorting civilians, allowing it to replenish cash reserves in the process.

In addition to extortion, another way the Islamic State can continue to make money without holding physical territory is by extorting the reconstruction of Mosul and other devastated cities.

The Islamic State's predecessor organizations, al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq, perfected the art of extorting construction companies and other entities attempting to help rebuild cities, towns, and villages trying to recover from years of brutal sectarian conflict in Iraq.

At no point did these groups control anywhere near the amount of territory once controlled by the Islamic State. Yet between 2006 and 2009, they were still able to raise substantial sums of money by extorting local and regional oil distribution networks.

This same process could very likely repeat itself over the next several years as the international community seeks to help Iraq and Syria recover from a decade of civil war. Reconstruction aid to war-torn parts of Iraq and Syria, while well intentioned, could provide an attractive target for the Islamic State and potentially help fund its comeback, something the groups could accomplish even without holding large swaths of territory.

It would be easy for the Islamic State to begin skimming off reconstruction contracts; militants would simply need to establish connections with local officials tied to reconstruction projects and insert their own operatives into the supply chain, pocketing various sums of money at each step of the process.

The militants work to ensure that the project is ultimately completed, albeit at an inflated price to account for the money siphoned off into the militants' pockets.

The Islamic State hasn't ceased seeking to control territory. Around Deir Ezzor, in advance of the pending assault by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Islamic State is seeking to regain control of oil assets.

According to a United Nations Security Council report from July, the group has regained control of oil fields in northeastern Syria and continues to extract oil for use by its fighters — and to sell to locals. But even after these fields are inevitably reclaimed, with the help of US forces, the Islamic State will simply revert back to criminal activities that do not require the maintenance of physical territory.

The combination of current assets and a future ability to earn money will allow the group to regroup and reorganize, which has already begun happening in various parts of Iraq and Syria. Throughout Kirkuk in northern Iraq, militants constructed fake checkpoints to ambush Iraqi security forces operating in the area earlier this year.

In other parts of Iraq, including Diyala and Saladin, Islamic State sleeper cells are actively conducting surveillance and reconnaissance of these areas to determine how best to operate before reorganizing small formations of fighters. And despite the onslaught of US bombing raids, pockets of militants remain holed up in Hajin, north of Abu Kamal, and Dashisha, in Syria.

The West tends to view the fight against the Islamic State in discrete phases, bookended by presidential administrations or minor changes in policy. But for the jihadis, it's all one long campaign and has been since the early days of its founder, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Until the United States and its allies recognize this, the Islamic State is likely to repeat its strategy of going underground before re-emerging in force in perpetuity until the United States completely withdraws its military forces, or until the group is once again able to recapture enough territory to re-engineer the next stage of its caliphate-building project.

Colin P. Clarke is a political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan Rand Corp. and an associate fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague.

SEE ALSO: The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is even stranger than it seems

SEE ALSO: Here's what the major world powers will look like in 2025, according to a Harvard professor

SEE ALSO: The tension between China and the US is about more than just trade

Join the conversation about this story »

NOW WATCH: 3 compelling reasons why we haven't found aliens yet

Viewing all 4970 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images